Obama Targets Clinton Supporters Along Philadelphia 'Main Line'
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama probably hasn't given much thought to Philadelphia's railroad system. It could be his map to holding back Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, the next big prize in the Democratic presidential race.
Built in the 1880s, the "Main Line'' railroad to the west of Philadelphia relocated the city's political and business elite, creating some of the nation's most affluent suburbs. Today, towns like Ardmore and Haverford remain upscale enclaves. They are also trending Democratic.
These politically progressive suburbs distinguish Pennsylvania from Ohio and could give Obama a chance to do better than the drubbing he took in the Buckeye state's contest March 4. Upper-income Democrats are among the Illinois senator's strongest supporters, so if he doesn't do well on the Main Line and adjoining Bucks County in the April 22 primary, New York Senator Clinton is likely to replicate her Ohio triumph.
"The Philadelphia suburbs will be a real battleground,'' said Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster.
James Carville, Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign manager, once described Pennsylvania as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between,'' underscoring the conservatism of the middle sections of the state where Hillary Clinton, 60, is strongest.
Obama Projection
A Feb. 6 Obama planning document, obtained by Bloomberg News, shows the importance of the suburbs for his campaign. It projects Clinton winning the state, with Obama, 46, carrying Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and losing everything in between. Under this projection, the key to Clinton's victory margin would be a seven-to-10 percentage-point win in the Philadelphia suburbs.
If instead Obama carried or ran even in these suburbs, Clinton would be denied a big win.
Recent contested Democratic primaries demonstrate the importance of these suburban areas, which could account for 20 percent of the vote.
In 2002, Governor Ed Rendell won the state 56 to 43 percent even though he lost Pittsburgh and major southwestern and northeastern counties to Bob Casey, then the state's auditor general. Rendell won by huge margins in Philadelphia and its surrounding counties. Obama has hired the field operation Rendell used for both his gubernatorial elections, Rendell said last week.
Voters such as Ruth Hirshey Lincoln, a public-relations consultant in Lower Merion Township, will decide whether Obama can slow Clinton's momentum.
Hirshey Lincoln is torn between the two candidates.
`Willing to Listen'
"As a woman I feel a loyalty'' to Clinton, said Hirshey Lincoln, who pushed a shopping cart into an organic supermarket in Suburban Square, a shopping mall near a major Main Line stop. Yet, she said, ``I'm more willing to listen to him than I've ever been.''
Clinton has a sizable lead over Obama in most of Pennsylvania, particularly among the state's large elderly population. In the southeastern part of the state that includes the Main Line, though, she leads him by just two points, according to a Survey USA poll last week.
The Philadelphia suburbs are "going to be a hard-fought, heavily contested part of the state,'' said Mark Nevins, Clinton's Pennsylvania spokesman.
Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson said the Obama campaign has "clearly downplayed the importance of Pennsylvania'' because she is poised to win.
'Steep Hill'
Wolfson pointed to a March 12 memo in which Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said "Pennsylvania is only one of 10 remaining contests.'' On March 13, Obama himself called the state's primary a "steep hill to climb.''
Obama is counting on an all-out effort before the state's March 24 registration deadline to enlist college students, a sizable group in the area, which includes Philadelphia-based Temple University, Villanova-based Villanova University, Haverford College in Haverford and Radnor-based Cabrini College.
"What's throwing a monkey wrench in all this analysis is the number of young voters in this state,'' said Abe Amoros, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party's executive director. "The 18-30 vote is going to be critical.''
There have been 65,000 new Democratic registrations statewide since last fall, including young voters and Republicans and independents switching their affiliation to Democrat.
That's "unheard of in the history of Pennsylvania,'' Amoros said. The biggest registration gains were in three Main Line Philadelphia counties Obama is targeting: Chester, Delaware and Montgomery, which includes lower Merion Township.
Better Economy
While most of Pennsylvania resembles Ohio's blue-collar Rust Belt economy, the Philadelphia suburbs are faring much better.
In Lower Merion Township, the median income is $86,373, more than double the national figure of $41,994, according to the 2000 Census. Many Philadelphia suburbanites are white-collar workers more concerned about the Iraq War and international affairs than about losing their jobs.
Rick Loomis, a 54-year-old financial planner from Penn Valley in Lower Merion Township, said his top concerns are a candidate's leadership qualities, diplomacy and civil liberties, and national security; he didn't mention economic anxieties.
Jerry Francis, president of the Lower Merion Historical Society, said the Philadelphia suburbs, once a Republican stronghold, are now trending Democratic because of migration from the city by Jewish, Catholic and other white ethnic groups.
"Over time, the population grew and most of the Republicans moved west and are being replaced by a more liberal population,'' Francis said.
