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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 08:49 am
realjohnboy wrote:
Thank you Sozobe and Cyclops. I reckon I figured that Clinton is done for in TX. Ohio? She may still "win" (the popular vote), but does it really matter? She may win in OH by a few % (although I question that) but in TX and OH she doesn't gain on Obama in delegates.


If Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas, she will have to immediately concede. If she gains a split, she may hang in for a few days until the demand for her to quit reaches a crescendo and she finally concedes.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 08:53 am
nimh wrote:
That's just 24% agreeing with the Hillary line that anything short of seating Florida delegates on the basis of the primary results is some kind of disenfranchisement, and a total of 56% agreeing that the Jan. 29 primary results can not be used as basis for delegate seating.


That's interesting, thanks! I kind of like the idea of evenly splitting up the delegates (between Hillary and Obama). Allows delegates to take part without changing anything about the balance of power.
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Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 10:00 am
The item below is from Ben Smith's blog (Politico.com) this morning. Now that the Clinton campaign has become aware (apparently recently) that the Texas primary involves caucusing, they're thinking about litigation to prove that the Texas system is unfair to them.


Quote:
Suing Texas?

On a conference call earlier this week, Clinton field director Guy Cecil reportedly took a hard enough line on the Texas caucuses that the Texas Democratic Party sent a letter (.pdf) to both campaigns warning that any lawsuit would be a "tragedy" that could "cripple the momentum of a resurging Texas Democratic Party."

Caucuses in the past have been chaotic and overcrowded. I was told by a participant in the call that Clinton's representative specifically refused to agree in advance to moving elements of the process outdoors if the caucuses sites are over capacity.

Moments like this always have two sides: The substantive, legal one; and the political side. And whatever the substance, you can be sure the reported litigation threat will be an Obama talking point in the run-up to the election.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 10:01 am
Denying it now...

Quote:
Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee emails First Read, "The Clinton campaign has not made any threat 'direct or veiled' to engage in litigation and no legal action is being taken. The campaigns have been discussing primary night procedures and we asked for those procedures to be put in writing before we agree to them. It is standard operating procedure for our campaign -- and we presume any campaign -- to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it."


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/29/715709.aspx
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 10:02 am
Um, so what happens if they don't agree? They boycott the process?

That sounds like some BS to me

Cycloptichorn
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Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 10:39 am
Sounds like several people who were privvy to the conference call came away with the same characterization of the litigation threats...

http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/510802.html
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 03:22 pm
Sozobe wrote:
I kind of like the idea of evenly splitting up the delegates (between Hillary and Obama). Allows delegates to take part without changing anything about the balance of power.

That's one suggestion I dont get, to be honest. What advantage does that offer Florida? I mean, how's that better than not being seated at all? They'd have no influence either way, zilch, none. So why would they feel like they were met halfway in any way in that option?

I mean, if it's just so people can enjoy being at the Convention, you could just as well hand out free tickets or something, or however that works. But this just seems like a completely empty gesture, no?
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 03:25 pm
I thought about being a delegate, and I'd imagine that the regular people who are delegates would just want to take part. Go to whatever dinners or special presentations or perks there are, stand up and announce their vote in front of a national television audience, that sort of thing. That's what I have in mind.

But an imperfect solution, for sure.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 03:38 pm
More local reports -- "The Other Paper" (Columbus alternative weekly) is irritating me again:

http://www.theotherpaper.com/

(It won't let me select the cover image so go there to see it.)

Cover story: "The Church of Obama."

It's all cult cult messiah messiah blah blah blah.

Some interesting info in it though:

Quote:
If Clinton does lose Ohio, it will be in part because of a large turnout in the Columbus area. This week's Ohio Poll, commissioned by the University of Cincinnati, shows Clinton leading Obama by eight percentage points statewide, but he's clobbering her by a margin of 52 percent to 31 percent in Central Ohio.


My immediate area is way more Obama-supporting than I expected. Could just be campaign organization issues again. But I've seen many, many Obama yard signs (25? 40?) and zero -- ZERO -- Hillary signs.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Feb, 2008 05:09 pm
A finger-in-the-wind observation (prompted by getting another big, colorful, pro-Obama SEIU mailer):

I think a lot of people want this Democratic nomination to wrap up. I think the trajectory was something like:

Hillary presumed nominee (1yr ago +) = support her.

