Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Brokaw sez Obama has 50 Super-delegates in his back pocket.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/10402/50272/310/468529

I wonder how many would be switching from Hillary? That would be a double whammy!

Cycloptichorn

Terrible.

I can't find anything confirming what I thought I saw. All I'm certain of is that the poll -- or poll of polls, whatever it was -- ended Mar. 3. So don't trust me on it. Hopefully the graphic will come back again.

VT polls close at 7 ET

Yep.

And polls close here at 7:30 -- though I've been posting elsewhere (blog thread) that we likely won't know anything definitive from Ohio for a while. Not to mention TX!

By the way that poll graphic did come back, it was the other way 'round. Clinton 49, Obama 42. Ah well.

As of now I'm rooting for a less than 8 pt margin for Hillary, as per Ohio Dem chairman Chris Redfern's comments. (In the "Obama '08?" thread.)

Some links to voices on the ground, and other stories about voting
trends or improprieties.



OH thread of voter experiences :

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/bsbs_official_hows_it_look_where_you_are_thread


TX thread of voter experiences :

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5268



Caucus Chaos in TX? - http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/The_coming_caucus_chaos.html



Grassroots reporter Al Giordano eyes on the ground :

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/

With o% of the votes reported, VT is awarded to Obama. 15 delegates proportionally based on the popular vote.
McCain also declared the winner.

Hmm! (Thats a cautiously happy hhmmm)

First, provisional exit polls out for Ohio.

Recalculating the numbers by men and by women on the basis of the relative share they make up of the total vote, I come to this overall result:

51.13% Hillary Clinton
47.87% Barack Obama

Or a 3,3% lead for Hillary.

Only the first exit poll data, will be updated throughout the night, cant say anything with sureness yet, etc etc...

... but thats a lot closer than I feared it would be!

Apparently Obama won the early voting in TX by 58-41.

w00t

Cycloptichorn

I note that the % of exit polled voters by age in Ohio is lower than I would have expected amongst the 17-28 year olds.
Is it Spring Break, soz?

3.3 % would make me happy!

The Swamp did a poll among political types in OH and came up with a similar number.

Not spring break, nope.

Hey, the exit polls didn't include early voting, did they...?

Nope.

Obama is going to win TX!!! He's far ahead in the early voting and it's awesome.

w00t

Cycloptichorn

You make me nervous with your projections. It's like playing golf in a lighting storm.

I agree completely!

8:50: CBS News's Maria Gavrilovic reports: "The Obama campaign is projecting a Democratic primary turnout of more than 3.6 million. They point out that Kerry only had 2.8 million votes in the general. Also, Obama appears to have won the early vote in Tarrant County (Fort Worth area), which is a big Republican area. They are projecting 59-40…noting that they can win the support of Republicans and Independents who are crossing over."

8:44: Statement from Obama Ohio mgr Paul Tewes:

""Due to reports of ballot shortages in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties, we requested a voting extension in those counties. The judge granted our request to extend voting in a number of Cuyahoga county precincts. We are working to ensure that every Ohioan who wishes to cast a ballot today may do so."

cCuyahoga and Franklin counties? Where are they, soz?

McCain Clinches Nomination; Huckabee To Drop Out
04 Mar 2008 09:03 pm

Sen, John McCain has clinched the Republican nomination after a day of overwhelming victories capped by news that Gov. Mike Huckabee has decided to concede.

Tomorrow, Republican sources confirm that McCain will receive the endorsement of President Bush at the White House.

Following that ceremony, McCain will travel to the Republican National Committee, where chairman Mike Duncan will anoint him as the nominee presumptive.

Franklin is me! Columbus.

Don't know about Cuyahoga for sure but I think it's Cleveland.

Both Obama-leaning areas.

Yep, seems to be.

Meanwhile, this is interesting:



http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/livebloggin_a_pivotal_primary.html

Need to get to bed. Not much resolved but so far seems a little better than I feared...

More about it at that link now. Bad if true...

Obama Attorney Crashes Clinton Campaign Conference Call
04 Mar 2008 09:00 pm

On a Clinton campaign conference call to discuss reports of Obama-inspired voting irregularities in Texas, the second question belonged to Bob Bauer.

"Repeat that?" asked an incredulous -- and bemused -- Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director.

Bob Bauer, Barack Obama's chief counsel.

"How is this any different than the series of complaints registered against every caucus that you lose?"

Wolfson disputed that.

"I would ask you," he said to Bauer, "to join with us this evening to ensure that the serious problems that are ongoing this evening are addressed."

Bauer asked Wolfson, in turn, to "stop attacking the caucus process."

After some arguing about Nevada, Bauer ceded the floor to a reporter.