Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

And for good measure, here's the latest numbers and take from Gallup's daily tracking poll:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/013108DailyUpdateGraph2.gif

Quote:

The latest Democratic numbers show Hillary Clinton with a 43% to 39% advantage over Barack Obama among Democratic voters nationwide. That 4-point lead is the narrowest since early January, and it is a continuation of gains by Obama. The impact of John Edwards' exit from the Democratic race is less clear. Wednesday night's numbers (the first with Edwards excluded from the ballot) show no clear indication that either candidate is benefiting disproportionately.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/013108DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

Quote:

Initial indications show support for John McCain is increasing following his win in the Florida presidential primary and the subsequent withdrawal of Rudy Giuliani, who endorsed McCain. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from Jan. 28-30 shows McCain with a 15-percentage point lead over Mitt Romney. McCain is the top choice of 37% of Republican voters nationwide, compared with 22% for second-place Mitt Romney. In Wednesday's release, the gap between McCain and Romney was 11 points (32% and 21%, respectively). Mike Huckabee is holding steady in third place at 17% in the current numbers. Giuliani was included in the Jan. 28 and 29 interviewing, but removed from the ballot last night. The one-night interviews from Jan. 30 -- with Giuliani out of the race -- show a substantial increase in McCain's support, suggesting his lead will likely expand in the coming days.

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Wow, McCain's really breaking out.

Little uptick for Hillary there too. 1% gain for her, 3% for Obama.

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Nimh, you'll love this analysis. The state-by-state breakdowns are fantastic.

Too much to reprint here -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831

Cycloptichorn

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(Still digesting, but have to say I love the coinage of "Boratgate" for the mining dealie... heh...)

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Nimh, you'll love this analysis. The state-by-state breakdowns are fantastic.

Too much to reprint here -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831

Wowza! Impressive indeed.

Gotta love that his overall projection for the delegate count on Super Tuesday is Clinton 50,4% : Obama 49,6% ... Youch! Shocked

(But hey, didnt I tell ya that we shouldnt count on getting more than 50/50? I just hadnt figured out it would be that exact an even split! Smile

)

All depends on tonight... (and perhaps tomorrow..)

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That sounds somewhat like Obama's campaign.

What with the huge flush of money, however, he is advertising in all 20 (or 22) 2/5 states vs. Hillary's 12 states.

Cycloptichorn

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Romney is the Republican insurgent as Obama is the Democratic insurgent. There are many similarities between their campaigns.

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New Rasmussen poll out on New Jersey. Obama is closing in on Hillary, but he wont make it to a win here. Edwards voters seem to have gone 2:1 towards Obama, but that still puts Hillary almost over the 50% barrier:

Code:



NEW JERSEY



Rasmussen

1/30 (compared with 1/15)



49% (+ 4) Clinton

37% (+10) Obama



--- (-11) Edwards

--- (- 2) Kucinich

From the crosstabs: again a ginormous gender gap, "Clinton leads by 24-percentage points among women while Obama leads by five-points among men." In terms of favourability ratings, too: 84% of women has a favourable opinion of Hillary, and 74% of Obama; but 82% of men have a favourable impression of Obama, and just 68% of Hillary.

Also from the crosstabs: the widespread consensus on blogs and forums that Hillary would be unelectable, especially compared to Obama, is not shared on the ground, "Seventy-seven percent (77%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by the Democrats. An identical percentage say that Obama would have a chance to win."

+++++++++++++++++++

A new poll on Massachusetts has numbers that conflict with those from a Rasmussen poll a few days ago, which had Hillary's lead over Obama down to six points. This Survey USA poll, conducted on December 31, does have Obama gaining some ground in the state, presumably picking up most of the Edwards voters. But despite the Kennedy endorsement, he still trails Hillary by a whopping 24 points. Since Survey USA polled the state a week earlier as well, we can compare the numbers:

Code:



MASSACHUSETTS



Survey USA

1/31 (compared with 1/22-23)

 

57% (- 2) Clinton

33% (+11) Obama



--- (-11) Edwards

From the crosstabs: another gender gap of incredulous making size: among men the two candidates are tied at 44%, but among women Hillary leads by 39 points (!), 65% to 26%.
Obama is unsurprisingly strongest among the youngest voters, but Hillary really does seem to have made up ground among young voters since Iowa and New Hampshire: in this poll her support is evenly spread among age groups.

Obama does better among independents (39%) than among Democrats (30%), but trails Hillary with double digits among both. Obama does much better in "South East Massachusetts & Cape" than in the Boston are or West/Central MA; I dont know the state of course, so I dont know what that implies.

When asked about what the next President's top issue is, almost three quarters opted for one of the following three: the economy (40%), Iraq (20%) or health care (12%). As always, Hillary does very good among those who cite the economy (+29) and less good on Iraq (+21), and surprisingly even less well on health care (+13). Among smaller groups, such as those naming the environment, terrorism or immigration, Obama does relatively well too.

