2008 Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections

34 people had kicked this thread and none had guts to give rational views.

"It was the worst of times, it was the worser of times." -- The National Republican Congressional Committee

ILLINOIS 11 -- What if they held an election and the winner didn't show up?

That's almost what happened to the Republicans in the Illinois 11th congressional district. But first, a bit of background to explain how the GOP arrived at their embarrassing predicament.

Republican Jerry Weller had represented IL-11 since he was first elected to that post in 1994. He routinely beat his Democratic opponents by double-digit margins in this solidly Republican T-shaped district south of Chicago, and no doubt if he had led a dull, blameless life he could have expected to be re-elected by his placidly ruminant constituents well into his dotage. But Weller had some problems stemming from his marriage to another congresswoman. No, he had not cast his amorous glances across the floor of the House of Representatives or expressed his love physically in the senate cloakroom (unlike Warren Harding -- allegedly). Rather, he set his sights on congresswoman Zury Rios Montt, a member of the Guatemalan congress and the daughter of that country's former dictator. More importantly, his interest in Latin American affairs extended beyond his wife to include real estate in Nicaragua. It appears that he purchased some land there which he failed to disclose in violation of federal law. As investigations proceeded into his land dealings, more and more questions arose to which Weller was unable to give satisfactory answers -- or even any answers at all. Ultimately, rather than face this sort of scrutiny from liberal media outlets, such as the Chicago Tribune, Weller announced that he would not run for re-election in 2008.

The Democrats, sensing an opportunity to pick up an open seat, recruited Debbie Halvorson, the majority leader in the Illinois senate and a popular local politician. The GOP, in contrast, had some troubles getting anybody to run for the seat. Now, remember that this is a district that George W. Bush carried in 2004 by seven percentage points against John Kerry. A wax figure of a Republican should have been able to win this seat. Ultimately, Tim Baldermann, mayor of tiny exurban hamlet New Lennox and chief of police in Chicago Ridge (how does he do that?) won the Feb. 5 primary over two opponents.

Baldermann, however, quit the race two weeks after he won. He cited the challenges of running for congress while being simultaneously the mayor of one town and the chief of police in another (how does he do that?). More likely, he just wasn't that interested in running a vigorous campaign against a well-funded and popular Democrat in a district that should be a walk-over for the Republican candidate.

Local GOP officials were stunned by Baldermann's announcement and were forced to find a replacement tout de suite. This is never a good situation for Illinois Republicans: after all, the last time they had to replace a primary winner who dropped out of a race, they came up with Alan Keyes. Clearly an ominous precedent. They ultimately settled on Martin "Marty" Ozinga, a concrete and construction firm executive who has never held public office before. Although he lacks experience, he does have one thing that the Republicans desperately need: money. Ozinga can be expected to self-fund much of his campaign, which is critical given the enormous head-start that Halvorson has gained in this race.

As of right now, CQPolitics rates this race as "leans Democrat," a remarkable result given the demographics of the district. This isn't one of the suburban Chicago districts that have gone blue over the past few elections (such as IL-8 and IL-14). IL-11 is, for the most part, corn country, and Republicans should win this one easily. That the Democrats even have a chance here (let alone a good chance) is due almost entirely to the GOP's missteps.

OREGON 5 -- This is a cautionary tale that demonstrates the truth of the old adage: "love is fleeting, but paying for your girlfriend's abortion is something you'll be able to cherish for the rest of your life."

Democrat Darlene Hooley was first elected to this district in 1996. In February, she unexpectedly announced that she would not run for re-election, creating a rare open seat that Republicans were eager to pick up. OR-5, in northwestern Oregon, stretches from the suburbs of Portland to Corvallis and includes the state capital of Salem. It's a true swing district, with Bush the Younger barely defeating both Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential elections. If the GOP was going to poach a Democratic district north of the Mason-Dixon line, it would have been OR-5.

For the GOP, this unique opportunity demanded that it unite quickly behind a candidate with impeccable moderate-conservative credentials. And that's exactly what didn't happen. Two candidates, Kevin Mannix and Mike Erickson, contested the Republican primary by trying to out-conservative each other. Lagging in the polls and nearing the election date, Mannix dropped a bombshell:according to a second-hand report, his "pro-life" opponent had impregnated a former girlfriend and paid for her abortion. Erickson denied the accusation, although his history as a serial fabricator perhaps should have raised some suspicions about the veracity of his denials.

