Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

October 18, 2008
SACRAMENTO -- Dozens of newly minted Republican voters say they were duped into joining the party by a GOP contractor with a trail of fraud complaints stretching across the country.

Voters contacted by The Times said they were tricked into switching parties while signing what they believed were petitions for tougher penalties against child molesters. Some said they were told that they had to become Republicans to sign the petition, contrary to California initiative law. Others had no idea their registration was being changed.

It is a bait-and-switch scheme familiar to election experts. The firm hired by the California Republican Party -- a small company called Young Political Majors, or YPM, which operates in several states -- has been accused of using the tactic across the country.

Election officials and lawmakers have launched investigations into the activities of YPM workers in Florida and Massachusetts. In Arizona, the firm was recently a defendant in a civil rights lawsuit. Prosecutors in Los Angeles and Ventura counties say they are investigating complaints about the company.


The firm, which a Republican Party spokesman said is paid $7 to $12 for each registration it secures, has denied any wrongdoing and says it has never been charged with a crime.

The 70,000 voters YPM has registered for the Republican Party this year will help combat the public perception that it is struggling amid Democratic gains nationally, give a boost to fundraising efforts and bolster member support for party leaders, political strategists from both parties say.

Those who were formerly Democrats may stop receiving phone calls and literature from that party, perhaps affecting its get-out-the-vote efforts. They also will be given only a Republican ballot in the next primary election if they do not switch their registration back before then.

Some also report having their registration status changed to absentee without their permission; if they show up at the polls without a ballot they may be unable to vote.

The Times randomly interviewed 46 of the hundreds of voters whose election records show they were recently re-registered as Republicans by YPM, and 37 of them -- more than 80% -- said that they were misled into making the change or that it was done without their knowledge.

It all sounds familiar to Beverly Hill, a Democrat and the former election supervisor in Florida's Alachua County. About 200 voters -- mostly college students -- were unwittingly registered as Republicans there in 2004 by YPM staffers using the same tactic, Hill said.

"It is just incredible that this can keep happening election after election," she said.

YPM and Republican Party officials said they were surprised by the complaints. The officials said the signature gatherers wear shirts bearing the Republican symbol, an elephant -- a contention disputed by some of the voters interviewed.

Every person registered signs an affidavit confirming they voluntarily joined the GOP, party leaders said.

The document that voters thought was an initiative petition has no legal implications at all. YPM founder Mark Jacoby said the petition was clearly labeled as a "plebiscite," which does nothing more than show public support.

He also said that plainclothes investigators for Secretary of State Debra Bowen, a Democrat, have conducted multiple spot checks and told his firm it is doing nothing improper.


"Every time, they gave us a thumbs-up," Jacoby said. "People are not being tricked."

But Nicole Winger, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office, said the agency "does not give an OK or seal of approval to voter registration groups."

You get that the "particular point" he was referring to was the FBI stuff, right? ("Still, if I were the Secret Service FBI (**), I would probably want to know the identity of this trader.") (Sorry if yes, I just couldn't tell.) Nate Silver basically tossed something off about the FBI and then in comments people went ballistic and he went back and updated -- hey, calm down, I'm not implying anything in particular here, too much is being made of this particular point.

Cyclo's new story confirmed:
A. Experts agree Intrade has been more accurate than polls.

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Cyclo's new story confirmed:
A. Experts agree Intrade has been more accurate than polls.

Unnamed and unspecified "experts", I may add, making the assertion pretty much meaningless.

The man is called Silver, by the way, not "Silverman".

(No, I'm not sure why defense of his nonsense annoys me so much.)

Weak, dude. It would take less time than that post took to admit Silver lied through his teeth about his risk-free gambling proposal. [..] It would have taken long enough to type "my bad"

You just haven’t been acting like your usual exceedingly reasonable self lately.

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Weak, dude. It would take less time than that post took to admit Silver lied through his teeth about his risk-free gambling proposal. [..] It would have taken long enough to type "my bad"

Yes, if I thought you were right that Silver "lied through his teeth" (insert rolling eye smiley here), it would have taken no time at all to admit so. And there's the rub. I dont.

I was apparently too generous when I described him as clueless, because if he's well informed, he is a bald-faced liar. Look again:

Silver wrote:

But any time they win by fewer than 7 points but more than 3, you win both bets, and take home $20,000 (less the casino's vigorish) for absolutely no risk.

Absolutely no risk? $1,000 is what you lose every time the score doesn't hit that narrow margin. That is substantial risk, so this statement is a bald-faced lie, especially if it is coming from an expert.

Hey, doesn't anyone on this thread want to discuss POLLS anymore?

Here's one that's interesting, and a little scary.

The AP-GfK Poll

I know I tend to channel frustration into essentially meaningless debates (it helps me take my focus off things that really matter)...