What's in Senator Joe Biden's future?

The Politico
Biden looks overseas
By Helena Andrews - Slate
1/24/08

Despite his failed presidential bid, foreign policy experts say Joe Biden returns to the Senate and his Foreign Relations Committee chairmanship this week with burnished credentials.

The Delaware senator's second run for the White House ended in the snow of Iowa, but he is even more attractive than before as a candidate for secretary of state in a Democratic administration, according to some in the Washington foreign policy community. Biden also wins praise for attempting to engage voters in a more substantive debate on national security and foreign affairs issues.

But more than anything else, there is a sense of relief on both sides of the aisle that Biden is finally off the campaign trail and back in the driver's seat at the Foreign Relations Committee, where he can focus his energies on U.S. relations with Iran, North Korea and Kosovo.

"As a conservative, I'm one who's gained more respect for Joe Biden over the last few years," said a GOP House aide, but "he returns to an institution of which there is enormous frustration at the Senate for its failure to step up on a host of legislative initiatives."

The frustration isn't necessarily limited to Biden or his presidential bid. "We've seen no serious legislative initiatives out of this committee for the better part of three or four years," said the aide. "Half the members of that committee were running for president, whether it was John Kerry, Joe Biden or Chuck Hagel - everybody seemed to be angling for the presidency."

The return of an unsuccessful White House candidate to the clubby and competitive atmosphere of the Senate has proved difficult for some in the past. But Biden, despite his early exit, seemed to win respect from his opponents and political observers for the way he ran his campaign - and also for seeming to curb his legendary gift for gab, which has resulted in damaging verbal gaffes throughout his career.

Biden's reputation as a politician who can broker agreements and work across party lines makes him a pivotal player for the next administration. Come next year, the next president must consider the question of either how to get out of Iraq or how to stay, and Biden is poised to play a central role in that debate.

"Whatever choice the new president wants [to make], he or she will need congressional support and bipartisan support, and Biden will be crucial," said Michael Mandelbaum, author of "Democracy's Good Name."

"Whoever is president will be courting him," Mandelbaum added.

Of course, it's possible that the next president will view Biden as a potential secretary of state. Dan Hamilton, director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at The Johns Hopkins University, said Biden's recent time on the national stage would be enough to propel him to a Cabinet position, especially given his well-received debate performances. "It wouldn't surprise people next January to hear that he had been made secretary of state," said Hamilton. "If the announcement had been made last July, some people would have been surprised."

Others saw value in Biden's campaign because the Delaware senator discussed important issues that might otherwise have been overlooked.

On the campaign trail in Iowa, Biden asked a crowd of supporters, "What happens if [Pakistan] implodes and nuclear warheads fall into the hands of terrorists? That's what I've been warning about for five years."

At the NPR presidential debates in Iowa last December, Biden said his foreign policy doctrine would be one of prevention. "And we don't have to imagine any of the crises," he said. "We know what's going to happen on day one when you're president. You have Pakistan, Russia, China, the subcontinent of India. You have Afghanistan. You have Darfur. And it requires engagement - engagement and prevention." Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said Biden elevated the quality of conversation about issues such as Pakistan and
China.

"Biden typically had a sophistication in his answers that got beyond the simple slogan," O'Hanlon said, referring to candidate debates in which the senator spoke eloquently about the dangers of an unstable Pakistan and the ongoing genocide in the Darfur region of Sudan. "I'm glad we didn't have to deal with just the front-runners."

Johns Hopkins' Hamilton agreed: "He resisted the easy sound bite. And I do think people respected that."

Jim Jatras, a lobbyist and former foreign policy adviser, was skeptical about whether the issues raised by Biden would be discussed in any depth now that his presidential bid has ended.

"I don't think the presidential race is going to figure very highly on foreign policy issues unless we're dealing with crises that come up," said Jatras. "I don't think anyone will focus on them from their own initiative."

Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at The Cato Institute, said Biden had been typecast among the candidates as the "wise foreign policy sage, kind of speaking the truth."

Other foreign policy wonks said the same, referring to Biden as sophisticated and a shoo-in to lead the State Department or, alternately, on the short list for a vice presidential nod should Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois win the Democratic nomination.

Despite his foot-in-mouth comments about Obama being "articulate" last February, some said Biden's foreign policy experience would complement Obama's perceived inexperience in that area.

"When it comes to VP nominees, Biden is going to be on that list," said Steve Clemons, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, a "radical centrist" think tank based in Washington. Clemons added that he hoped the possibility of being Obama's running mate wouldn't "distract" Biden "from the more important function of having the Foreign Relations Committee up and doing its job."