My Take on Super Tuesday Results

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My grades for Super Tuesday

Democrats

Clinton: Grade B
Had to deliver on the big states and did.
Needed to stop Obama from landing a lot of little states. So so there.
Needed to compete in the South well enough to stop Obama from locking in lots of delegates. Not so good.
Spin control afterward. Amazing. You'd think Clinton swept every state.

Obama: Grade B
Had to get a majority of small states to make up for the big states. Check
Needed a strong showing in the South. Check
Bonus points for winning a state where Clinton was heavily favored two weeks ago. No bonus for you.
Stay close on the delegate count. Check
Spin control afterward. Could be better.

Republicans

Huckabee: Grade A
Needed to win some states. Check
Bonus for a win outside the deep South. Check.
More bonus for drawing support outside of the religious base. Sorry
Needed Romney to keep McCain under control. Nope, but not your fault.
Spin control: Pretty good with lots of shots at Romney pushing him out.

McCain: Grade A+
Needed big state wins to get the delegate count. Check plus
Show you can get the vote outside of the conservative base. Check
Bonus for pulling some of the conservative base. Making progress, but a long way to go.
Spin control: Excellent. Working on selling "it's a done deal"

Romney: Grade F
Needed to win in the South. Not much to show there
Needed to compete for delegates in CA. Got stomped.
Needed to pull in conservative base and prove he is the alternative to McCain. Sorry
Spin control: More like a tail spin
If Romney has as much sense as he claims, he's working on his concession speak.

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very accurate I'd say.

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I don't know that Clinton did well enough.

The Demographics of Super Tuesday favored Clinton.The next couple weeks of contests (Nebraska, Louisiana, Hawaii) all favor Obama (with the exception of Maine).

Clinton has less room for error than Obama now, and if Obama is seen to be picking up momentum, the race could quickly get out of control for Clinton.

It is not impossible that with the mid-Atlantic states coming after Maine, that Obama could pick up 6 out of 7 of the next states. This would obviously put Clinton in a difficult position with only Ohio and Texas to save her.

Winning lots of states in a row has a snowball effect that builds good press coverage, fires up the supporters and helps with fund raising.

The next 2 or 3 weeks are tough for Clinton, although if she makes it through to March without giving Obama too much of a lead, it gets easier for her.

But, I don't think the Clinton insiders are too happy with the Super Tuesday results (outside of the spin of course). She would have done better going into this tough stretch with more of a lead.

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engineer, give us your grading on Ron Paul, it should be a hoot. Smile

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I would also like to see Ralph Nader's grade.

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Brand X wrote:

engineer, give us your grading on Ron Paul, it should be a hoot.

Hmmm, very tough because I don't know what he is trying to accomplish. He's raised a good deal of money, but isn't spending it. He has a great grass roots organization, but his entire campaign is below the radar screen.

If Ron Paul really wanted the Republican nomination... Grade F. Didn't try to win any states when winning just one state would make him a slightly viable candidate. Minimal spin from the "campaign", no press as usual.

If Ron Paul wants to influence the Republican platform: Grade F. If he could get a decent delegate count, he might be able to have an impact at the convention, but that's certainly not happening. In the early debates, he was great at puncturing some of the hot air balloons the other candidates were sending out, but he's not getting invited to debates anymore.

In Ron Paul wants to get up a third party candidacy, Grade C. He's getting donations and some name recognition, but his numbers aren't high enough to make anyone think he can rock the establishment in November. What on earth is he doing with his money? My bet is saving it for a third party run. I'm not sure if he would draw more from anti-war Republicans who might vote Dem otherwise or anti-tax republicans who will never vote Democratic.

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Re: My Take on Super Tuesday Results

engineer wrote:

Bonus points for winning a state where Clinton was heavily favored two weeks ago. No bonus for you.

What about Connecticut?

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Re: My Take on Super Tuesday Results

joefromchicago wrote:

engineer wrote:
Bonus points for winning a state where Clinton was heavily favored two weeks ago. No bonus for you.

What about Connecticut?

I thought about giving points for Connecticut, but I was really thinking about New York, California and Mass. I figured all of these were locks for Clinton. Still the win in CT was a highlight for Obama.

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engineer wrote:

Brand X wrote:
engineer, give us your grading on Ron Paul, it should be a hoot.

Hmmm, very tough because I don't know what he is trying to accomplish. He's raised a good deal of money, but isn't spending it. He has a great grass roots organization, but his entire campaign is below the radar screen.

If Ron Paul really wanted the Republican nomination... Grade F. Didn't try to win any states when winning just one state would make him a slightly viable candidate. Minimal spin from the "campaign", no press as usual.

If Ron Paul wants to influence the Republican platform: Grade F. If he could get a decent delegate count, he might be able to have an impact at the convention, but that's certainly not happening. In the early debates, he was great at puncturing some of the hot air balloons the other candidates were sending out, but he's not getting invited to debates anymore.

In Ron Paul wants to get up a third party candidacy, Grade C. He's getting donations and some name recognition, but his numbers aren't high enough to make anyone think he can rock the establishment in November. What on earth is he doing with his money? My bet is saving it for a third party run. I'm not sure if he would draw more from anti-war Republicans who might vote Dem otherwise or anti-tax republicans who will never vote Democratic.

He has stated several times he's not interested in a third party endeavor.

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Brand X wrote:

He has stated several times he's not interested in a third party endeavor.

Then an F overall. He's not really trying very hard. If I were one of his supporters, I would be disappointed.

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My Take on Super Tuesday Results

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