Clinton Leads Obama in California

Clinton comfortably leads Obama in California

Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer

Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Field Poll: Democratic Presidential Primary. Chronicle gr... Field Poll: Democratic Presidential Primary. Chronicle gr...

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a commanding lead among Latinos and women in California, but 1 in 5 voters is still undecided with the state's Feb. 5 primary just two weeks away, a new Field Poll shows.

The latest Field Poll, taken among 377 likely Democratic primary voters Jan. 14-20, gives Clinton a 12-point lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 27 percent.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a distant third with 10 percent, and by more than 2 to 1, his supporters say they would vote for Obama if Edwards were to drop out of the race, the poll showed.

The senator from New York retains an advantage over Obama among a wide swath of California voters, including Latinos by 40 points, seniors by 22 points, and both women and Asian Americans by 19 points.

Clinton also is ahead among every voter age group and in every geographic region of California, the poll showed.

Obama, by contrast, leads with African Americans by 34 points and is seven points ahead among college graduates and voters who make $80,000 a year or more, according to the poll.

The two leading Democratic candidates are nearly matched, however, in their appeal to male voters, liberals and white non-Hispanics.

Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said that despite the large number of undecided voters, Clinton's strength among women, seniors and Latinos suggests a formidable strength approaching the upcoming "Super Duper Tuesday" primary here.

"If you wanted to pick three voter groups which are probably most important in a Democratic primary electorate, those are the three," he said.

Women are expected to make up 57 percent of the state's primary electorate on Feb. 5, while "Latinos are the fastest-growing voter group, and seniors are the most reliable. That's probably as solid a base as you can start with," he said.

DiCamillo said that even the large undecided segment - 1 in 5 - of the Democratic voters "shouldn't trouble Clinton too much." That's because those undecideds are "mostly older voters ... and she's leading by 22 points among that segment," he said. "You can expect many of them will break Hillary's way."

DiCamillo said the electorate attracted to Obama is "an interesting mix" of African Americans and the high-income, highly educated Democrats who are often known as "wine-and-cheese liberals."

But "if he intends to win, he needs to open up a gender gap," a stronger lead among men, DiCamillo said. Currently, Clinton and Obama are virtually tied for the male vote, 34 percent to 32 percent, the poll showed.

Clinton is seen by 4 to 1 as the candidate who has "the right experience" for the Oval Office and by 2 to 1 as having "the best chance of winning" in November.

But Obama - by 44 percent to 26 percent - is seen by most voters as being the candidate who "represents change," the poll showed.

Among the other findings of the latest Field Poll:

-- Democratic primary voters have an overwhelmingly favorable view of both leading presidential candidates; Clinton is viewed favorably by 77 percent and Obama by 74 percent. Clinton's favorable ratings have jumped significantly, up from 67 percent, since October among such voters, the poll showed.

-- Clinton leads Obama in all major geographic regions of the state, though their closest contest is in the Bay Area, where they are just 7 points apart.

-- Clinton voters say jobs and the economy are their most important issues, while Obama voters are more likely to define the war in Iraq and foreign policy as their biggest concerns, the poll showed.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

SFGate.com