Obama arrives on scene = wow. But Hillary's still the powerhouse.

Obama wins Iowa = wow + hmmm.

Obama builds momentum = wow + support.

Obama becomes the front-runner = wow + let's seal this up.


Not banking on this, but a few different things have contributed to this impression. Sure hope that's how it works out...
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snood
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 03:31 am
Me too, Soz. The prospect of Obama actually getting the nomination and going head to head with McCain is heady as hell. But it's still sobering at the same time. The rise in nastiness from the opposition has been steady and palpable. I see it here on A2K and on the large scale of national media. It's taking me a minute to adjust to it, even though I knew it was coming...

I started a thread a while ago predicting the kind of nastiness the right would employ. At the time I wrote that, several here said that the Dems were inflicting on each other far worse than anything the right was going to do.

I thought then, and still do, that the level of raw bile that will spew forth from the right will be breathtaking if Obama (or Hillary) gets the nomination, and certainly the presidency.
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Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 05:27 am
Politics is a nasty business and not for the faint of heart. Obama, as he has shown the last few days, is ready, willing and able to give back anything thrown at him by the right-wing smear machine ten times over.

Obama will rightfully justify rejecting public funding (He never promised that he would accpet public funding despite Russert's false assertations) because he will need to rebut the outrageous lies the 527s and the whisper campaigns come up with.

That said, there will still be a number of morons who will be convinced that Obama is the Anti-Christ or, worse yet, a Muslim. But it's not going to matter. The Democratic turnout will negate anything the right-wing smear machine can muster this go round. The fact that Republicans are the worst kind of liars and hypocrites won't help them this year.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 06:55 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
willing and able to give back anything thrown at him by the right-wing smear machine ten times over.


so much for running a different kind of campaign...is that what you're trying to say?

Quote:

Obama will rightfully justify rejecting public funding (He never promised that he would accpet public funding despite Russert's false assertations) because he will need to rebut the outrageous lies the 527s and the whisper campaigns come up with.


He did promise, and if he changes his mind I swear on my mother that I will never vote for a democrat again.
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 07:20 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
Obama will rightfully justify rejecting public funding (He never promised that he would accpet public funding despite Russert's false assertations) because he will need to rebut the outrageous lies the 527s and the whisper campaigns come up with.


You've got your own bit of spin going there.

MDN Question: "If you are nominated for President in 2008 and your major opponents agree to forgo private funding in the general election campaign, will you participate in the presidential public financing system?"

Obama's Reply: "Yes. I have been a long-time advocate for public financing of campaigns combined with free television and radio time as a way to reduce the influence of moneyed special interests.

...

If I am the Democratic nominee, I will aggressively pursue an agreement with the Republican nominee to preserve a publicly financed general election."


http://www.midwestdemocracynetwork.org/templates/media/MDNPresidentialQuestionnaire.pdf


I suppose that doesn't qualify as far as you are concened because it wasn't a pinky swear?
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 07:27 am
I have mixed feelings about this one, but the latter is in keeping with what he's saying now. He's not simply saying "no," he's saying that he'd want to make an agreement re: outside spending (527's), etc.

The mixed feelings are a) I certainly took it as an agreement when it was made, and I thought it was cool, and b) 85 million seems like enough for 2 months, but c) it is clearly to McCain's advantage to have public financing while Obama would likely be giving up easy money (the Clinton and Obama campaigns combined apparently raised about 80 million in February alone) and d) I understand the desire to define what outside groups are and aren't allowed to do in this situation.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 08:00 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
Obama will rightfully justify rejecting public funding (He never promised that he would accpet public funding despite Russert's false assertations) because he will need to rebut the outrageous lies the 527s and the whisper campaigns come up with.

To check on your claim that he didn't make that pledge, I went back to the New York Times's report of the event at the time. (You can read it here.)

Three points catch my attention as I read this.

First, Obama clearly wants to lead his audience to believe he would reject public funds.

On February 8, 2008, The New York Times wrote:
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, issued an unusual challenge to his rivals on Wednesday. He proposed a voluntary agreement between the two major party nominees that would limit their fund-raising and spending for the general election.

[...]

