Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Oh, nah. She was up by 15 or 20 points in each of those states a few weeks ago. A little bounce back to her at the end is meaningless.

Crist Says He'd Support a Repeat of Florida Democratic Primary

Nadine ElsibaiSun Mar 2, 1:37 PM ET

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Florida Governor Charlie Crist said he'd support a repeat of the Democratic presidential primary so the state's delegates can be counted at the party's national convention.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said he's open to the possibility. Primary elections are paid for by a state's taxpayers, so the offer from Crist, a Republican, is ``very helpful'' because money is an issue, Dean said.

Has anyone heard if there are any results reported yet for all those uncounted ballots in New York? Remember they had a bunch of zero vote precincts reported?

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Oh, nah. She was up by 15 or 20 points in each of those states a few weeks ago. A little bounce back to her at the end is meaningless.

I dunno. Thats how the expectations game goes. Obama won, what, 10 races in a row or something - fairly or unfairly, I think that if Hillary wins both states tomorrow, even with a small margin, the media are gonna roll with it and declare it her "comeback story," and a lot of rank-and-file Dems will go with it. Hell, I know about the 20-point leads from a month ago, but even I would be disappointed if Obama doesnt win either state. Thats how it goes.

As for Obama's tendency to out-perform his polling, you're right of course - but it hasnt been a foolproof thing, see California.

nimh wrote:

As for Obama's tendency to out-perform his polling, you're right of course - but it hasnt been a foolproof thing, see California.

Remember this?

http://www.pollster.com/ADemSuperTuesday.png

Second, early voting really killed Obama in CA; and this may happen in OH as well.
Cycloptichorn

In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in December, nearly half of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports immediate withdrawal of troops, while just over a third said they would be less likely to do so. Only 15 percent said a candidate's war position would make no difference.

Backing for the war divides sharply along partisan lines.

A staggering 92 percent of Democrats in that poll said they opposed the war while 65 percent of Republicans favored it. Another result could bode ill for McCain: 77 percent of independents also said they oppose the war. That swing voting group is critical in the general election.

Steve 41oo wrote:

As an observer, I dont think race comes into it. Obama appears to be just as popular with younger whites as he is with non whites, which is to the credit oft American voters.

I think it's naive to think that race doesn't come into it. Obama appears to be just as popular with younger whites as he is with non-whites is a testament to the future but can't be generalized to say that race is a non-issue today.

Other things to watch

Here are a few very plausible scenarios: Obama could net more delegates out of Vermont than Clinton does out of Ohio. Clinton can win both Ohio and Texas, 52%-48%, and lose the overall delegate battle tonight, thanks to how both Texas and Ohio award more delegates in African-American heavy areas as well as those crazy Texas caucuses. Speaking of Texas, Obama likely has a five-point cushion on the delegate front, meaning he could lose the state by five points and still net delegates. How will the media handle Clinton winning two states but Obama winning the most delegates tonight? Who wins the night? Bonus question: Who do we reward the state of Texas to if Clinton wins the popular vote in the primary but Obama nets the most delegates? And finally, for all the talk of bias against Clinton's campaign in the media, does anyone believe any other candidate could have lost 11-straight contests, be this far behind in delegates, and be simply two victories away from being back in the game? One thing the media has done is they've given Clinton every chance she wants to write her own comeback story. She gets another shot today.