New polls from Georgia and Tennessee yield contradictory clues on where Edwards, Giuliani voters go
Three new polls out from the South: two from Georgia (by PPP and InsiderAdvantage) and one from Tennessee (by InsiderAdvantage). All done on Jan. 30, so after Edwards and Giuliani dropped out. With both parties' frontrunners locked in a tight contest, the most pressing question is: where do their voters go?
Well, eh, depends. First the Dems: the two state give off opposite signals.
Edwards: Two states, two conflicting signals
In Georgia, two previous polls this month had Hillary trailing at 33-35% and Obama in the lead with 36-41%. Edwards had 12-13%.
The two new polls show Hillary only modestly higher: 36% and 41%. But Obama gets a major boost: his numbers are suddenly at 51%-52%, or over 10% higher.
So the Edwards folks go to Obama? I mean - there's no apples-to-apples comparison here, as all these polls were done by different pollsters, but it sure looks like that!
Except in Tennessee, it looks like the opposite.
There, two previous polls this month had Hillary at 34% around the 20th, and up at 43% just the other day, the 28th. They had Obama at a modest 20% around the 20th, but up at 32% the other day. Both times, Edwards had 16%.
Now Edwards is out, and a new poll gives Hillary a whopping 59%, while Obama is down at 26%.
So the jury's out on how the game plays out in Edwards' Southern backyard.
What about Giuliani?
In previous polls, Giuliani had a fair share of votes in Georgia; he was no frontrunner, but in two polls this month he had 9% and 11%. Now he's dropped out, and two new polls have appeared.
But the results are hard to read. Because it's not just Giuliani who is losing votes. Huckabee was the clear frontrunner in this state in both earlier polls this month. He had 31-34%, against 18-19% for McCain and 14-16% for Romney.
But even in this heartland state, Huckabee has now dropped a solid ten points, and is down to 24% in both of these new polls. That means he no longer leads the race.
Whom do the wandering former Huck and Rudy voters benefit? Romney more than McCain, says PPP, giving Mitt the edge with 32% over McCain's 31%. McCain more than Romney, says InsiderAdvantage, giving Mac a comfortable 35% vs 24% lead over Romney.
The Tennesseeans cant help solve this question. There, Rudy never had any support in the first place. The rare supporters of the libertine New Yorker there may have gone to Ron Paul. But the Tennessee poll does give McCain the lead, with 33%, over both Huckabee (25%) and Romney (18%).
In both states, it's still a three-way race.
The numbers
Code:
DEMOCRATS
Georgia, PPP Georgia, IA Tennessee, IA
Clinton 41% 36% 59%
Obama 51% 52% 26%
REPUBLICANS
Georgia, PPP Georgia, IA Tennessee, IA
McCain 31% 35% 33%
Romney 32% 24% 18%
Huckabee 24% 24% 25%
Paul 3% 5% 9%
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