Oz election thread #3 - Rudd's Labour

The Taliban REALLY suck.

Yes, yes, I know....no western nation that has decided to invade Afghanistan has ever achieved what it wanted, and has fallen into a long bloody morass which seems to leave things worse than ever.


Sigh.

Malalai Joya spent much of her childhood in refugee camps in Iran and Pakistan, before returning to Afghanistan in the 1990s, working to promote women's health and education. Joya was elected to parliament, has survived assassination attempts, travels with a bodyguard, but may stand again at the August election. A secular Muslim, she's a critic of fundamentalists in the Taliban and the northern alliance and says her country needs to find its own way to democracy without military intervention. ... <cont>

Just 26 per cent say they're satisfied with Mr Turnbull's performance, a drop of seven percent on July's figures.

Two-party preferred support stayed steady, with Labor leading the Coalition 57 to 43 per cent.

Satisfaction with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's performance fell slightly in the past two weeks, from 63 to 60 per cent.

Dissatisfaction increased from 26 to 28 per cent.

However, Mr Rudd maintained a huge lead over Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister, 65 to 17 points.

The result is added pressure on Mr Turnbull as he prepares to address a divided party tomorrow morning before parliament resumes.

The Government will re-introduce the scheme before the end of the year and will have to negotiate with either the Coalition or crossbench senators to get the legislation passed.

The Opposition will be proposing amendments in the coming months and leader Malcolm Turnbull says a second vote should be delayed until after international climate change talks late this year.

"Why won't the Government make the commonsense decision to defer the final design until after the Copenhagen conference in December?" he said.

Mr Rudd said the Coalition's actions represented a "disappointing day for Australia".

"Today the Liberal Party of Australia is beholden to the climate change sceptics. Today they are absolutely demonstrating themselves as being prisoners of the past, prisoners of their own internal party disunity," he said.

"They are therefore placing the nation's future at risk.

"Rather than marking this day as one where the nation grasps its future, those opposite have chosen instead to consign Australia to the past."

Treasurer Wayne Swan also weighed in, accusing the Opposition of voting against "certainty, confidence and jobs".

Obscene gesture

There were also fiery scenes in the Senate during debate on the scheme.

Amid shouting from both sides and demands that Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan apologise for "making an obscene gesture", Climate Change Minister Senator Penny Wong vowed to re-introduce the scheme this year.

"Whilst those on the other side want to continue to deny that climate change is real and continue to be divided on this issue, we are firm in our resolve to do the right thing," she said.

Coal Association executive director Ralph Hillman says the delay will give the industry more time to negotiate on better protection.

"There are major competitiveness issues for the coal industry that need to be addressed," he said.

The Government is offering $750 million in compensation for the sector, but the industry is pushing for more

In a strongly worded introductory speech - part of which has been obtained by The Sunday Age - Mr Jordan warned: ''Complacency is death in politics.''

He told the chiefs of staff that it was difficult to see Mr Turnbull remaining leader of the Liberal Party at the next election and to prepare to fight Joe Hockey or Tony Abbott, both more popular alternatives.

''He will dig in - all Opposition leaders do,'' Mr Jordan said.

''But Mr Turnbull's judgment and authority have been shot to pieces through his response to the global recession, a messy response on climate change and, of course, the fake email affair.

''We must approach our election planning on the basis that there's a very real possibility Mr Hockey or Mr Abbott will be leading the Opposition.''

It is believed Labor is now moving into a new, more aggressive phase in preparing for the next election, with an early poll still a possibility.

Labor also wants to exert maximum pressure on Mr Turnbull following his refusal to support the Government's emissions trading legislation and has been keen to keep public debate focused on internal divisions in the Liberal Party.

However, most Liberals still believe Mr Turnbull - who has been attempting to steer the debate back towards policy issues - remains the only viable alternative to lead the party.

Despite Labor's huge lead in public opinion polls, Mr Jordan said winning the next election would be ''very, very tough''.

''If we underestimate our opponents, we might as well pack up our bags and go home.''

Labor believes that both Mr Hockey, who has signalled he is not interested in becoming Opposition leader, and Mr Abbott, who recently released a conservative political treatise, would be viewed by the electorate as better alternatives than Mr Turnbull.

Liberal strategists remain deeply concerned about the prospect of an early election, warning that Labor could be in a position to ''lop the head off the future leadership class'' of the Liberal Party by winning a range of key marginal seats around the country.

Mr Turnbull says Mr Rudd is still aiming to take Australia to an early poll before a budget that would contain tough and unpopular decisions.

The Opposition says it believes the Government wants to go to an early poll before next year's tough Budget.

Australia's seen six double dissolution elections since federation; the last was more than 20 years ago.

Constitutional law expert George Williams says it is a real possibility that Kevin Rudd will go to an early poll.

"There were two in the 1980s, in '87 and '83, but none since that time. So if we do have a double dissolution election in this cycle it will be the first in some time," he said.

"The double dissolution mechanism is there to be used, and indeed, it's expected that it will be used if it also suits the political interests of the Government."

Mr Rudd says he wants his emissions trading bill passed, rather than an early poll.

But he has not ruled out an early election - and based on recent opinion polling, he would easily win.

No resentment

Constitutional expert David Flint says he does not think the Australian people would resent an early vote.

"I think that people can distinguish between a double dissolution and a Government which just goes early for the hang of it," he said.

"I think where there's a double dissolution and there is an understanding that this is significant, as I would think that they would feel about the ETS, then I don't think that they would vent their anger on the Rudd Government for going early."

A double dissolution election would need to be called before August next year when a poll will be due anyway....<cont>