This is interesting, though I don't know how authoritative ("a reader" at the Daily Dish):
Quote: As you watch results come in, important to know this:
Indiana has 72 delegates...47 will be decided by results in congressional districts. There are 9 congressional districts.
In congressional districts 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9 there are 6 delegates each. These delegates will be split 3-3 -- you need to win 58 percent or higher in order to get a 4-2 split. So that means all Obama has to do is hold Hillary to 58 percent or lower in each district and they split. Which means he stays ahead.
(Cong district 1 is Lake County up near Chicago, 2 is the South Bend area, 7 is Indianapolis, 8 is the SW quandrant and 9 is the SE quandrant.)
Districts 3 (North Central Indiana), 4 (West Central) -- both strong Hillary areas -- and 5 (Eastern and Northern suburbs of Indianapolis (a tossup) have four delegates each. These delegates are also split 2-2. In these districts, in order to get a 3-1 split, the winner has to get 65% or higher! So Obama's task is even easier/Hillary's task is even more difficult there.
District 6 (Eastern edge of state...Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, also suburbs of Fort Wayne and Cincinatti) has 5 delegates. Winner there gets 3 out of 5. That is a district to watch tonight because it can be a tie-breaker.
The other 254 delegates are mayors and other elected party officials who go the way of their districts, and of course the superdelegates.
So far Clinton and Obama have pretty much split them -- but the good news for Obama is, of the three remaining undecided superdelegates, rumor has it all three are eager to go with Obama if given even the slightest excuse.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/indiana-things.html
Lots of talk about how much the "Limbaugh effect" has helped Hillary. If Hillaqry does win Indiana, it will be interesting to hear Rush crow about it tomorrow.
Hhmmm... look at this - from the exit polls as online at MSNBC now (subject to change, etc):
Did either of these candidates for president attack the other unfairly?
INDIANA
64% Hillary Clinton did
33% Hillary Clinton did not
44% Barack Obama did
53% Barack Obama did not
NORTH CAROLINA
67% Hillary Clinton did
30% Hillary Clinton did not
40% Barack Obama did
56% Barack Obama did not
Roxxxanne wrote:Lots of talk about how much the "Limbaugh effect" has helped Hillary. If Hillaqry does win Indiana, it will be interesting to hear Rush crow about it tomorrow.
Hhmm, well, according to the exit polls right now (subject to change, etc), Republicans made up 11% of the Dem primary voters in Indiana - which is indeed a fair bit; but they only went 53% to 45% to Clinton over Obama. An 8-point margin among a constituency that's 11% of the electorate -- that doesnt amount to much. Maybe added 1% to Hillary's margin.
Course it could be that such Limbaugh voters lied to the exit pollsters about their party affinity. But does that make sense, wouldnt they rather want everyone to know how much of an effect they, Limbaugh Republicans, succeeded in having?
Found an encouraging detail from Indiana:
This afternoon, a commenter on Cogitamus wrote that "Fort Wayne is probably going to go for Obama --- he's got a lot of people on the ground here, at least in the area I live in". But Nicholas Beaudrot, an ueber-number cruncher I admire, responded:
Quote:n Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, Obama won very few towns/cities with fewer than 500,000 people. E.G. he won Dayton, Cincy, Cleveland, and Columbus, but not Toledo, or any of the other modest sized towns (Akron, Canton, Youngstown, etc.). I'm betting against him in Ft Wayne despite the effort.
Well, whaddaya know: with 93% of precincts reporting, Obama is ahead in the county of Allen, which has got Ft Wayne, by 55% to 45%
As much as I am resigned that Hillary will eke out Indiana, the jury is still out as the African-AMerican precincts are late coming in.
Right now,Hillary up by 8% in the raw vote.
More interesting (and encouraging!) stuff: there appears to be no gender gap of note this time. And that's pretty stunning, considering the yawning gender gaps we'd gotten used to these primaries.
Quote: Schneider: Gender politics take a backseat
Posted: 08:37 PM ET
(CNN) - Gender gap? What gender gap?
Indiana's Democratic primary vote was not dramatically divided along gender lines. Men split their votes almost evenly between Clinton and Obama, 51 to 49 percent. Women still gave the edge to Hillary Clinton - but by only six points, 53 to 47 percent.
There was little sign of a split between the sexes in North Carolina either: 57 percent of the state's men cast their votes for Barack Obama - but so did 54 percent of women voters.