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I made a timing error and only caught the last 20 minutes or so of the debate. I'd been really nervous about it anyway, not wanting to see either one of them fall on the triple lutz. And that last 20 minutes was delightful with both candidates competent and confident and almost...almost looking like an irrepressible/irresistable ticket. I clearly wasn't the only one thinking along those lines as the prospect was put to them and that LA audience clearly thought it a damned fine idea too. Barack's immediate response was funny as hell and both of them followed up with gracious statements which were, to me, as accurate as they were gracious.

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I agree.

Cool graph from pollster.com:

http://www.pollster.com/ADemSuperTuesday.png

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Great graph! But it needs another dot for CT:

Survey USA

Obama 48%
Clinton 44%
Other 4%
Undecided 5%

OBAMARAMA

Cycloptichorn

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In Northeast, many Giuliani voters break towards Romney - but in vain

Rasmussen also polled the Republican race in New Jersey on Jan. 30. It had polled the same race two weeks ago - and back then both Rudy and Fred Thompson were still in the race. At the time, Ol' Fred had just 6%, but Rudy was in second place right behind McCain, with 27%. So how has the race changed?

Code:



NEW JERSEY



Rasmussen

1/30 (compared with 1/15) 



43% (+14) McCain

29% (+19) Romney

 7% (- 3) Huckabee

 6% (+ 1) Paul



--- (-27) Giuliani

--- (- 6) Thompson

In short, it looks like McCain will win the state - and it's a winner-takes-all state, so thats all the story says. But for the record, Giuliani voters appear to have split pretty evenly between Mac and Romney, despite predictions that they'd massively support McCain.

In nearby Connecticut, the picture looks much the same. Survey USA conducted a first poll there on Jan. 30-31. Compared with a Hartford Courant poll from two weeks earlier, Romney actually picked up more extra support (+20) than McCain (+14) now that Giuliani and Thompson are out of the race. Since Rudy had 16% here and Fred just 6%, this suggests that a lot of Giuliani voters switched to Romney. But none of it will probably matter a whit, since in the totals McCain is far ahead, and it's another winner-takes-all state.

Code:



CONNECTICUT



Survey USA

1/30-31 



53% McCain

31% Romney

 6% Huckabee

 5% Paul

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Obama within 5 in TN

http://seanbraisted.blogspot.com/2008/02/new-tennessee-primary-poll.html

Obama within 6 in NJ

http://politickernj.com/poll-nj-primary-now-play-clintons-lead-falls-six-points-16045

Obama within 3 nationally

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104095/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Cycloptichorn

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In New York, Obama is closing in, but Hillary is already over 50%

As Edwards and undecided voters break towards the frontrunners, Obama picks up most of the points. But with Hillary supporters keeping to their candidate, it wont yield him a win.

A day or two ago, I noted a poll from New York that had Obama at 33%, the highest number he had yet polled. That was before Edwards dropped out. Now Survey USA has Obama at 38%, easily breaking the record. But the same poll has Hillary at 54%, on a par with her best polling earlier this month, hardly below her rating in a previous Survey USA poll for example.

Code:



NEW YORK



Survey USA

1/30-31 (compared to 1/9-10)



54% (-2) Clinton

38% (+9) Obama

I posted this as TNR comment this afternoon:

It's true that there is little movement *away from* Hillary, but there is a lot of movement showing Obama picking/catching up. Seems like undecideds and Edwards supporters are generally going to Obama (though regional differences apply re the Edwards vote), while those who already favoured Hillary are staying put. Well, thats the broadbrush generalisation type summary of the numbers. Strategically, what this would mean is that Hillary is looking good in states where her support was already close to or above 50% - notably NY, NJ and MA, and perhaps even CA. But in a lot of the smaller Super Tuesday states where she wasnt ever polling much over 40%, Obama could easily leapfrog her. I'm thinking MN, MO, CO, AZ, CT and perhaps even CA, though apart from one poll each for CO and CT that's speculation still for now. Obama did already leapfrog her in GA and AL, relying largely on the support of black voters, and of course has IL. Considering distribution of delegates is mostly proportionally, it may not be so important who wins this or that state though. If Hill had half the vote and keeps it until election day, but Obama moves up from, say, a third to half as well, then that alone is enough to keep Obama a real contender.
Obama now leads in Connecticut

As Cyclo already noted, Obama now takes a lead in the Democratic race in Connecticut, according to the same Survey USA poll. Presumably thanks to Edwards supporters breaking his way - looks like they went about 2:1. Compared to a poll conducted by Rasmussen just 3-4 days earlier when Edwards was still in and polling 11%, Hillary is up 4 and Obama up 8.

Code:



CONNECTICUT



Survey USA

1/30-31 



48% Obama

44% Clinton

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If Obama even gets 40% of the votes in NY, if he can carry NYC (where he is polling strongly) then it is a major victory for him.

