14
   

So....Will Biden Be VP?

 
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 04:14 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn wrote:
1) He's not Hillary Clinton. She would have helped him win in November far more than Biden will. She and Bill would have given him fits after he won, but win first and then worry about how to control the Clintons.


Why do you think that?
blueveinedthrobber
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 04:16 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
I agree completely.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  0  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 07:55 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

Thanks Snood.

George: You need look no further than Okie to see why the type of denial you are employing annoys me. Three paragraphs he writes without acknowledging the simple fact that latent bigotry exists and that it will work to the detriment of Obama. While I fully expect this type of idiotic denial from Okie; I don't expect anything of the sort from you.


Nobody says bigotry and racism does not exist, Bill, but you seem to think that it lies at the root of everything you see out there. I have to wonder about your particular obsession about it.

How many people are voting for Obama because he IS black? Are those people bigoted and racists as well?

I don't think that Kerry or Gore lost because of racism or bigotry, they lost because they were too liberal. And I think Obama has been leading in the polls consisently, and if he loses, I don't think the switch in voter preference is going to be because of racism or bigotry, it will be due to other factors. Alot of people are wanting to vote for a good minority, in whom they have confidence, just to shut people up like you.

The main reason I am on your case is because you have called several of us here racists and / or bigots, basically out of the blue, as if you have nothing better to do, with no evidence to back your claim. When you begin to lose an argument on evidence, you call your opponent a racist, a bigot, a moron, or stupid. Your stock has certainly plummeted in my opinion, after reading your input over a period of time. But I am not going to call you a moron, stupid, a racist, or a bigot, I just think you are what you are, misguided with a few misconceptions.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 07:59 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Good observation, Finn, I agree. When people frame their success in those terms, that is what will happen, sorry to say. I would much rather somebody run on their policy and politics, and character, not race. It would be a breath of fresh air. Obama has hinted at the race card, but some of his supporters are perhaps more guilty than he is, but yes, if he loses, there will be alot of people wanting to accuse those of voting against him as racists and bigots, and at the front of the line is apparently Bill. I think it is a sad reflection on them and their mindset.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 08:09 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

Nobody says bigotry and racism does not exist, Bill, but you seem to think that it lies at the root of everything you see out there.

And the straw man keeps being added to ...

How's about addressing what the guy actually wrote, instead?
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  4  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 08:18 pm
@sozobe,
The biggest knocks on picking Hillary is still there with Biden: the "change" theme with an old Washington insider, the vote for Iraq etc.

Hillary comes with a bigger base of supporters than Biden and would have guaranteed a win by my estimate, while Biden doesn't make any positive difference.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 08:37 pm
@Robert Gentel,
on the other had a lot of moderates would have lost all remaining respect for obama if he had picked Hillary, he already tends to look spineless. I am not confident that you calculus is accurate.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 08:47 pm
@hawkeye10,
"Moderates" is a shifting demographic, depending on who uses it, so what specific demographic do you have in mind?

Hillary's biggest drawback is that she would represent another "first" in my opinion. I don't think there's a big "moderates" problem with her (hardcore Republicans don't like her but they aren't moderates), but like I said that term means whatever demographic the user imagines.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 09:17 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

When you begin to lose an argument on evidence, you call your opponent a racist, a bigot, a moron, or stupid. Your stock has certainly plummeted in my opinion, after reading your input over a period of time. But I am not going to call you a moron, stupid, a racist, or a bigot, I just think you are what you are, misguided with a few misconceptions.
Rolling Eyes This is your standard bullshit, Okie. I have never so much have implied let alone accused George, Lash, Finn, Asherman, etc of being racist, bigoted, stupid or moronic... and these are people who largely share your idiology. You are an idiot. That's not my standard fare; that is my assessment of you. It has everything to do with you, not me. The water boy is a bigot, pure and simple. That has everything to do with him, not me. This bullshit about I accuse everybody is as tired as it is false.
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Sun 24 Aug, 2008 10:03 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

Thanks Snood.

George: You need look no further than Okie to see why the type of denial you are employing annoys me. Three paragraphs he writes without acknowledging the simple fact that latent bigotry exists and that it will work to the detriment of Obama. While I fully expect this type of idiotic denial from Okie; I don't expect anything of the sort from you.


