Let me begin by suggesting that a third party will only arise now in two realistic circumstances; the religious right get even crazier than they are now and seriously damage the republican party for the forseeable future through breaking away. I hope they are that crazy, but the republican party strategists know the danger and have their hooks into this community in order to stave off this possible outcome. It's unlikely.
The other realistic circumstance is a rich egomaniac. We've seen what Romney has been able to achieve with his own money, likewise Ross Perot, likewise Steve Forbes.
I'm close to certain that Ron Paul won't run as an independent. He hasn't and isn't holding open that possibility and though his donors may hope he might, he's not stringing them along. He's a principled fellow, in my estimation, and I think his speech is probably as close to his actual thoughts as anyone running.
But if he did, the last person one would want to trust on outcome is Podhoretz. Like his dad, he's a propagandist first and foremost. He surmises that much of Paul's support comes from dems. No evidence of any sort is advanced. But I've been down in Texas and talked to ardent Paul supporters there. They were all abused ex-bush voters who one could identify most closely with the John Birch tradition...anti-jew, anti-UN, anti-international bankers, anti-immigrant. Many, if not most, were ardent fundamentalist christians. He would draw votes from this community and they aren't dems.
As I think this won't happen, I'll leave off discussing what I think the consequences would be.
Jonathan Alter is a writer (newsweek) who I like a lot. He does his homework and is careful and nuanced in his writing and commentary. He threw me for a jolt two weeks ago when he said that his sources have said that Bloomberg is more serious about such an effort than people suspect. He might have this wrong, of course, but I'm no longer certain Bloomberg is out.
In another piece I read from Alter months ago, he stated what seems obvious...that regardless of his money, Bloomberg wouldn't win. In another piece, Alter forwards the idea that Murdoch personally favors Bloomberg even if Ailes is pushing Rudy's candidacy with all the tools at his disposal...
http://www.newsweek.com/id/70998/page/2
The problem for us is that Bloomberg would market himself as a tough, fiscally conservative, experienced right-leaning liberal. That would hurt us to the point of a loss, I think.