Nevertheless, the Republican voters of OR-5 gave Erickson the primary victory. It was only after his election victory that the former girlfriend, Tawnya "Last Name Withheld," came forward andsubstantiated the heretofore hearsay allegations against Erickson. "Oh, you meant that girlfriend," was Erickson's response. OK, that wasn't Erickson's actual response, but it was pretty close. Erickson claimed that the story wouldn't hurt him, because voters already suspected that he had paid for his girlfriend's abortion and still elected him as the GOP nominee. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Meanwhile, Oregon Right To Life specifically refused to endorse Erickson in the general election, as did primary opponent Mannix, who had previously called Erickson a "political sociopath" (as opposed to a "social sociopath" I suppose, or something like that). And while all of this was happening, the Democrats quietly nominated state senator Kurt Schrader for Hooley's seat, which now appears to be a safe bet to remain in the D column as the Republicans gnash their teeth and rend their garments in despair at the opportunity that has slipped through their fingers.

NEW YORK 13 -- Don't you just hate it when a routine traffic stop results in the revelation of your second family and the destruction of your career? Yeah, I hate that too.

GOP congressman Vito Fossella had the distinction of representing the only district in New York City that apparently contained any Republicans. NY-13, which consists of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn, had previously been represented by Susan Molinari, the perkiest damned Reagan Republican ever to appear on the American political stage (like Jerry Weller, she also married a congressman: unlike Weller, though, she married an American congressman -- smart choice). Elected in 1997 and re-elected by comfortable margins thereafter, Fossella continued the tradition of Staten Island Republicans thumbing their collective nose at all of those "big city" Democrats just a ferry ride away.

Fossella had a rather undistinguished career in the House, which, apparently, contrasted sharply with the torrid private life that he conducted during his off-hours. In the early hours of May 1, Fossella was pulled over by an Alexandria, VA patrolman and arrested for driving while intoxicated. Initial news reports failed to note that Fossella was held at the Alexandria police station after blowing a .17 blood alcohol content and that, while there, he made his one phone call to Laura Fay, a woman who was definitely not Mrs. Fossella (or his sick friend, whom Fossella had reportedly said he was visiting at the time of his arrest, or even his sick daughter, whom Fossella had said he was visiting at the time of his arrest before he changed his story to the one about his sick friend -- wait, this gets more complicated).

When it was discovered that Fay had bailed out Fossella, the gig, as they say on "the Island," was up. Not only was Fay Fossella's choice as "life line" in his own personal game of "Who Wants to be a Lurid Headline in the New York Post," she turned out to be his mistress and the mother of their three-year old daughter. Yes, Fossella, it turns out, was so "pro-family" that he had twice as many as most of his constituents. That's dedication to principle.

Staten Islanders can be forgiving of many personal failings (such as excessive perkiness), but this was too much even for the normally placid islanders, sitting in their grass shacks and weaving palm fronds into placemats bearing the likeness of Rudy Giuliani. Although he initially vowed to fight for re-election in the November election, Fossella quickly saw the writing on the wall (which may have included Laura Fay's telephone number) and he withdrew from the race. That set the local GOP into a frenzy of inactivity, as it proved absolutely incapable of finding a replacement candidate for the vacant ballot spot. Ultimately, the party decided on former Wall Street executive Frank Powers, who was inexplicably not of Italian descent and who showed his appreciation by promptly dying.

Powers's unauthorized death, which had not been cleared beforehand by party officials, exacerbated a rift between the Staten Island and Brooklyn wings of the local Republican Party. Brooklynites wanted to nominate Paul Atanasio, whose only problem seemed to be that he's not a Republican. Staten Islanders, in contrast, seemed content to run Powers, whose only problem was that he seemed unwilling to reconsider the whole death thing. Finally, they all settled on former state assemblyman Robert Straniere -- all, that is, except, Guy Molinari, local bigwig of the Staten Island GOP and father of Debbie Molinari. And so it all comes around to where we began -- life is indeed a circle.

As all of this was going on, the Democrats, without nearly as much drama, picked city councilman Mike McMahon, who has no opposition in the September primary and has a good chance to prevail against the fractured Republican opposition in November. Meanwhile, in the three months since Fossella's arrest, the CQPolitics rating for this district went from "Republican safe" to "No clear favorite" to "Democratic favored."

Given some pretty low approval rates for congress, we can expect lots of turnover. Not.

Sorry, that's Susan Molinari, not Debbie.

Is the following too cynical?


A bus filled with politicians was traveling down a country highway when, all of a sudden, it ran off the road and crashed into a tree in an old farmer's field. The farmer, after seeing what had happened, went over to investigate. He then proceeded to dig a hole and buried all the politicians.

A few days later, the local sheriff came out, saw the crashed bus, and asked the old farmer where all the politicians had gone. The old farmer said he had buried them.

The sheriff asked the old farmer, "Were they all dead?" The old farmer replied, "Well, some of them said they weren't, but you know you can't believe anything they tell you!"

Not cynical but jocular indeed.