Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

I posted a couple of replies there that I'll copy here. They include a link to a table, which I can just paste in here in full - it's an overdue update of similar tables I posted here before. (More detail to follow.)

--------------------

I'm sure I'm not the only geek who keeps a running Excel sheet with the results of all state-level opinion polls about presidential match-ups. (I use the Survey USA, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac sites and fill in the rest through TPM's overview of polling results.)

• Moreover, the states [Hillary] would win [against McCain] and he wouldnt are bigger than the ones he would win and she wouldnt, so in the Electoral College she does a lot better than him according to this collection of polls. She would score a convincing victory against McCain, while Obama's stuck in a virtual tie. More about that in a minute, featuring maps.

Regardless of whether they believe McCain represents the status quo or change, the vast majority of voters want to see a break from the policies of the Bush administration. Roughly three-quarters either say a continuation of Bush's policies would be a bad thing (37%) or that a new direction for the country would be a good thing (36%). Very few say that a continuation of Bush policies would be a good thing (4%) or a different direction would be a bad thing (4%).

Even among Republicans, more than half say McCain represents change and this is a good thing. Only 6% say McCain representing change is a bad thing. Similarly only 10% of GOP voters say McCain continuing Bush's policies would be a good thing.

Here's a May 24th, 2004 electoral vote map based upon polling.



In short, current polling means very little when it comes to predicting the outcome of the election.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Here's a May 24th, 2004 electoral vote map based upon polling.



In short, current polling means very little when it comes to predicting the outcome of the election.

Actually, that map didnt do half bad in predicting the outcome. There's a reason they marked a number of states as "barely Kerry" or "barely Bush" - it's because they could flip any moment. That's the whole point. And as it happens, all but one of the states (New Mexico, which ended up all but a tie) that they marked more seriously for one candidate or the other, even just "weakly", voted the way they'd mapped it.

If anything, this map shows that polling, even this far in advance, can give you a pretty good sense of what states are relatively safe for either camp and what states are in play. Of course it's foolish to look at the exact topline numbers, especially this far out ahead, basic knowledge of polling tells you to take that with a grain of salt. But polling is to outline trends, to outline where there's space, where the opportunities are, what the advantages of one candidate or the other are by region or constituency. This 2004 map did that pretty correctly, and I think you can take a fair bet that the maps showing where Obama's and Hillary's respective advantages are against McCain are telling as well.

Whew, sorry; I worded my last post wrong.

Of course it's foolish to look at the exact topline numbers, especially this far out ahead, basic knowledge of polling tells you to take that with a grain of salt.

Energizer Bill

Say what you will about Bill Clinton, he's not half-assing the home stretch. His latest schedule:

President Clinton will return to South Dakota on Friday, May 30, attending "Solutions for America" events in Spearfish, Mitchell, and Vermillion. President Clinton will continue campaigning for Hillary on Saturday, May 31 in Elk Point, Canton, Dell Rapids, Flandreau, and Madison. Chelsea Clinton will join him in Dell Rapids. President Bill Clinton will return to Montana this Sunday, June 1, attending campaign events in Stevensville, Anaconda, Great Falls, and Helena. On Monday, June 2, President Clinton will attend campaign events in Watertown, Milbank, Sisseton, Webster, Aberdeen, and Sioux Falls. Additional details TBA.

That's eighteen events in four days. And he's not even the candidate.

Obama spent a day in South Dakota, talking about his rural policies in a dirt-floored building in Watertown and drawing a huge crowd in Sioux Falls. He planned another visit this weekend.

Clinton has been a more frequent visitor, holding rallies in cities large and small as she focused on farm policy, the economy and health care. With a week to go, Clinton's campaign announced that either she, her husband, the former president, or their daughter, Chelsea, would be in South Dakota every day until the primary.

The voters of South Dakota look a lot like those who have favored Hillary Rodham Clinton in presidential primaries this year [..] South Dakota's demographics appear to favor her.

[..] South Dakota is overwhelmingly rural with corn and soybeans in the east and rolling cattle ranches and the Black Hills in the west. The state is 88 percent white, consistently ranks last in the nation in annual average wages and has the eighth-largest percentage of residents older than 65. Clinton has handily won states with electorates like this, most recently Kentucky and West Virginia.

