Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

@nimh,

Thanks nimh. It is roughly as I suspected. The same people pushing evolution in schools voted to have themselves bailed out of the mess they had created and at the expense of the rest. Media centres leading the pack.

Evolution theory approves and justifies fat-cat self-indulgence. That's what it was intended to do in the first place by the Manchester School.

They've **** their tank full and are dunking us all in it.

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The Pollster.com average for national poll numbers now places Obama at 50.1 .

It is going to be difficult for McCain to win unless he can get that number down.

McCain is now spending 100% of his advertising money on attack ads. Prepare to see a slimy and dirty campaign from here on out, as they accuse Obama of everything from 'associating with terrorists' to 'eating babies alive.'

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

It's you Cyclo who is associating Mr Obama with "associating with terrorists" and "eating babies alive." None of us would ever have thought of suggesting such things. I think he's just henpecked. He's so gracious. Just what we need for screwing the hard-faced men on Wall Street eh?

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@spendius,

spendius wrote:

It's you Cyclo who is associating Mr Obama with "associating with terrorists" and "eating babies alive." None of us would ever have thought of suggesting such things. I think he's just henpecked. He's so gracious. Just what we need for screwing the hard-faced men on Wall Street eh?

In fact, 'associates with terrorists' is one of the favorite smears of the right-wing here in America, and 'lets babies die' is a close second. The fact that you are unaware of the perfidy the Conservatives have resorted too does not mean that these tactics are not being used.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Well- I'll take your word for it Cyclo but I'll also allow that it is possible Mr Obama's supporters put those things out as a way of smearing Conservatives as perfidious.

It was your previous post that had juxtaposed the three ideas in one sentence which suggested to me that possibility.

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Good evening. Today is the last day to register to vote in VA for this election.
As of near the end of last week there were something like 300,ooo new voters and traffic today was described as "very heavy." I did some googling and came up with the number of registered voters in 2003 as being 4,000,000.
There are two new polls out (10/4 and 10/5) showing Obama up by something like 51-44.
NPR has been doing a lot of reporting from VA in the last few days. I still question how honest people are with the pollsters. Nimh and I talked about this a few days ago. People may say they are Democrats and say they have no problem with voting for a black person...but...when they get into the voting booth just being unble to push the button for Obama.
(ps to Nimh. Did I hear you say there is some other place regarding polling you are hanging out at?)

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@realjohnboy,

Yep, I've got a new update on observationalism.com now. It's (relatively) short though! The one from three days ago (also there) was more detailed.

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New update on the daily tracking polls on the observationalism blog !

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@nimh,

G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle for Congress

Quote:

WASHINGTON " The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say.

Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week’s bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.

good graphic maps at the link

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In a post entitled, 'The fat lady has entered the building,' at 538.com,

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3029/2930347428_4dc5d8b589_o.png

Obama is basically polling at his peak performance all year.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

They are simply trying to provoke Mr McCain into offering more sweeties. Do you not understand politics?

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@spendius,

You are slowly being swallowed up by Global Capitalism. You have lost control of America. It hardly matters who wins the election now.

In fact there is a good case for postponing it. It hardly looks the time to be handing this baby over to a new and inexperienced team. Or how about making President Bush Secretary of State for Survival and relegating the White House to a Visit Event. A bit like how Russia managed the problem. Vlad's running on the hoof.

You can bet your boots that Troopergate started with some shagging and we look a bit silly debating such things with the graphs of the DOW looking like shark's teeth. You can't trivialise the election much more than being focussed on a shagging at this time in our affairs.

It could even like like Troopergate is a way of trying not to think of the Financial Crisis.

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Just wanted to post a visual aid, of how big a gulf separates the two candidates by this time:

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.png

McCain has truly sunk himself in a hole so deep, no candidate has historically ever climbed back out of at this late date. And the trends don't seem like they are slowing at all. At this rate I'd be surprised if McCain doesn't end up with less than 45% of the national vote.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Oh, my. Florida is now showing solid Blue at Pollster… 51.2>44.4. I think it's been known for months that McCain could not win without BOTH FL and OH... and it now looks like he'll get neither. I do still have some residual reservations about the Bradley effect... but that would be one hell of an effect.

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@OCCOM BILL,

I am slowly resigning myself to losing my bet on Honest John.

I lost my 5 to 1 bet on Mr Bush Snr. I still find that one hard to take. I thought Mr Clinton was selling bolts of cloth at a swap meet.

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@OCCOM BILL,

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Oh, my. Florida is now showing solid Blue at Pollster… 51.2>44.4. I think it's been known for months that McCain could not win without BOTH FL and OH... and it now looks like he'll get neither. I do still have some residual reservations about the Bradley effect... but that would be one hell of an effect.

Yup, and it would have to be in about, oh, 6 states.

Remember, in Obama's case, the Bradley effect will only be... 1/2 as strong Laughing

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

You're raising my hopes Cyclo.

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Funny stuff:

http://www.theonion.com/content//node/84818?utm_source=embedded_video_2

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@nimh,

Great link, sent it to my pollster friends.

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Cool

I have a new post up on Observationalism:

Observationalism: Should Obama backers check themselves?

With Obama riding high in the polls, comparisons between John McCain and Bob Dole are gaining ever more currency. But Jake Tapper warned Obama backers to "Check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself". Is he right? His point about not getting overconfident is always good, but he does cherry-pick his data to make it. A comparison with last month-polling numbers from the last three elections (with graph! ;-).

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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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