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Thomas Friedman: Debating Iraq’s Transition

 
 
Reply Sat 24 Nov, 2007 09:37 am
Debating Iraq's Transition
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
New York Times Op-Ed Columnist
Published: November 21, 2007

Watching Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice making repeated trips to Israel to try to broker some kind of deal between Israelis and Palestinians, while Iraq remains politically unresolved, leaves me feeling like my house is burning down and the fire department has decided to stop along the way to get two cats out of a tree.

At one level, I just don't get it. It's clear that the surge by U.S. troops has really dampened violence in Iraq. So don't we now need a surge in diplomacy to finish the job?

It often feels to me as if Secretary Rice just wants to keep Iraq at arm's length and hope that it will somehow end up on someone else's report card.

If you were President Bush and your whole legacy was riding on the outcome of this war, wouldn't you be sending your top diplomat to Baghdad to work with Iraqis and their neighbors to broker a political settlement and not let them grow complacent that they have an open-ended commitment from the American people?

(It makes you glad Democrats are still banging their drum.)

But then I talk to people in Baghdad and look at what is really evolving there and I say to myself: "Maybe you're missing something that Secretary Rice knows ?- that there isn't going to be any formal political reconciliation moment in Iraq, grand bargain or White House signing ceremony. The surge has made Iraq safe, not for formal political reconciliation yet, but safe for an ?'A.T.M. peace.' "

That is, each of the Iraqi factions basically agrees to live and let live with the new lines drawn by the last two years of civil war and the Baghdad government serves as an A.T.M. cash machine ?- supporting the army and local security groups and dispensing oil revenues to the provincial governors and tribal chiefs from each community.

Sure, the Shiites haven't passed a law to let more Sunni Baathists into the government, but they're still letting some back. Yes, they haven't passed an oil law, but the government is still spreading around the cash.

Michael Gordon, The Times's top military expert, whose history of the Iraq war, "Cobra II," is one of the best books on the subject, said the phrase circulating in the military lately to describe the situation evolving in Iraq is "accommodation without reconciliation." The various parties basically accept the new imbalance of power ?- Shiites on top, but allowing the Kurds and Sunnis to have a share ?- and the political struggle continues with lower levels of violence.

It isn't irreversible. That only happens when refugees start returning in large numbers, because they see a flourishing economy, a government delivering services equitably and reliably, political alliances developing across Sunni-Shiite lines and security forces they can trust in their neighborhoods. We are still miles away from that, yet something seems to be moving.

And that brings me back to Secretary Rice. Is she just keeping away from the Iraq mess to save her image, or does she know that the Iraqi politicians will not and cannot seize this moment to reach a grand bargain, because making big public concessions to one another is still extremely dangerous in a country like Iraq. It is an invitation for assassination.

But maybe their own very Iraqi, very ad hoc, very oil-lubricated, modus vivendi can still get us somewhere stable and decent.

If that is the case, maybe the question we need to start asking is not: When do Iraqis reach a formal internal peace so we can go? But rather: Can the informal arrangements they're cobbling together reach a level of stability that would enable a major drawdown of U.S. forces next year?

I don't know. My Iraq crystal ball stopped working a long time ago. I'm taking this one step at a time.

Right now what is indisputable is that we are seeing the first crack in years in a wall of pessimism that has been the Iraq story. It is only a crack, but it creates new possibilities. It would be reckless to ignore or exaggerate.

You have to keep your mind open that something may be emerging from the ground up ?- and yet be wary. Are the parties really working something out, or are they just tired? Is Secretary Rice wisely letting the situation ripen or deftly running from the problem?

I have more questions right now than strong opinions.

So I went to a source I knew I could trust ?- my colleague James Glanz, The Times's Baghdad bureau chief who has lived through so much craziness there: "There is a sense of quiet on the streets that we have not seen for a long time in Baghdad," he told me, "but there is also a big question mark in the shadows of every alley. We don't know what is lurking back there, but we suspect, and evidence suggests, that it is the same set of problems that were always there."
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Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Nov, 2007 09:48 am
Amid mounting revelations of Bush administration lies concerning its reasons for going to war against Iraq, a chorus of media pundits has rallied to the president's defense by responding, "So what?"