Cycloptichorn

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Analysis.

Quote:

There appears to be some serious movement to Obama. The meaning of the national polls on Super Tuesday is hard to gauge. Respondents to the polls will certainly include many people whose states vote on Tuesday. But these surveys will also be querying people who live in states that won't yet be voting, as well as states that have already voted (including the big states of FL and MI). Still, as a very rough guide for a quasi-national primary, it looks like Clinton is holding on to a narrow lead but that Obama is quickly and dramatically closing the gap.

A notable trend that could be significant for the eventual nomination is the African-American vote. Delegates will be awarded based on proportional votes. In some states a small portion of the delegates go to the winner of teh entire state, but most of the delegates are awarded by Congressional district. Since many African-Americans are concentrated in a small number of districts, even in states where Clinton should win, possibly even with a solid statewide margin, like New York and New Jersey, Obama should rack up delegates by running well in districts that are heavily African-American. In New York Clinton is polling well ahead of Obama, but he's pulling 60% of the Black vote, and in New Jersey it's 70%.

Obama should run the table in IL, and if he can win California, they'll probably come out of the big states even or with him slightly ahead in delegates. I cant hazard to guess how thinks will play out in the smaller states.

There's no way anyone effectively puts away the nomination on Super Tuesday. But if Obama does very well--a tie or better--it could be the kind of blow that causes the Clinton campaign's knees to buckle. Then the next round of states includes MD, VA, DC and HA, where he could possibly win huge.

Obama needs to survive February 5th in decent shape. If he does, and his money is good, he should have a good remainder of February, and Clinton will need to survive February, because there aren't many states where one would expect her to have a significant advantage. All of this is pointing to a momentous set of contests on March 5th, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont cast their ballot. In the meantime, Clinton's task is to stop Obama's momentum, while Obama's is to keep it going to overcome Clinton's leads in most of the February 5th states.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/1/154934/3498/663/447836

Clinton cannot blunt Obama's momentum without going negative.

Clinton cannot go negative without adding to Obama's momentum.

...

OBAMARAMA

Cycloptichorn

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Quote:

Voter registration for Tuesday's election is about 700,000 higher than during the last California presidential primary four years ago.
In December, statewide registration already had set a record for a presidential primary. The current registration is 15.7 million voters, compared to just more than 15 million for the 2004 primary. Secretary of State Debra Bowen says more than 240,000 people had registered to vote since December.

About 43 percent of California voters are registered as Democrats, who added 150,000 voters. The Republican Party added 40,000 voters and accounts for 33 percent of the electorate.

Those who decline to state a party affiliation are 19.4 percent of all voters, up from 16.4 percent in 2004. The most voters ever registered for a California election was 16.5 million in November 2004.

Reminder: Those 19% "decline to state" registrants are permitted to vote only on the Democratic Ballot. The Republican Ballot is a "closed" election.

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Butrflynet wrote:

Calif. voter registration swells for early presidential primary [..]

In December, statewide registration already had set a record for a presidential primary. The current registration is 15.7 million voters, compared to just more than 15 million for the 2004 primary. [..]

Secretary of State Debra Bowen says more than 240,000 people had registered to vote since December.

About 43 percent of California voters are registered as Democrats, who added 150,000 voters. The Republican Party added 40,000 voters and accounts for 33 percent of the electorate.

Those who decline to state a party affiliation are 19.4 percent of all voters, up from 16.4 percent in 2004.

Interesting stuff! Encouraging, too - in general, and presumably for Obama especially.

I was a bit confused by the numbers though - nothing wrong with them, but they used so many different yardsticks through another in such short span I couldnt see the forest for the trees! Numbers versus percentages, comparison with 2004 versus numbers since December..

So I looked up the original report, and it's really quite striking!

Compared to the 2004 primaries, the Republicans actually lost some 140 thousand registered voters; the Democrats have gained some 238 thousand, but the real rise is among those who declined to state a party: a whopping 573 thousand of those!

So thats definitely good news for Obama. Hillary has benefited from an inflow of new voters as well, in Iowa and Florida for example, but a superincrease of new Independent voters, all of whom can only vote in the Dem primary like Butrflynet points out, that must be a lot for Obama...

Here's a table:

Code:



       2004     2008    Diff.



Dems  6,519k   6,757k   +238k



Reps  5,372k   5,232k   -140k



Other   724k     676k   - 48k



Ind   2,475k   3,048k   +573k

(The people registered for "Other parties", by the way, turn out to mostly be for the Green party - over 4% of total registered voters in Humboldt and Mendocino counties - and the American Independent Party - over 4% of total registered voters in Lassen and Tehama counties. What is the American Independent Party?)

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Obama within 3 nationally

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104095/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Right on!

Here's the latest numbers from Rasmussen's daily tracking poll, compared with those from Jan. 29, the day of the Florida primaries:

43% (+2) Clinton
37% (+5) Obama

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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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