In a Feb. 1 filing with the Federal Election Commission that was made public on Wednesday, Mr. Obama said that he, too, would seek enough private donations to remain competitive, but with a twist. He asked the commission if he could begin soliciting private donations with the understanding that he might later return the money to his contributors. If he won the Democratic nomination, he could then strike a deal with the Republican nominee to return their private donations and use only public money for the general election. For 2008, that would limit each general election campaign to about $85 million.


Second, even at the time, Obama hedged his pledge with weasel words that he now can fall back on.

Quote:
''Should both major party nominees elect to receive public funding, this would preserve the public financing system, now in danger of collapse, and facilitate the conduct of campaigns freed from any dependence on private fund-raising,'' Mr. Obama's filing said. (emphasis added, T.)

Notice the two signals Obama is sending here: To the ordinary reader, this sentence says that Obama cares deeply about the possible collapse of the public financing system. It signals he making a bold attempt to preserve it. But on top of this message about Obama, the "change" candidate, there is a dog-whistle signal to lawyers: For lawyers, he inserts those two words "both" and "elect", indicating that Obama might elect not to receive public financing after all. They're just two words in a message of about a hundred words -- easily missed by the ordinary reader, but creating a hedge to fall back on later.

Point three: Both McCain and Edwards called Obama's bluff at the time. Here's McCain's reaction:

The New York Times wrote:
On Wednesday, a spokesman for Mr. McCain suggested that Mr. Obama was trying to have it both ways, preserving the possibility of taking public money if he could not bring in enough private donations. ''Is he asking for the option of whatever is the higher number?'' Matt David, the spokesman, asked.

... and here's Edwards's

[quote="The New York Times]A spokeswoman for Mr. Edwards, who said this week that he, too, would sidestep the public financing system, scoffed at Mr. Obama's proposal.

'That sounds a little optimistic to us,'' the spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, said. ''There are a lot of ifs there.'' At this point, she said, Mr. Edwards ''is not prepared to do that.''[/quote]
My conclusion? I think there are two points to make here, one about the question of the "pledge", and one about the broader story of Obama, the candidate of change and integrity.

Did Obama make a pledge to stay in the public financing system? That depends on whether you evaluate it from the regular reader's or the lawyer's point of view. For an ordinary reader -- and voter, one supposes -- Obama offered the Republican candidate a deal in 2007. The likely Republican candidate, John McCain accepted the deal in 2008. On McCain's acceptance, Obama walks away from the deal. From an ordinary reader's point of view, Obama made a pledge and broke it. (Did I hear Sozobe say: "It's just not Midwestern"?)

From the lawyer's point of view, Obama wanted to have it both ways from the beginning, and his rivals McCain and Edwards rightly called him on it from the beginning.

On the broader point: Is Obama still credible as the candidate of change and integrity? The answer to this question is remarkably similar from both the regular reader's and the lawyer's point of view: To regular readers, there might have been reason hope when Obama made the pledge in 2007, but his bait-and-switch proved their hope wrong. To lawyers, Obama never presented himself as a serious "change" candidate in the first place. From the beginning, he was a hedger who wanted it both ways.

Whichever way one looks at it, the story of Obama, the candidate of change, hope, and integrity reveals itself as a fairytale here. he's just another politician in a suit: not particularly evil, but weaseling, opportunistic, and double-talking just like the rest of them.

I don't expect this to change any minds, however. To people like joefromchicago, blatham, and nimh, this story isn't telling anything they didn't know already. To those in this thread who're in love with Obama like gushing teenagers, no amount of facts will give them a realistic perspective.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 08:02 am
Uh, did you read the post immediately preceding yours?
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 08:03 am
sozobe wrote:
I have mixed feelings about this one, but the latter is in keeping with what he's saying now. He's not simply saying "no," he's saying that he'd want to make an agreement re: outside spending (527's), etc.

Obama knew about 527s when he offered the deal last year. They are a red herring in this context.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 08:05 am
sozobe wrote:
Uh, did you read the post immediately preceding yours?

If you're talking to me, no I didn't. I was responding to the Roxxxanne post I quoted on top of mine.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2008 08:07 am
And that's not inconsistent with fishin's quote, for example. "Aggressively pursue an agreement."

What Obama is saying now:

Quote:
If nominated, "I will sit down with John McCain and make sure that we have a system that is fair to both sides," Mr. Obama said, alluding to the need to close "loopholes."


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23378039/

He's not saying "no."
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