American Indians make up South Dakota's largest minority group, more than 8 percent of the population, and traditionally vote for Democrats. Both candidates have issued detailed plans for economic development, improved health care and education for reservations, which have staggeringly high unemployment rates.

Before Obama appeared at a Sioux Falls rally, he met privately with leaders from all Lakota Sioux tribes in South Dakota.

Both Clinton and her husband have spent a lot of time campaigning on reservations. Clinton could benefit from her husband's visit to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in 1999 when he was president.

"The Clinton name is known on South Dakota reservations. I would suspect she may very well have an edge there," Smith said.

[..] but her rival, front-runner Barack Obama, has plenty of friends in high places in this rural state. [M]ost Democrats who've won statewide elections, past and present, in predominantly Republican South Dakota have endorsed Obama.

These include former Sens. George McGovern, himself the Democratic presidential nominee in 1972, and Tom Daschle, the ex-Senate majority leader, and both Democrats now in Congress, Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. [..]

Obama ads featuring Daschle described Obama as coming from a family of modest means with "the same values as most South Dakotans." [..] Daschle, who dominated the Democratic Party in the state for more than two decades, was an early Obama supporter, and many former Daschle staffers now work for Obama in South Dakota. [..]

Obama has been endorsed by six of South Dakota's seven superdelegates. McGovern, who is not a superdelegate, switched his endorsement from Clinton to Obama in early May and said she should drop out because she had virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

In addition, the Illinois senator has used his substantial fundraising edge over Clinton to field a larger ground organization in this sparsely populated state [..]. Smith and Burns, the political science professors, said endorsements and organization could give Obama the edge.

Obama opened nine campaign offices around the state; Clinton, six.

Rick Hauffe, South Dakota Democratic Party executive director, marveled at the size of Obama's campaign staff. "They are muscling it. They are working it hard." [..]

Smith said Clinton may be able to catch up, but Obama seems to have more "troops on the ground."

"I think the experienced politicians and the experienced networks are on the Obama team, and that could very well make a difference," Smith said.

The role race will play in South Dakota's primary is uncertain, Smith said. Blacks make up slightly more than 1 percent of the population.

"Most South Dakotans would be very proud to say they're not racially discriminatory in any way. Whether that's true or not, we really don't know," Smith said. "We haven't had a significant African-American presence in this state, nor have we seen African-Americans run for higher office here. So it's still impossible to know."

Large majorities of Democrats and independents, and even half of Republicans, believe the president of the United States should meet with the leaders of countries that are considered enemies of the United States. Overall, 67% of Americans say this kind of diplomacy is a good idea.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 49% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally. This is the last day Rasmussen Reports will track this race. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 94.4 % chance of winning the nomination. If anything happens to change the dynamic and make Senator Clinton the Democratic nominee, it will be an event beyond polling. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Democratic voters in South Dakota and Montana will cast the final primary votes today. Obama has won a majority of the pledged delegates, but still needs some superdelegate support in the coming days to clinch the nomination. There is some speculation that enough superdelegates will publicly endorse Obama within the next 24 hours to put him over the top.

Clinton's only hope beyond a floor fight at the convention is to get the vast majority of superdelegates to back her. She is attempting to persuade them by arguing she has won more total votes in the primaries and caucuses than Obama has. This is a matter of some dispute, as different estimates have Obama or Clinton as the leader depending on assumptions about which states are included and how to count caucus results in states that do not report overall candidate support totals.

One other measure that could sway superdelegates is national support for the candidates. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data, involving interviews with random samples of Democrats nationwide, has shown that Obama has consistently held leads close to double-digits in recent weeks. If there were a national primary today to select the Democrats' nominee, Obama would almost certainly prevail.

Another argument the Clinton campaign is using to persuade superdelegates is that she would be the stronger candidate versus Republican John McCain in the fall election. While Gallup's tracking of registered voters' general election preferences has supported this claim at times, presently the two Democrats are both locked in statistical dead heats with McCain, with Clinton up by one percentage point (46% to 45%) and Obama down by one point (46% to 45%).