Behind Iowa Caucus Results!How Huckabee and Obama Won Easily

As usual, Chris Mathews gets his mouth going before his brain engages. ---BBB

Behind the Iowa Caucus Results! Continuous Updates -- How Huckabee and Obama Won Easily
By Greg Mitchell - Editors & Publishers
January 03, 2008 8:35 PM ET updated rest of night and Friday

NEW YORK We'll be offering results and commentary on the Iowa caucus results all night, with material from numerous TV and Web outlets. We will update from the top, blog style.

Later Friday: Howard Kurtz at the Post looks at the punditocracy: "We in the news business made the same mistake we've made so many times before, overvaluing money and organization. Phil Gramm was going to be huge in 1996 because of his war chest. Howard Dean was virtually guaranteed to win because he had raised the then-unimaginable sum of $40 million. But in the end, message and personality can trump fat checkbooks and precinct workers.

"We cling to those benchmarks because they feel real. We overvalue early polls, which can change in a heartbeat, as Huckabee just demonstrated."

Meanwhile, Andrew Malcolm at the Los Angeles Times' "Top of the Ticket" blog headlines a posting, "Clinton aides hint that now things'll get nasty." It opens: "While you were sleeping, the chartered jet of the third-place finisher in the Iowa Democratic caucus winged its way from Des Moines to Manchester, N.H. And it sounds like some decisions were made on that plane that may alter the course of that party's presidential race."

He then recounts an interview with Clinton aide Mark Penn on how she will now target Obama, with Malcolm recalling the hints or rumors put out by Clinton people previously about certain possibly not so swell things in Obama's past, whatever that means.

David Brooks in The New York Times hails the Huckabee win, feeling (rightly or not) that it heralds a new brand of "compassionate conservatism." Where have we heard that before? But he still finds Huck nomination "highly doubtful," and here it is: "The past few weeks have exposed his serious flaws as a presidential candidate. His foreign policy knowledge is minimal. His lapses into amateurishness simply won't fly in a national campaign.

"So the race will move on to New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is now grievously wounded. Romney represents what's left of Republicanism 1.0. Huckabee and McCain represent half-formed iterations of Republicanism 2.0. My guess is Republicans will now swing behind McCain in order to stop Mike.

"Huckabee probably won't be the nominee, but starting last night in Iowa, an evangelical began the Republican Reformation."

And from politico.com: "The Iowa results, with a victory for a populist social conservative [Huckabee] deeply mistrusted by many people in the Republican establishment, also virtually guarantee that the nomination contest will not simply be a battle over personalities and credentials. Instead, the race will now be a deep and probably intensely negative fight for the direction of the party in the post-Bush era.

"Here's what still utterly uncertain: Who will emerge from this demolition derby? Iowa's historic role is to winnow the field. In 2008, it has the effect of expanding the number of credible top-tier contenders. There are now five people who can conjure at least somewhat plausible paths to the nomination."

Early Friday: Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal online: "Mr. Huckabee likes to head-fake people into thinking he's Gomer Pyle, but he's more like the barefoot boy of the green room. He's more James Carville than Jim Nabors."

Whoops. Still up at top of New York Times site is this editorial board prediction: "The Iowa caucuses are an extreme case of putting up barriers to voting. It is no wonder that turnout today is expected to be so low." Actually, turnout shattered all records.

11:45: Of course, the unstated joke is that so much is being made of this vote by what has been called "a sliver of a sliver of a sliver" of the electorate. And here's Andrea Mitchell on MSNNC agreeing with Howard Fineman that "the torch has passed" from Hillary Clinton and she needs to find a reason to even "go forward," as if she is Bidenesque and has nothing in her favor at all. Indeed, she is in trouble but this same sliverish voters have previously rejected numerous future presidents, including her husband. I mean Bill Clinton, not Andrea's husband, Alan Greenspan.

11:30: On MSNBC, Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post says the Obama speech was "goosebumps" time for him, watching a black candidate win and sound like Robert Kennedy to boot. Pat Buchanan says Huckabee is for real -- Fox News will just have to come to grips with it. But his margin over Romney is actually the same as Obama's win.

Howard Fineman sings Obama's praises, says there has been a "passing of the torch" from the Clinton generation and in fact the Clintons may be done. Says Obama now frontrunner in N.H. and a "phenomenon" who just delivered one of best speeches he's ever heard.

Obama has actually "thumped" Clinton by 38% to 29%, with Edwards at 30%. But he only beat Clinton by 1% among pure Democrats.

Mike Gravel has quit! Say it ain't so! (Update: According to his web site, it ain't so! Another TV blunder.)

Matthews continues on his error-strewn path. Earlier he had said the Iraq war was now in its 6th year and now he says it is in its 7th year! Hey, Chris, the 5th anniversary is still more than two months away.

11:15: In his victory speech, Obama speaks in more preacher-like tones than normal, firm but dignified, serious and only rarely smiling -- like Edwards, speaking more to voters in other states than to those in hall. Rousing finish, more like the "old" Obama than the sometimes tired and routine performances on the campaign trail. Seems likely to now do very well in N.H.

