The Truth About Hillary's Florida "Win" (And Michigan)

Gender-age breakdown


Looking back at some of the data (a lot of which I can't find yet) I am convinced that a re-vote in Florida between Clinton and Obama would be extremely close and Obama could very well win.

Hillary got 50%, Obama 33% and Edwards 14%. The vote was heavily female
59% and over 60 39%. The key demo I want to find is how many african-americans turned out? The key issue on the Florida ballot since Democratic voters were told their vote wasn't going to count anyway was a property tax issue which would naturally bring out a lot of home owners who would more likely cast for Hillary than Obama.


The key demo that I haven't found yet is what percentage of the January vote was African-American. I suspect that it was lower than the approximately 13% registered. I could be wrong but I think Obama would get most of the Edwards voters and the young people who didn't bother showing up. (only 9% 18-29) Plus throw in the African-Americans who I suspect didn't show up either (If anyone can find the data you might prove my instincts wrong) and you have a very close election.

As well, roughly as many Republicans turned out to vote onnthe propety ta initiative as did Democrats. In contested primaries, the Dems have been showing up in much higher numbers than Republicans.


I really would like to see a current poll in Florida to see how people would vote if ther election were held today Clinton v Obama.

As far as Michigan goes, where Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot, I see no reason that Obama couldn't win that state too as it's a lot like Wisconsin except with a large number of African-Americans.

Bottom line is a re-vote, at best for Hillary, might get her a few more net delegates.