Who will succeed MCain or Obama in the Senate?

NPR.org, July 23, 2008 · Q: This year's presidential election will create at least one Senate vacancy; other Senate seats could become vacant depending on who becomes vice president. That said, who are John McCain and Barack Obama's likely successors in the Senate? - Greg Jackson, Burbank, Calif.

A: The situation is different in Illinois, where Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) may name whomever he wants (presumably a Democrat), and Arizona, where state law stipulates that Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) must name a successor from the same party as the departed incumbent (and thus a Republican). Here's an early-bird look:

ILLINOIS: A lot of variables face Blagojevich, whose popularity has fallen and whose relationship with many of his fellow Democrats is strained. The state has a history of having its senators coming from downstate or Chicago, but not both from the same geographic region. With Sen. Dick Durbin hailing from downstate, the betting is that an Obama successor would be a Chicagoan. Odds also favor the choice being either a member of the House or an African-American, and if the governor picked Danny Davis or Jesse Jackson Jr., all three criteria would be reached. Jackson seems far more ambitious than Davis, appears to have more advanced political smarts, and would probably be better prepared to run statewide in 2010. His admonishment/lecture of his famous dad, following the Reverend's surgical suggestion regarding Obama that was caught on tape, probably helped his cause.

Other House members thought to be under consideration are Luis Gutierrez of Chicago, who is close to Blagojevich and who would be the state's first Latino senator, and Jan Schakowsky of Evanston, who like Jackson is an Obama national campaign co-chair. She might, however, be tarred by the ethics troubles of her husband, Bob Creamer, who went to prison for check kiting. Schakowsky is white.

If Obama had a say, it might very well be Emil Jones Jr., the powerful state senate president who is also from Chicago, African-American, and a Blago ally. Obama has given Jones much of the credit for his 2004 election to the U.S. Senate while he was still in the state legislature. But sending Jones to Washington may be too great a loss for the governor, who needs him in Springfield. Plus, Jones will be 73 in October, so if he were appointed he might only be a caretaker, staying on until the 2010 election.

Other Blagojevich allies on the list: Tammy Duckworth, the state director of veteran's affairs and Iraq war veteran who lost a 2006 bid to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R) in Congress; and state Rep. Jay Hoffman, who carries the governor's water in the state legislature. Another close ally, though less likely to be named, is the governor himself.

Names also mentioned include three statewide elected officials, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Lt. Governor Pat Quinn, and Comptroller Dan Hynes, but they are even more unlikely to be selected.

ARIZONA: It's a trickier proposition for Gov. Napolitano, who must name a Republican if McCain is elected president. Does she name the best Republican, or the easiest to defeat? She is thought to be on Obama's VP list (though probably not on the "short" list), but there's talk back home that she would love to run for the Senate in 2010, so that may be part of the calculation.

Here are some of the Republicans whose names have come up:

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth - Defeated for re-election in 2006 after a campaign in which his anti-immigration views and ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff paid a part in the surprise outcome. Even Republicans are known to think Hayworth, a strong conservative, is too full of himself to be the party's best choice for the Senate.

Rep. Jeff Flake - Like McCain, or at least like the old McCain, Flake is an independent-thinking lawmaker who has not hesitated to take on members of his own party. Nearly every Republican in Arizona is a conservative, but Flake is an old-school Goldwater conservative. He was once thought to be eyeing a primary challenge to McCain for his Senate seat.

Ex-Rep. Jim Kolbe - The only openly gay Republican while he was in the House, the more moderate Kolbe retired in 2006 and refused to endorse the GOP candidate hoping to succeed him, saying his views on immigration were way out of the mainstream. A leading Bush ally, his appointment would certainly lead to a primary challenge from the right when the seat came up in 2010.

Rep. John Shadegg - Shadegg, whose father helped engineer the rise of Barry Goldwater several generations ago, is one of the leading conservatives in the House who has taken on party leaders he felt were straying from principle. He hinted he would not seek another term this year but recently changed his mind. If the GOP suffers another electoral rout in the House, one would assume that Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Roy Blunt would be pushed out of their posts. If that happened, Shadegg would presumably be one of those hoping to step in.

Others mentioned include Secretary of State Jan Brewer, who is currently preparing a 2010 run for governor, and state Sen. Russell Pearce, an outspoken foe of illegal immigration who faces a potentially tough primary in September.

For the record, no Democrat has won a Senate seat here since Dennis DeConcini 20 years ago.