Chuck Todd says Indiana is in play for the Dems in November. HUGE turnout!
It appears to me that the Gary area has not reported yet. Is that significant?
The North Carolina State Board of Elections
has a great site with incoming election results. Maps, even per county, breakdowns of the vote by early voting and election day voting, the lot. Compliments.
This is what the state-wide map for Clinton vs Obama looks like right now, but of course only something like a third of counties have completely reported.
realjohnboy wrote:It appears to me that the Gary area has not reported yet. Is that significant?
Yep. I was just reading about that. Here,
on the CCPS blog of its research director, Brian Schaffner:
Quote:9:25PM: Here is why Indiana is now too CLOSE to call:
Monroe County (Bloomington) is only 10% in.
Marion County (Indianapolis) still has about 1/4 of the vote not in.
Hamilton County (Wealthy suburbs of Indianapolis) is only 1/3 in.
Lake and LaPorte Counties (Chicago area) are reporting nothing.
These should all be Obama areas. Clinton is up by less than 50k votes now. Are there enough votes for him in these counties? Quite possibly.
And now:
Quote:9:55PM: Evidently Lake County will begin reporting at 10pm. That county is going to decide Indiana.
Lake County has Gary in it.
Gary, Indiana!
What a wonderful name,
Named for Elbert Gary of judiciary fame.
Gary, Indiana, as a Shakespeare would say,
Trips along softly on the tongue this way--
Gary, Indiana, Gary Indiana, Gary, Indiana,
Let me say it once again.
Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana,
That's the town that "knew me when."
If you'd like to have a logical explanation
How I happened on this elegant syncopation,
I will say without a moment of hesitation
There is just one place
That can light my face.
Gary, Indiana,
Gary Indiana,
Not Louisiana, Paris, France, New York, or Rome, but--
Gary, Indiana,
Gary, Indiana,
Gary Indiana,
Thanks for the little interlude there, Rox, from The Music Man. Gary is hard up against Chicago and IL which may help Obama a bit. But Gary is a dying mill town, a gritty place. That may help Clinton.
Obama is 40,000 behind in raw vote right now so...
Lannie Davis: Obama can't win "our base" Has he forgotten about the most loyal constituency in the Democratic Party?
At FiveThirtyEight.com, about the endgame in Indiana's ballot counting:
Quote:8:52 PM. I'm now showing Clinton winning Indiana by 1.8 percent, or about 23,000 votes. And one thing to remember about Indiana is the provisional ballot issue -- people who were rejected at the polls because they did not meet the state's ID requirements could still cast provisional ballots and prove their identity later. It's possible that we'll still have a hanging chads type of situation.
9:28 PM. Clinton's numbers ticking upward a bit on stronger-than-expected results in Clark and Gibson Counties. We now show her winning Indiana by 2.1 points and about 27,500 votes. Obama needs to hope that the outstanding precincts in Marion County contain a lot of ballots, and hope for both a big turnout and a substantial margin (+15-20 points) in Lake County. It's a bit of a longshot parlay, but if the network's models look anything look anything like mine, the CBS call of Indiana remains premature.
Previous notes there on other interesting subjects:
Quote:6:16 PM. Obama is overperforming our projections in Northern Indiana, and Clinton in the Southern part of Indiana. Which could mean that our projections stunk, that the Bubba Gap is widening, that there are some home-state effects for Obama in Northern Indiana, or any of the above. [..]
7:03 PM. It looks to me like turnout in Indiana is going to be around 1.1 to 1.2 million, blowing away almost everyone's expectations. Turnout in Marion County (Indianapolis) actually is coming in ahead of my projections, but that's also true for almost every region in the state. [..]
8:01 PM. My projection for Indiana is continuing to tick down a bit as Obama's margins are coming in better than expected in Marion County.
realjohnboy wrote:Gary is hard up against Chicago and IL which may help Obama a bit. But Gary is a dying mill town, a gritty place. That may help Clinton.
But Gary is almost completely black, according to
this wonderful interactive and zoomable population map on Census 2000 data. And Obama won the black vote in Indiana by 92%, according to the exit poll data up now.
Lake County as a whole seems about two/thirds white though. Still, racially its comparable to Marion County (Indianapolis), where Obama got 67% of the vote.
Hey, you cant be right every time!