These commentators argue that the "16 words" in the State of the Union address citing intelligence allegedly proving that Iraq tried to buy uranium in Africa were no big deal?-despite the fact that this bogus claim played a major role in the administration's attempt to terrorize the public with a nonexistent Iraqi nuclear threat. Or, they assert, the issue of government deception pales beside various ex post facto rationalizations for the war?-Saddam Hussein's repression, the "liberation" of the Iraqi people, etc.

One of the most repugnant examples of this second line of defense is to be found?-as it often is?-in the writings of the chief foreign columnist of the New York Times, Thomas Friedman. In a July 16 column entitled "Winning the Real War," Friedman hails the formation of an Iraqi "governing council," handpicked by the US colonial administrator L. Paul Bremer, as the real "liberation" of Iraq, and "the most important day in its modern history."

After chiding the media for failing to celebrate this supposed historical milestone, focusing instead on the unfolding controversy over Bush's lie about African uranium, Friedman writes: "... it is a disturbing thought that the Bush team could get itself so tied up defending its phony reasons for going to war?-the notion that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction that were undeterrable and could threaten us, or that he had links with Al Qaeda?-that it could get distracted from fulfilling the real and valid reason for the war: to install a decent, tolerant, pluralistic, multireligious government in Iraq..."

Friedman glibly acknowledges that Bush lied to the American people, but he sees nothing wrong with that. In essence, he is advising the White House to abandon yesterday's lies and concentrate on today's. Concede the false claims about weapons of mass destruction, and instead promote what is a brutal colonial occupation aimed at securing US control over strategic oil reserves as a crusade for "democracy" and "pluralism."

Never mind that the majority of the Iraqi people regard the new council in much the same way the Norwegians viewed the Quisling regime set up under Nazi occupation. Some 10,000 Iraqis poured into the streets of Najaf Sunday, confronting US Marines, demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and denouncing the council as a collection of "lackeys." Those participating were overwhelmingly Shiite, making it impossible for the US government and media to attribute the anti-American protest to remnants of the old regime or Baathist conspirators.

Acknowledging the popular hostility to Iraq's "liberators," Friedman responds with a modest proposal for another bloodbath: "These areas need to be reinvaded and then showered with reconstruction funds," he writes.

The World Socialist Web Site has frequently commented on Friedman, not because his columns marshal intellectual arguments that merit serious debate. Rather, he personifies the corruption of the mass media to the point where it functions as an enthusiastic accomplice in the criminal enterprises of US imperialism.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/jul2003/frie-j22.shtml
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Nov, 2007 01:28 pm
Spreading democracy : LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Published: WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2004
Thomas Friedman ("To gauge Iraq, listen to the troops," Views, Nov. 22) is misguided to believe that American troops are dying to "extend democracy" in Iraq and that "the American public schools still manage to produce young men and women ready to voluntarily risk their lives in places like Iraq and Afghanistan to spread the opportunity of freedom."

Democracy cannot be "extended." It has to grow from bottom up and takes a long time to mature. In addition, American public schools are known to be bad, which is why those who have the means tend to send their kids to private schools.

Young men and women go to places like Afghanistan and Iraq out of a misguided belief in patriotism and to be able to go to college. More importantly, many go out of ignorance of the real issues involved in a war.

*

Zeki Ergas, Geneva

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/12/01/edlet_ed3_.php
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Sun 25 Nov, 2007 03:20 pm
Re: Thomas Friedman: Debating Iraq's Transition
BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Debating Iraq's Transition
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
New York Times Op-Ed Columnist
Published: November 21, 2007

Watching Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice making repeated trips to Israel to try to broker some kind of deal between Israelis and Palestinians, while Iraq remains politically unresolved, leaves me feeling like my house is burning down and the fire department has decided to stop along the way to get two cats out of a tree.

At one level, I just don't get it. It's clear that the surge by U.S. troops has really dampened violence in Iraq. So don't we now need a surge in diplomacy to finish the job?