Well, I don't think I have employed any type of denial, benign or otherwise., and don't therefore acknowledge any reason for your annoyance if it exists. Bigotry of all sorts pervades mankind all over the world and it takes many objects and forms. Despite this we find - in most cases - other causes for the choices peope make than bigotry. (Frankly I'm not sure what added meaning the modifer "latent" adds to it.)

I don't think I have obfuscated or been oblivious either.

The history of exploitation and racism visited on blacks in this country is well enough known, and its effects have been pervasive and bad - for everyone, but them far more so. However the pace of change in this aspect of American life has been very rapid in the last two generations, and we have reached a point where individual achievement readily overcomes such foolish distinctions in a rapidly increasing number of cases. That is the essential point here. This election is not a contest between a "typical" black and a "typical" white man: it is a contest between individuals of different political parties, each representing different perspectives on key issues important to most Americans, each posessed of distinct individual characteristics of which skin color is decidedly secondary.

To illustrate, while I believe the odds of an inner city black man in (say) central Baltimore of escaping his environment are not good; neither are they good for his white counterpart on the west side in "pigtown" (that is what they call it) . In an analogous way, I believe the likelihood of the child of a white woman and a black man who had the ability and good fortune to graduate from Harvard law School; edit the Law Review; become elected to a state legislature and then to the United States Senate, to become elected as president of the United States is every bit as good as that of most white politicians of similar rank and experience. Moreover the events of the last year amply demonstrate the truth of this proposition.

For someone to suggest that the necessary (or even most likely) explanation for the defeat of such a candidate in a presidential election - after an exhausting campaign involving numerous, hotly debated political issues with well-known potential direct effects on most everyone - is his skin color, involves a rather sweeping, categorical prejudgement of the basically unknowable motives of large numbers of people. Moreover it is almost certainly based on similar, implied categorical premises such as that the election is between a "typical" white man and a "typical" black man, when in fact it is between two very individual people whose other attributes and political positions are key elements in the contest. While this kind of sloppy, categorical thinking is perhaps not as vile as the categorical prejudgements involved in racial, ethnic or religious prejudice, its deficiencies from a logical perspective are every bit as great. It is that to which I was referring when I made the comparison in your case.

I believe many Americans of all racial/ethnic backgrounds (how many I don't know) are bouyed up and excited about the idea of the election of the first black president of this country. It is a naturally appealing idea which in many ways can be seen as vindicating the best and most central premise of this nation - namely that all men are created equal - and symbolizing the long road we have travelled in making our reality approach this ideal. I have felt this myself, and it was only after serious consideration of the concrete issues and positions that I reached my own conclusion. I'm sure there are some (again, how many I don't know) who may be influenced by unthinking, unreasoning racism in the matter. However, particularly in view of these two competing impulses, and in addition the plethora of well-defined political/policy issues, I find it very far from obvious that the necessary or even likely explanation for an Obama defeat (should it happen, and right now the odds are against it) should be racism, "latent" or otherwise. Indeed, I find such a conclusion to be offensive to common sense, logic, and the character of our nation, excusable only by the lazy, sloppy, categorical thinking on which it is likely based.

I didn't follow the disputes between you and okie, so I have no opinion. In my exchanges with him I have not found any of the attributes you indicate.

(BTW - did you know that "Barack" is a Hebrew name?)
OCCOM BILL
 
  0  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 12:21 am
@georgeob1,
George: Need I gather exit polling data to demonstrate for you that older Americans tend to vote against the black man in greater numbers, consistently?
(Latent racism)
Need I explain what is meant by the "Bradley effect"?
(Latent racism)

Yes, Obama's struggle to overcome the prejudice against his skin color probably wasn't the same as your average black from central Baltimore. So what? Do you doubt there exists millions of Americans out there who may not think of themselves as racist, don’t see Obama as your typical “boy from the hood”; but still wouldn't vote for a "chocolate Jesus" or some such slur?

You're a bright guy, George. Surely it can't be difficult for you to understand that racism need not inflict more than a small percentage of the electorate to affect the outcome in even a somewhat tight race, which this could well turn out to be (you’ve essentially already conceded as much). Surely you recognize that although there may be many significant contributing factors in a candidate's loss; the absence of any one of them could alter the outcome. If this is true (and it is), and you can recognize these simple truths (and you can); how can you continue to pretend fears of racism are necessarily irrational accusations against the whole of Obama's opposition? This is a pathetic straw man, George, and you should damn well have the integrity to admit it.

