Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

The New York Times' blog The Caucus has a nice region-by-region overview of Pennsylvania, to help you understand what you're looking at when the numbers come rolling in.

It describes who is expected to do well, where:


What to Watch When You Are Watching the Pa. Returns

Aside from the region-by-region overview, the article has some other practical nibbles. For example, contrary to all logic and precedence, it's the bigger cities that are expected to come in relatively early, and the rural counties to come in last:


No idea what to make of that.

And dont expect the delegates picture to be clear before some time tomorrow...

Doesn't all this "Black vote", "Women Vote", thing polarise opinion on racial and gender lines?

If 80% of blacks vote Obama a black might think "hey up, I had better vote for Obama". And a white might think "are these blacks ganging up on us? on some curved ball, a beamer here, I can't understand?"

If 80% of women vote for the gutsy broad women might think "hey up, I had better vote for this carrier of the torch of Women's Lib and Feminism. And a bloke might think "are these gutsy broads ganging up on us? on some curved ball, beyond our control, I can't understand?"

By November there's a choice. Every black votes Obama, if he is selected to fight the Democrat's cause, whatever that is, and every white votes for the aging war hero with the uppity wife. OR, Every woman votes for the gutsy broad, if she is selected to fight the Democrat's cause, and every bloke votes for the aging war hero. (Except the henpecked husbands).

It's pure demographics. Differential breeding rates in the black/white case and intelligent design in the bloke/gutsy broad case.

The first (unreliable) exit polls have Clinton up 52-48

Obama goes off-message in advance of the results:


Eh - not smart. Soz, go tell him off about managing expectations.

That is the critical part of the race of course. Not the popular vote. Because of the way delegates are allocated, Obama could do very well, perhaps winning 3 out of every 5.
I am predicting Clinton by 9% in the popular vote.

What reporting services are yall watching tonight?

(Note to Howard Dean. Don't ever have a six week break between primaries again).

Really!

Yeah.. After I trumpeted early exit poll data here several times before this season only to see them change drastically an hour or two after the polls closed, I hardly dare to mention 'em anymore...

but yes, there's more descriptions of early exit poll data on CNN, for example. Article says 60% of newly registered Democrats (new voters or switchers) went for Obama. But about as large a share of those who only made up their mind in the last week went for Hillary.

It says a whopping 92% of African-Americans voted Obama. I have trouble believing that. He's only done that well among blacks in Illinois, his home state, and Mississippi, down in the Deep South.

It also says Clinton is getting 55% of white males, and 61% of those over 65, which is roughly what you'd expect I suppose. (That SUSA poll that had Hillary up by 6 in total had her with 62% of the over-65 vote).

I'm watching CNN right now... (to reply to RJB's question). A while ago they had Jessica Yellin on saying that there were some serious voting irregularities in, of course, Philadelphia. Broken voting machines, not enough paper ballots, endless lines, people leaving because they had to get to work. She says that's been reported by some watchdog organization that brought a suit to keep the polls open late, and that the suit was thrown out.

But then she says that the official line is that everything went smoothly.

So I don't know what's up with that.

52-48 would rock. (Not that I believe it -- I remember early exit poll painfulness. Just that it would rock if it happens.)


Oh also on CNN Donna Brazile just said she's made up her mind but she won't say so yet -- "by July 4th." She said her mind's made up but her heart's a bit conflicted, and typically mind = Hillary, heart = Obama, but maybe the heart thing is because of the woman aspect and that she's been associated with the Clintons? (Was she? Gore yes but I can't remember about the Clintons.)

"Gov. Ed Rendell, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's de facto campaign manager in Pennsylvania, is on MSNBC right now, saying she'll win by 7 or 8 points."

(NYT The Caucus)

7 or 8!

That'd also rock.

(So I'm easy to please...)

He doesn't know anything we don't and he is probably just spinning anyway...6 minutes....I am hoping that the first "call" is too close to call....or a call that Obama won it...

Four minutes

Gee! You're just a bunch of TV freaks.

I hope you know that it is just a way of sitting on your backside eating out of crispy packets thinking you are doing something of great significance.

Hey, have you seen this neat little gadget on the homepage of the NYT site?





Slide the ruler to point at how much per cent of the vote you expect Hillary to win in the remaining primaries, and the number below will show you how much per cent of the uncommitted superdelegates Hillary would then need to persuade in order to win.

I bet Camp Hillary is not pleased with gadgets like this appearing so prominently - the numbers are pretty devastating for her.

Political junkie among other things...

Mostly I'm thinking, damn, and I got a truck load of things to do for work... so it's more like playing hookie

Plus, it's cashews..

No call from CNN!!

"Competitive race"

YES!!!!!!!!!!!

Lowering the bar a bit so that if she wins by 9 or so they can claim a big victory.

Too close to call