Voter Unease With Obama Lingers

Voter Unease With Obama
Lingers Despite His Lead
Poll Finds Background, Experience
Are Advantages for McCain

By GERALD F. SEIB and LAURA MECKLER
July 24, 2008; Page A1

WASHINGTON -- Midway through the election year, the presidential campaign looks less like a race between two candidates than a referendum on one of them -- Sen. Barack Obama.

With the nominations of both parties effectively settled for more than a month, the key question in the contest isn't over any single issue being debated between the Democrats' Sen. Obama or the Republicans' Sen. John McCain. The focus has turned to the Democratic candidate himself: Can Americans get comfortable with the background and experience level of Sen. Obama?

This dynamic is underscored in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. The survey's most striking finding: Fully half of all voters say they are focused on what kind of president Sen. Obama would be as they decide how they will vote, while only a quarter say they are focused on what kind of president Sen. McCain would be.

The challenge that presents for Sen. Obama is illustrated by a second question. When voters were asked whether they could identify with the background and values of the two candidates, 58% said they could identify with Sen. McCain on that account, while 47% said the same of Sen. Obama. More than four in 10 said the Democratic contender doesn't have values and a background they can identify with.
NEW POLL

Those findings suggest voters' views of Sen. Obama are more fluid than his relatively steady lead indicates. In the latest poll, 47% say they prefer Sen. Obama to win, while 41% say Sen. McCain, the same lead Sen. Obama enjoyed a month ago. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The campaign's unusual dynamic appears to be the result of an anxious nation now sizing up an unconventional candidate who presents himself as the agent for change, which voters say they want. The contest thus parallels in some ways the 1980 race, when voters seemed ready for a change away from Jimmy Carter and the Democrats, but weren't persuaded until late in the race that they could be comfortable with a former actor and unabashed conservative, Ronald Reagan, as commander in chief.

"Obama is going to be the point person in this election," says pollster Peter Hart, a Democrat who conducts the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll along with Republican Neil Newhouse. "Voters want to answer a simple question: Is Barack Obama safe?"

If the answer is yes, then Sen. Obama stands to benefit further from a favorable environment for Democrats. If no, Sen. McCain is seen by a wide swath of Americans as a safe, well-qualified potential commander in chief. The poll was taken Friday through Monday, before much of the extensive press coverage of Sen. Obama's trip this week to the Middle East and Europe, meant to build his credibility.
The poll shows this campaign is about Barack Obama, not John McCain, Gerald F. Seib reports.

Sen. Obama is in the odd position of having unusually passionate backing from his supporters -- his voters are three times as likely to say they are excited about their choice as are Sen. McCain's -- while he has failed so far to win over some other Democratic-leaning voters who could be expected to be on his side. A higher share of voters say they want a Democrat in general to sit in the White House than say that they want Sen. Obama specifically.

That reading suggests there is potential for the Obama lead to grow -- but his lead could prove to be tenuous.

"This is not Obama's race to lose. It's his to win," says Mr. Newhouse, the Republican pollster. "Voters have a sense they know what they're going to get if they elect John McCain, but an uncertainty about Barack Obama that they are trying to sort through."

Issues are playing a big role, of course. Sen. Obama benefits from a climate of economic anxiety that works against Republicans, who tend to take the blame for today's economic woes because they have controlled the White House for seven years. In the survey, a substantial 74% of voters said the country is on the wrong track, the largest share to voice that view in the two-decade history of the poll. That number usually is a reflection of economic jitters.

Nearly a quarter of those surveyed said they are "barely getting by economically." Energy, including gasoline and utility costs, ranks as the economic issue that voters said most affects them personally.

The problem for Republicans -- and an advantage for Sen. Obama -- is that voters also said, by substantial margins, that Democrats would do a better job handling both the economy overall and energy in particular.

The excitement and the uncertainties about the Obama campaign flow from his unusual personal profile. Not only is he the first African-American to win a major party's nomination: He also was raised by a single white mother, spent his formative years in Hawaii and Indonesia, got an Ivy League law degree, has been in the Senate less than four years, attended a controversial African-American church, and is married to a strong professional woman who has stirred up some controversy herself.

Interviews with voters suggest that while many who seek change in the White House are excited by that profile, others will need time to digest it -- and some may never do so.

Patti Carr, 59 years old, of Collierville, Tenn., outside Memphis, says she voted for Democrats Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. But she isn't yet sold on Barack Obama. His experience is giving her pause.

"I see Obama as a very nice person but I don't believe he has the experience at this time to be president," she says. "He's new, he's young and he still has a lot to learn, I believe." She leans for now toward Sen. McCain, but is open to persuasion.
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Riki Frank, 44, a graphic artist and stay-at-home dad from Auburn, Wash., leans toward Sen. Obama, but hesitates because of his personal background.

"I'm a white-bread American. I was raised in Iowa. I got the Midwestern work ethic," says Mr. Frank. "He's a black man. His name -- is unique. It's definitely not a Catholic name. He's kind of way off the pattern of the norm of what I grew up with. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Just because I can't relate to the person doesn't mean it's a bad thing."

The two presidential campaigns know this is the dynamic, and are responding in their strategies.

