nimh wrote:O'Bill is right - the polls have been showing Obama surging in NH for some time, and were clearly heading towards an Obama lead. So the prediction isnt a great surprise. But nevertheless I would have been too careful, since the most recent polls (from the last half a month or so) actually showed Obama's rise levelling off again and Hillary stabilising. (This doesnt show up in the more cautious Pollster graphs, but does in my graph of half-a-month averages, which I'll post later today).
Here we are:
This was the state of the New Hampshire polls as of the end of December. The end point of the graph represents the average of the 10 polls that appeared in the second half of the month.
As you can see, Obama's rise in the polls appeared to level off, and Hillary's steady drop to stabilise, just short of where he would have caught up with her. (This graph differs from the Pollster.com one, which is more impervious to the short-term trends that might just be statistical noise.)
(CORRECTION: After a latest update taking a couple of polls that were completed on 3 January into account, pollster.com's trendlines
now also show up the same pattern - since they are regressive, they are adjusted retroactively.)
So what now?
Expect the Obama trend to resume its rise up, and quite sharply so; and the Hillary trend to start dropping again, perhaps less sharply.
Biden voters, and I think Richardson voters largely too, will now transfer to one of the frontrunners. Anecdotal evidence like the snippet above suggests that they will perhaps move to Edwards or, more likely with the momentum he's now got going on, to Obama. The Richardson/Obama pact should help speed that along.
Edwards, dunno. He actually did very well in the Iowa caucuses, doing better than where the polls had him at for a long time, and better than any pundit was expecting until just a few days before. So if the world were fair, he would actually get a bump in NH for that. But in a winner-takes-all society ("Two is not a winner and three nobody remembers"), coming in second means you've lost, so you'd expect his numbers in NH to sharply drop off now.
Even if they do, however, I have no clue where his voters will go. Hell, I'd be an Edwards voter, and I wouldnt know whether to turn to Obama or Hillary now. There is this impression of the Obama and Edwards supporters forming some kind of anti-Hillary coalition, and when it comes to their voices in the blogs, then that has mostly been true. But for regular voters?
It'd be interesting to dig up the numbers from more polls, but one poll from New Hampshire
I came across a month or two ago asked the supporters of each candidate who their second choice would be, and Edwards voters actually were twice as likely to switch to Clinton as to Obama.
That was then, though, and this is now. Hillary doesnt look a particularly attractive choice right now, does she? So that dynamic might well have changed.
I sure hope that's directed at Snood. (If not; read our exchange, and see why it should be. I have no idea what the hell snapped in his head.)
I can hardly wait for the debates tonight.