Recognition of the simple FACT that bigotry could sway the election bears no resemblance to the irrational hatred exhibited by bigots themselves... and I'm becoming pretty damned insulted that someone of your obvious intelligence is pretending otherwise, presumably just to avoid admitting a relatively minor error. Again: I expect this type of idiocy from Okie... but it looks terrible on you. Rolling Eyes

Ps. No... I didn't know Barack was a Hebrew name... though I think I've heard that before... but I don't see the significance...?
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 01:28 am
Technically, it's more of a semitic/Arabic name then a Hebrew name.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  2  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:20 am
@sozobe,
Biden said he'd be proud to run with McC or against him....resounding praise for McC....is hard to step away from---was my thought. I don't think it's obvious that he thought---pre-VP tap, that Obama was better. He said Obama wasn't ready. of course, he has to step away from that now...but those words will be heard A LOT from now on...
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:21 am
@blueveinedthrobber,
Biden would have been the better choice....if he had a muzzle for a VP....
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:31 am
@Lash,
I just don't see it having a big impact.

No matter what, but especially if McCain chooses Romney.
Lash
 
  2  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:38 am
@sozobe,
I'm sorta separating the two, Soz. I don't think McC really has a possible pick that would excite the party.... But, Hillary's angry constituents are threatening to leave the Dems this cycle. Is THAT being discussed? (Can't find a thread about it) The VP announcement should have given Obama a bump. He didn't get one. I wonder if it could be the mass exodus of Hillary supporters, showing their muscle.

I think the worst thing the Dem ticket will suffer is in-fighting. The party should be unified at this point behind their nominee. I think we're going to see one of the most interesting (and divisive) conventions in recent time this week. I think someone is going to try to fight Obama's nomination and wrestle it for Hillary.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:43 am
http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/clinton-bundler-democratic-nomination-still-grabs
A call for a Hillary take over....
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  4  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 08:50 am
@Lash,
I think it's been discussed here and there. I really think the threat of Hillary supporters leaving is overblown.

First Read today:

Quote:
But a brand-new Washington Post/ABC poll also had Obama getting more Clinton support than he’s ever received since she dropped out of the race back in June. No doubt Obama still has some work to do, and he has two-plus months -- including this convention -- to make the sale. But the point we’re trying to make is that perhaps the Dem Party is more unified than PUMA-on-the-street interviews might suggest. Indeed, today’s New York Times/CBS poll of Dem convention delegates probably has it right: 60% of Hillary’s delegates enthusiastically support Obama, 31% support him with reservations or because he’s the nominee, and 5% don’t support him at all.


Lash wrote:
The VP announcement should have given Obama a bump. He didn't get one.


Bumps take way longer than that to appear, especially when the bumping event happens on a weekend. As in, if there is going to be a bump from Biden, it wouldn't have appeared yet. (I'm forgetting that big thing from the primary -- Penn exulted about how [something -- what was it??] didn't accord Obama a bump, and all these pollsters were like dude, do you know ANYTHING about polling? It wouldn't have happened yet! And then boom, there was a big bump a few days after that and Penn had to eat his words.)
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 09:15 am
@sozobe,
It's true that polls can't show instant bump-feedback... but markets can:

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/6830/obamabumptf8.jpg
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2008 09:38 am
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

Bumps take way longer than that to appear, especially when the bumping event happens on a weekend. As in, if there is going to be a bump from Biden, it wouldn't have appeared yet. (I'm forgetting that big thing from the primary -- Penn exulted about how [something -- what was it??] didn't accord Obama a bump, and all these pollsters were like dude, do you know ANYTHING about polling? It wouldn't have happened yet! And then boom, there was a big bump a few days after that and Penn had to eat his words.)


It was the Iowa caucuses that you are remembering, but the "where's the bounce" or "where's the bump" has been asked prematurely over and over this year (the last one I remember was the Obama World Tour). But the time Penn issued a memo (and curiously, his blog post is no longer available on the Hillary blog but can still be seen temporarily in Google's cache) about it was after Iowa. It was pretty funny, because the next day when the bounce happened, he discredited the same polling that showed the bounce that he used to assert there was no bounce the day before.

He didn't eat his words, he started talking about inaccurate polls and dug a deeper hole.
 

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