Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

@sozobe,

Quote:

I recommend Frank Rich's Op-Ed from today. It's a bunch of stuff I keep saying, but he does it much better. (That's why he gets the big bux.)

Frank Rich wrote:
.......

The poor guy should be winning in a landslide against the despised party of Bush-Cheney, and he’s not. [...various "...and he's not"s truncated...]

....

One tip to all folks here on A2K, Bush Cheney is not nearly as despised as you may think. Only the wild eyed libs, the extremists hate Bush Cheney with a passion. They hated Reagan too. It won't matter. Most people know deep down that Bush is a decent man, and the press trying to build a case otherwise every single day won't change it. Just because a majority do not approve of the way he is doing his job right now, remember, a high percentage of those people at one time did, and of the ones not approving now, a large number of those still respect the man.

1 Reply

@okie,

Just for reference:

http://www.pollster.com/AAAPollsterBushApproval600.png

Not that there aren't people who would happily point out polls that agree with their opinion, while questioning all the polls that disagree with them.

I just find it odd that, in two consecutive posts, you imply that Obama is "fading", based on a single poll that shows him tied with McCain at 44% - whereas the conclusion you draw from the polls showing Bush's job approval rates below 27% is that "a large number of those [disapproving of his job performance] still respect the man".

1 Reply

@old europe,

I am commenting on something alot deeper than approval ratings. I may not approve of how somebody is doing their job, but I can respect them. For example, I do not approve of some of Bush's decisions, but I do respect the man. Clinton, no on both. Kerry, no on both. McCain, I do not necessarily approve of him, he was almost my last choice as Republican candidate, but I respect the guy for the most part.

Obama is problematic, I disagree with him on virtually everything. Right now, I respect him more than both Clintons and Kerry. Yet, I am in a state of flux in regard to respect for him. It has gone down somewhat, but I still find him fairly respectable, but that could change as the process continues to unfold if I find him being more blatantly dishonest about what he actually believes. I find him a cryptic person and not being entirely straight with voters so far. Mostly I find him mostly wrong and very naive, with no experience, a guy that is trying to become elected without a track record.

Again, approval ratings only scratch the surface in regard to how people actually regard a man, deep down. Deep down, I still believe most Americans respect George Bush, despite the media blitz against him.

1 Reply

@okie,

Okay... I did get that point about Bush. No problem with that.

What irked me was that, on the one hand, you were holding up one single poll to conclude that, "hey, look, Obama is fading", and on the other hand, you dismiss a rather large number of polls showing far worse numbers for Bush.

If you're saying that, in your opinion, polls are just not capable of tracking how people really feel about a politician, and that, in spite of what the numbers say, people might still have a lot of respect for a specific person - okay. I'm glad you extend that interpretation not only to McCain, but also to Obama.

Personally, I think that polls (especially aggregated polls rather than one single poll that might make the headlines) are a valid tool to at least get a feeling about the current opinion the general population has about a certain person.

1 Reply

@old europe,

Fair enough, oe. I admit to being partisan, as everyone is. And I think it is an important point that job approval ratings only touch on one aspect of how people feel about a politician. There is much more to it than that. One good example, Truman's approval ratings were quite low I think when he left office, but now politicians routinely cite him as their hero and example. The following site shows his ratings ranged from 87%, down to 22%, even lower than Bush's.

http://www.slate.com/id/2188146/

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Anyone who's considering measuring what the "convention bounce" is for Obama later on, should take note of the "baseline" today:

Quote:

Today's numbers are of some significance, though, as they represent the last real clean read that we'll get on the election before the conventions (even tomorrow's numbers may begin to be impacted by Obama's VP bounce, if he gets one). So for purposes of establishing a baseline, the RCP average shows Obama ahead by 1.6 points, Pollster.com by 1.4 points, and our [fivethirtyeight.com] numbers, which for whatever reason have usually been the most McCain-friendly, show Obama ahead by a mere 0.1 points.

--Nate Silver

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@nimh,

I presume that my man is making a run in the home stretch and the long-time front-runner has started changing its legs.

Anybody in favour of change should look at the legs first.

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@nimh,

Btw, keep that pollster.com number -- Obama +1.4 -- in mind and then click back to this post from two weeks ago, which mapped out how Obama has been doing so far compared to Kerry and Gore.

Each vertical line represents a week, so put your finger on Obama's blue line, which was then at around +3.3, and draw it down to +1.4 at two lines to the right. It'll end up about 1 point higher than where Kerry was.

To be honest, I am a little surprised that Obama hasn't been doing somewhat better. I was always sceptical about the ubiquitous bluster, just a couple of months ago, about turning point victories that would turn a swathe of states blue (not from the Obama campaign, of course, but from various liberal pundits, including posters here). That was never going to happen. But we are four years on. Bush's approval rating is down from around 50% to under 30%. The job ratings for the Republicans in Congress are down from 40-45% to 20-30%.

Of course, Bush isnt running, McCain is running. But the data is inconclusive about how major that Republican advantage vis-a-vis 2004 is. Comparing McCain's favourability ratings this summer with Bush's favourability ratings in July-August 2004, the CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ and LA Times/Bloomberg polls actually find barely any difference, whereas the USA Today/Gallup and Newsweek polls do find a major difference.