Looks like Edwards has clinched 2nd. Dodd and Biden drop out -- at last! Some leading GOP pols very upset with Huckabee win. Richard Viguerie calls him a kind of "socialist."

11:00: Obama won the female vote in Iowa. Tim Russert's "headline" for day is giant Democratic turnout in "red" state -- topping Repubs by about 2-1.

10:40: Huckabee looks like he'll win by about 9%. He comes out to speak -- with Chuck Norris (and his wife) prominently right behind him with incredibly white teeth. Huckabee joins throng in hailing change and a "new day in America." Also: "People are more important than the purse." He knocks pundits for looking at money as so crucial. And twice says that like a good soldier he does not hate the foe in front of him but rather acts out of love for those behind him. Very effective speech.

McCain now in third place. Ron Paul will NOT finish 3rd as his supporters predicted.

10:20: Edwards appears and makes a brilliant decision -- instead of thanking his county chairmen he gives a ten-minute stump speech on free TV for voters in upcoming primaries. And it's a powerful, angry populist speech in which he basically lumps himself with Obama as the change agents who defeated the status quo and the money of Hillary. Chris Matthews response: He didn't "concede" and congratulate Obama. Boo-hoo.

Clinton then comes out and says great night for Democrats and yes everyone wants change. It looks like she is finishing 3rd and Edwards may haunt her in future as he is really speaking to the hardcore Dems now. Bill Clinton standing behind her is practicing his adoring spouse role. Matthews wrong, as usual -- Hillary makes no major announcement at all, despite his prediction.

10:10: Hillary and Bill about to speak. You can almost feel the spin from here, as she still trails Edwards slightly for 2nd with not much vote to come. Matthews expects a big announcement of some kind.

Chris Wallace on Fox signs off with praise for Huckabee -- Fox may have decided to stop knocking guy they may have to back in the fall.

Poll analysis shows 56% of first time caucus voters went for Obama. But will young turn out everywhere, and in fall? They often disappear.

9:40: Obama pulling away with 37% to the other two at 30% -- a big win. Huckabee lead over Romney trimmed to 34% to 25%.

Rudy on TV looking for help in Florida to save candidacy. Huck campaign manager Ed Rollins on Fox getting testy with Chris Wallace probably because Fox has mocked Huck.

Bill Schneider on CNN analyzing polls that show "change" people went for Obama and "experience" people went for Clinton. Surprise. Clinton polled very poorly among young. Independents swung it to Obama, but Democrats were purely split. They get to vote in New Hampshire, too.

9:30: NBC calls it for Obama. He is drawing about 35% with Hillary with chance to finish 3rd, tied with Edwards at 31%. Matthews crowing about smashing Clinton setback with "two-thirds" voting against her. But Rachel Maddow points out, "two-thirds voted against the other two, also."

9:20: With 60% of Dem vote in, Obama widening lead to 35% to 31% for both Clinton and Edwards. More than half his vote coming from 17 to 29 year olds. Seventeen? Yes, they can vote now, if they turn 18 by November.

9:15: Analysts point out that Huckabee will need to broaden base since most states don't have the same 60% GOP vote as Iowa. Still, he is in line with much of party and as Pat Buchanan says, "Huckabee now has a ticket to the finals in the Republican race." Howard Fineman wonders who will be the un-Huckabee. Buchanan says it will be McCain, especially if Romney loses New Hampshire.

Thompson still drawing 14%, McCain and Paul about 12%.

9:02: NBC calls it for Huckabee, easily. Did the bass playing with Jay Leno prove the difference? Where is Derek Smalls when we really need him?

9:00: Now with 27% in, "tight as a tick," as Dan Rather used to put it, with Edwards at 34% and Obama and Hillary at 32%. Chris Matthews still inanely insisting that 33% would be major defeat for her, even if she wins. Huckabee with surprisingly big lead at 36% to 23% over Mitt, with Thompson at unexpectedly high 14%. Matthews no longer fantasizing about McCain drawing 18%.

8:55: The popular liberal blog DailyKos seems to be quickest with actual results as reported by the Iowa Democratic party. Latest, with about 15% choosing, finds Edwards leading with about 34%, and Obama and Clinton at 32%

8:45: Edwards actually leads with first actual numbers in, with 9% reporting, with a healthy 39%.

8:30: NBC says that its "early" entrance polls indicate that Obama and Clinton are topping Edwards, and Huckabee and Romney neck and neck. Even if true, Edwards is said to be a strong second choice of the voters for the lower-tier candidates and so could still end up on top.

One explanation if indeed he is trailing: Possibly a huge turnout, with added women (favoring Hillary) and more young and indies (for Obama). MSNBC found David Gregory at one caucus site where partication tripled from four years ago, from roughly 85 to 250.

Liberal bloggers upset with early Chris Matthews spin that 30% would represent a smashing defeat for Clinton while 18% would be a triumph for media-fave McCain. If Ron Paul manages to tie or beat McCain for 3rd, watch his head explode on live TV.