The Obama campaign says voters' yearning to come to terms with their candidate represents an opportunity to paint a full portrait. "We still have at this late date in the campaign a lot of voters who don't know a lot about Obama in terms of his values and background," says David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager. "There are a lot of people who are going to play a pivotal role in the election who don't know he was raised by a single mom, and whose grandparents were from Kansas, not of great means, who struggled financially...I think sometimes people think he's led some kind of charmed existence, and nothing could be further from the truth." Mr. Plouffe contends the opening to explain the Obama background is "all upside."

The danger for Mr. Obama is that blank spaces in Americans' understanding could be filled in by rumor or misinformation -- the kind that holds, incorrectly, that he's a Muslim rather than a Christian, or that he refuses to salute the American flag.

That challenge is reflected in the views of Beth Brotherton, 43, of Taylorville, Ill., an attorney now staying home to care for her four children. She leans Democratic, but is uncomfortable with Sen. Obama. "I don't want to find out after he's elected that he's got some kind of Islamic connection. I don't think that's true, but you never know," she said.

The Obama campaign is airing a heavy dose of TV ads that stress the Obama biography. It is also holding what Mr. Plouffe calls "a lot of very elemental events" in key states designed to introduce voters there to the basic Obama campaign themes and issue stances.

The effort is encapsulated in one of the first TV ads the campaign produced after he sewed up the nomination last month. It is a simple concept: Sen. Obama, minus a necktie, talking straight into the camera about values. "America is a country of strong families and strong values," he says. "My life's been blessed by both. I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents. We didn't have much money, but they taught me values straight from the Kansas heartland where they grew up."

The McCain campaign is working each day to nurture doubts about Sen. Obama. One of its overriding themes is that Sen. Obama's election would represent too big a risk for voters to take.

The new Journal/NBC poll provides support for that strategy: It finds that by a 55% to 35% margin, voters are more likely to say Sen. Obama would be the riskier choice. By 2-to-1, voters chose Sen. McCain when asked which candidate would be a better commander in chief and who has better knowledge and experience to handle being president. "It is proof that the electorate is familiar with" Sen. McCain's record and experience, said spokesman Tucker Bounds, noting that's a reason Sen. McCain is doing better than Republicans generally.

On Iraq, Sen. McCain regularly accuses his rival of being irresponsible and naive. On domestic issues he paints Sen. Obama as a liberal who will raise taxes -- too risky, he says, to trust with your wallet.

On both fronts, the campaign argues that Sen. Obama's views are opaque and voters don't know what they would get with an Obama White House. A TV ad released last week paints Sen. Obama as a flip-flopper on Iraq, now waffling on his promise to bring home the troops in 16 months. "Positions that helped him win his nomination, now Obama is changing to help himself become president," the narrator says. Last week, the campaign released a "documentary" that purported to show Sen. Obama's changing views on the war.

"People don't know what he really believes, which makes him a big question mark," said McCain communications adviser Matt McDonald. "He's an unknown, and that's a liability."

Mr. Plouffe said the recent broadsides indicate that the McCain campaign is "getting angrier and more strident in tone" and added, "Obviously we're going to have to deal with their increasingly negative attacks."

Striking Similarities

Campaign 2008 bears some striking similarities to the 1980 campaign, when -- as now -- the resident of the White House was unpopular and his party was suffering. The question was whether the opposition party had nominated a candidate who would be seen as safe or too far out of the mainstream.

In 1980, President Carter was standing for re-election himself, while in 2008 President George W. Bush, is attempting to pass the baton to Sen. McCain. But the questions about the opposing party's candidate, Mr. Reagan, were similar to those now posed about Sen. Obama. Mr. Reagan, a former California governor who had spent no time serving in Washington, was seen as light on experience and lacking in foreign-policy gravitas. Some in the political establishment considered his strong conservative philosophy and anti-Soviet rhetoric to be too extreme for mainstream America.

The doubts about Mr. Reagan lingered until he acquitted himself well in a single nationally televised debate against Mr. Carter, just one week before the election. Ultimately, Mr. Reagan won going away.

One great question that hangs over this year's election wasn't an issue in 1980: How much voter uncertainty about Sen. Obama's background involves his race? It's an explicit factor for some voters.

"I just don't think we're ready for a black president," says Donna Bender, 62, of Oshkosh, Wis., a retired credit clerk and registered Democrat. "I'm prejudiced."

In the new Journal/NBC survey, only a small fraction of voters say race is a dominant factor in their choice, though the findings suggest that fraction may be inching higher. Among voters overall, 10% said race is the most important factor, up from 6% a month ago.

Among white voters surveyed, 8% said race is the most important factor, up from 5% a month ago. Among African-Americans, who overwhelmingly support Sen. Obama, 20% said race is the top factor.

Overall, though, the survey suggests that questions about Sen. Obama's relatively short résumé may be paramount. When voters were asked for their views about various criticisms against Sen. Obama, the largest share -- a third of voters overall -- said they were most concerned that he might be "too inexperienced and not ready to be president."

The Obama campaign's hope is that voters will continue to stress the need for change.

That hope is embodied in Robert Benedict, 71, a Democrat in Erin, N.Y. He says Sen. Obama is "inexperienced," but adds: "On the other hand, maybe that's what we need. Maybe we need somebody who's not the status quo politician of Washington."

Wall Street Journal