And it's not just about poll ratings. The economy is now performing worse. 9/11 is seven years, rather than just three years ago. And to me at least, Obama seems doubtlessly more skilled a politician, and sympathetic a person, than Kerry was. But nevertheless Obama's polling against McCain is very much in the same range as Kerry's was against Bush -- and has been since March.

I know there's a few conservatives and a liberal or two who erupt into indignation if you say so, but I cant help thinking that Obama being the first black presidential nominee ever must have a lot to do with it ... Then again, it doesnt really matter why Obama's polling is in John Kerry-range, it's good reason to be very wary either way.

1 Reply

@nimh,

Geek post; if you're interested in the overall trends rather than the minutiae of polling, just read the post above and ignore this one please.

nimh wrote:

Of course, Bush isnt running, McCain is running. But the data is inconclusive about how major that Republican advantage vis-a-vis 2004 is. Comparing McCain's favourability ratings this summer with Bush's favourability ratings in July-August 2004, the CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ and LA Times/Bloomberg polls actually find barely any difference, whereas the USA Today/Gallup and Newsweek polls do find a major difference.

Thought I'd post the numbers, now that I've looked them up..

How to read the table below:

Dont confuse favourability ratings (the ones listed here) with approval ratings (the ones shown for Bush in the pollster.com graph Old Europe posted above).
When there were several polls done by one pollster in the July-August period, I've taken the average.
Compare how Bush did then in one poll and how McCain does now in the same poll. Don't bother about comparing the results about either McCain or Bush from one poll with those from another. The numbers diverge widely because of the different ways in which the question is asked.

I.e.: NBC/WSJ and CBS/NYT explicitly include the options "neutral" or "undecided" in their question, which many respondents then choose - far more than when the question is simply, "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?", with no other choices mentioned. Which means that far fewer choose outright for either "favorable" or "unfavorable", which in turn means that the net number comes to look very differently.

Also: the NBC/WSJ poll offers the choices, "very" and "somewhat" positive or negative, and the favourability rating then is the first two categories together. That, too, makes for a very different dynamic than when the options are just "favorable" or "unfavorable".

Finally, while Gallup and Newsweek ask people whether they have a "favorable or unfavorable opinion" about the man, the LA Times poll asks, "do you have a positive or negative feeling" about him. That leads to different reactions, and more dont-know answers.

Code:

Favourability rating



Poll ............... Bush 7-8/04 ...... McCain 7-8/08 ... McCain (dis)advantage



CBS/NYT ............... 43% ............... 34% ............... - 9

NBC/WSJ ............... 49% ............... 45% ............... - 4

LA Times .............. 53% ............... 46% ............... - 7

Newsweek .............. 48% ............... 55% ............... + 7

Gallup ................ 53% ............... 62% ............... + 9





Favourability minus Unfavourability



Poll ............... Bush 7-8/04 ...... McCain 7-8/08 ... McCain (dis)advantage





CBS/NYT ............... - 3 ................. 0 ............... + 3

NBC/WSJ ............... + 6 ............... +12 ............... + 6

LA Times .............. + 7 ............... + 8 ............... + 1

Newsweek .............. + 3 ............... +23 ............... +20

Gallup ................ + 7 ............... +29 ............... +22

1 Reply

@nimh,

ok, nimh -- If you're so inclined... Wha's happenin'?

1 Reply

@JPB,

48 - 45 McCain per Gallup, September 7, 2008

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/07/gallup-daily-poll-gives-mccain-largest-margin-since-ma-over-obama/

1 Reply

@okie,

Quote:

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

McCain enjoying increase in support following convention

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones

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Oh dear...

http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/8933/intradejm8.png

1 Reply

@nimh,

Time to spend my money with those odds.

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McCains bump holds 48 - 44.

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspx

1 Reply

@okie,

Fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com both show the election at a dead heat in the electoral college as well.

1 Reply

@engineer,

I like the map:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2181/2848642523_cdac800285_o.png

I can also see some other states turning red if Obama doesn't turn this around.

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@okie,

McCain-Palin seeing a 'Gibson Bounce'?

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/09/mccainpalin_seeing_a_gibson_bo.html

1 Reply

@okie,

It is striking that the red areas have a continuous border, oil, access to the sea, low population density and fertile agriculture.

And a VP candidate who has flirted with "independence" ideas.

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@okie,

okie wrote:

McCain-Palin seeing a 'Gibson Bounce'?

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/09/mccainpalin_seeing_a_gibson_bo.html

Unlikely. While McCain did jump into a three-point lead from a tie in the Rasmussen daily poll as the blogger noted, his lead dropped from 4 to 2 points in the Gallup one in the same time. And the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll actually had a McCain lead of 2 points reverse into an Obama lead of 2 points in the same time.

I posted this graph last night on the Obama thread - it looks like McCain's post-convention bounce is stagnating or maybe even starting to fade away again:

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/8926/dailytrackingpollswb9.png

2 Replies

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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