Will the Jews sink Obama?

Will the Jews sink Obama?

May 19, 2008
Obama and the Jewish question



Will the Jews sink Obama?

That's the question asked by Mike Madden over on Salon.

The theory isn't hard to grasp. Here it is:

The GOP is already pushing, and pushing hard, the idea that Obama has a problem with the Jewish vote, because of his proposals to sit down to negotiate with Iranian leaders who have threatened Israel, because of his former pastor's ties to Louis Farrakhan and (though most Republicans don't bring this up) because of false fears that Obama is secretly Muslim.

So do I buy it? I do not.

To start off there's the maths. Yes there are a few key states with a Jewish vote theoretically big enough to swing the contest against Obama.

But this involves the sort of figure work people were using a month or so ago to suggest that Hillary would win using superdelegates. The plurality of Jews voting against Obama would have to be great and that is simply not realistic. Even if there is a small swing away from Kerry's Jewish numbers, it is unlikely to be big enough to make a decisive difference.

However, I accept that the votes of Jews isn't entirely irrelevant. Which brings me to a second point. Jews don't vote exclusively, even mainly, on foreign policy. That's true here and it's true in America.

Nobody could have tilted so far towards the standard Jewish views on Israel as George Bush yet still Jews voted overwhelmingly for his opponents. The view of conspiracy theorists and lazy analysts that the Jewish vote in the US has been the critical feature of US elections and Middle East policy simply isn't borne out by the historical record.

US policy in the Middle East reflects US interests and US values. Not Jewish influence.

If they don't vote predominantly on so-called Jewish issues then what does determine Jewish votes?

Overwhelmingly it is liberal sentiment. From marching with Martin Luther King to becoming a mainstay of Democratic fundraising, Jews have overwhelmingly identified with the liberal movement in America.

I think Obama will have a great deal of appeal to Jews.

Timesonline