It often feels to me as if Secretary Rice just wants to keep Iraq at arm's length and hope that it will somehow end up on someone else's report card.

If you were President Bush and your whole legacy was riding on the outcome of this war, wouldn't you be sending your top diplomat to Baghdad to work with Iraqis and their neighbors to broker a political settlement and not let them grow complacent that they have an open-ended commitment from the American people?

(It makes you glad Democrats are still banging their drum.)

But then I talk to people in Baghdad and look at what is really evolving there and I say to myself: "Maybe you're missing something that Secretary Rice knows ?- that there isn't going to be any formal political reconciliation moment in Iraq, grand bargain or White House signing ceremony. The surge has made Iraq safe, not for formal political reconciliation yet, but safe for an ?'A.T.M. peace.' "

That is, each of the Iraqi factions basically agrees to live and let live with the new lines drawn by the last two years of civil war and the Baghdad government serves as an A.T.M. cash machine ?- supporting the army and local security groups and dispensing oil revenues to the provincial governors and tribal chiefs from each community.

Sure, the Shiites haven't passed a law to let more Sunni Baathists into the government, but they're still letting some back. Yes, they haven't passed an oil law, but the government is still spreading around the cash.

Michael Gordon, The Times's top military expert, whose history of the Iraq war, "Cobra II," is one of the best books on the subject, said the phrase circulating in the military lately to describe the situation evolving in Iraq is "accommodation without reconciliation." The various parties basically accept the new imbalance of power ?- Shiites on top, but allowing the Kurds and Sunnis to have a share ?- and the political struggle continues with lower levels of violence.

It isn't irreversible. That only happens when refugees start returning in large numbers, because they see a flourishing economy, a government delivering services equitably and reliably, political alliances developing across Sunni-Shiite lines and security forces they can trust in their neighborhoods. We are still miles away from that, yet something seems to be moving.

And that brings me back to Secretary Rice. Is she just keeping away from the Iraq mess to save her image, or does she know that the Iraqi politicians will not and cannot seize this moment to reach a grand bargain, because making big public concessions to one another is still extremely dangerous in a country like Iraq. It is an invitation for assassination.

But maybe their own very Iraqi, very ad hoc, very oil-lubricated, modus vivendi can still get us somewhere stable and decent.

If that is the case, maybe the question we need to start asking is not: When do Iraqis reach a formal internal peace so we can go? But rather: Can the informal arrangements they're cobbling together reach a level of stability that would enable a major drawdown of U.S. forces next year?

I don't know. My Iraq crystal ball stopped working a long time ago. I'm taking this one step at a time.

Right now what is indisputable is that we are seeing the first crack in years in a wall of pessimism that has been the Iraq story. It is only a crack, but it creates new possibilities. It would be reckless to ignore or exaggerate.

You have to keep your mind open that something may be emerging from the ground up ?- and yet be wary. Are the parties really working something out, or are they just tired? Is Secretary Rice wisely letting the situation ripen or deftly running from the problem?

I have more questions right now than strong opinions.

So I went to a source I knew I could trust ?- my colleague James Glanz, The Times's Baghdad bureau chief who has lived through so much craziness there: "There is a sense of quiet on the streets that we have not seen for a long time in Baghdad," he told me, "but there is also a big question mark in the shadows of every alley. We don't know what is lurking back there, but we suspect, and evidence suggests, that it is the same set of problems that were always there."

The editors must have cut the last line from Friedman's column. It read: "The next six months are critical. We'll know the answers then."
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Nov, 2007 10:39 am
Joe
Joe, thanks for the additional text.

BBB
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Nov, 2007 11:58 am
Re: Joe
BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Joe, thanks for the additional text.

BBB

Sorry. That was meant to be a joke.

Friedman Unit
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 26 Nov, 2007 12:01 pm
Re: Joe
joefromchicago wrote:
BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Joe, thanks for the additional text.
BBB

Sorry. That was meant to be a joke.
Friedman Unit


You rascal!

BBB Laughing
0 Replies
 
 

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