@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote: Oh, I see, your (original) assertion that if Obama loses it will certainly be a result of the bigotry of the electorate is a rational insight into the motives of Americans, while my assertion, that this too involves the same prejudgement of the motives or worth of others, is necessarily irrational.
Why are you insisting on sticking with this straw man fantasy? Care to quote where my "...(original) assertion that if Obama loses it will
certainly be a result of the bigotry..."? No. You don't... because I never made it, and you damn well know it (
I quoted what I did write in my last post). Hell; here it is again, George.
Quote:All together; I think it will prove a sufficiently strong ticket to overcome the latent bigotry that so few want to acknowledge.
You can not reasonably extrapolate your straw man from this statement, George. It
is possible that enough extra black voters will get out and vote and offset the bigot vote (hell, I intend to do that very thing myself)... but that would be a factor in
overcoming the bigot vote. It doesn't erase it. Any way you slice it; there
will be a bigot vote. You can accept this simple matter of fact or not... but there is nothing rational about denying it. That being the case; it can only be considered a rational worry. Further complicating your straw man will not change this simple matter of fact. Whether Obama wins or loses; it requires deliberately obtuse denial to pretend latent bigotry will not have been a factor.
There is no debate between us that measuring this will be impossible. But neither should there be any debate that bigotry will be a factor to
some extent.
georgeob1 wrote:I simply don't agree.
Simple, yes… but you’re trying to obscure it with complications.
georgeob1 wrote: OCCOM BILL wrote:Your defense amounts to a somewhat complicated straw man: Someone points out that some portion of the anti-Obama crowd are bigots... and that this will need to be overcome to win. This is a simple matter of fact, George. You race in to show that it is presumptive and false to accuse all anti-Obama people of being bigots. This is true, of course, but I've yet to see anyone present that argument, save righties like yourself erecting straw men in order to bury the simple truth that latent bigotry is advantageous to the McCain campaign.
In the first place I am not a "rightie": I am simply myself, and I believe it would be more decorous of you to resist the liberal application of such categorical labels to others. Someone might even accuse you of latent bigotry.
I do not attach any judgment whatsoever to terms like lefty, righty, liberal, etc and use them only to identify political leanings. My apologies if you took offence to "righties" and assure you no offense was intended.
georgeob1 wrote: In the second, it is not at all evident that the net effect of "latent bigotry", both black and white, will yield a disadvantage to Obama. You postulated a very narrow margin in the result, using that to demonstrate the plausibility of your argument. Given the difference between the historical and the likely current distribution of the votes of blacks, such a difference could well be delivered by them. In short there are effects here that work both to his advantage and his disadvantage. Given the widespread and enthusiastic support for him, and the fact that so far it appears to follow the predictable political, economic and demographis lines in the electorate, I believe there is a very good case to be made for the proposition that racism is not a prominent issue in the campaign.
It matters little whether racism is a prominent issue. There will be a bigot vote and Obama will need to overcome it to win. This remains a simple matter of fact.
georgeob1 wrote: I did allow for the possibility of racism being offered as the reason for a defeat in an unusually narrow outcome, and the impossibility of proving the negative with respect to this or a host of other explanations for it. If you wish to retreat to that, then I can have no objection.
You are being ridiculous George. There is no retreat required on my part to meet you there. None.
georgeob1 wrote: However, I believe your rather broad prejudgement of actions not yet taken by American voters is unmerited.
I made no broad prejudgment of actions not yet taken, beyond pointing out
some bigots will vote against Obama because he's got dark skin. This remains a simple matter of fact.
georgeob1 wrote: OCCOM BILL wrote:I find it offensive because you are essentially giving the bigots a pass in the process... and that was before you decided to compare my rational fear of latent bigotry to the irrational fears of the bigots themselves. Again; this is not even remotely similar, George, let alone "precisely the same."
I don't think I am giving anyone a pass. I am merely refraining from prejudging the intent of people in the case of actions they have not yet taken. It is conceivable that the outcome of the election could indicate that racism was a likely significant factor, based on some statistical analysis. In such a case I wouldn't deny it. However, I don't think it appropriate to assert in advance that, if Obama loses, racism is the necessary explanation. THAT IS irrational.
YES IT WOULD BE. I'll join you in denouncing such a silly statement if anyone makes it. Meanwhile; it will remain your straw man.
georgeob1 wrote: OCCOM BILL wrote:In half the elections in my lifetime; a very small percentage of the electorate changing sides (be it for rational reason or something irrational like bigotry), would have been sufficient to sway these elections. This is a rational concern, George.
Here I agree. However in each of these close elections it has been impossibble to pin down with even overwhelming confidence (if not certainty) exactly what were the motivatiuonal factors that determined the result. You are postulating that the motives are knowable in advance.
Nonsense. Your straw man has me postulating that. I've not used even "overwhelming confidence" let alone certainty… beyond being overwhelmingly confident to the point of certainty that bigots
will participate in November.
OCCOM BILL wrote: It is not "precisely the same" type of reasoning employed by bigots. Correct yourself.
OK, it is not "precisely" the same type of reasoning: I stand corrected. However it is damn close.
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Hate to use the rollers on you George, but you really are being ridiculous.