20
   

The Cairns Diaries

 
 
Eorl
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:10 am
@msolga,
It's now approaching the upper end of CAT 4 with winds of 260k.
If it hits 280K, it's a CAT 5.
It's expected to continue to intensify.
Also due to cross at 10PM, and hour after high tide.
Sorry, I have no good news. It just keeps getting worse.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:18 am
@Eorl,
Quote:
It just keeps getting worse.

It sure does! Shocked
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:40 am
It's kind of weird now. We've done all we can - and now we just wait. I may as well go to work tomorrow, it is a tad surreal having a normal life interrupted by scenes from Key Largo. Let me be boring again.

PS we only have a third of a gas bottle but everyone has run out, ice gone too. The guy in the bottle-o said the local servo had a bit of fisticuffs - massive (for Cairns) lines to get in. So Queenslanders aren't as laconic as their media reps say, apparently. Truly though, the 'real' locals were pretty laid back aka 'what's the point of panicking, the missus is doing that for me'.

So if the gas runs out... send salad! We're partial to balsamic vinegar, but no gluten Mr. Green
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:56 am
@hingehead,
You've forgotten the cat food!
And the dog food, hinge!
Quick, out for extra supplies!
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:17 am
@msolga,
No way - that was the first thing packed!
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:19 am
@hingehead,
You got your priorities right! Very Happy
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:36 am
These should auto-update. Stay safe, y'all!

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/sp201111_sat.jpg

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/sp201111.gif
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:51 am
@JPB,
Oh my.

Fingers crossed for all of you, hope updates can continue and that all is well as it can be.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:15 am
@sozobe,
Yeah, it's a dangerous situation.

From Jeff Masters at WU
Quote:
Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi bears down on flooded Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi continues to intensify as it speeds westwards towards vulnerable Queensland, Australia. Yasi, now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°C). The sea surface temperatures over the region of ocean Yasi is traversing (10S - 20S, 145E - 160E) were 1.2°C above average during December, the latest month we have data for from the UK Hadley Center. This is the highest value on record, going back to the early 1900s. Low wind shear and record warm sea surface temperatures will continue to affect Yasi for the next day, and the cyclone should be able to maintain Category 4 strength until landfall Wednesday evening (local time.)

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall rates in Yasi's eyewall as estimated by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are 20 mm (0.8") per hour. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queenland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi will bring highly destructive winds to a region of coast near the city of Cairns (population 150,000.) Townsville (population 200,000) is farther from the expected landfall of the eyewall, and should see lesser winds. Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet can be expected along the left front quadrant of the storm where it comes ashore. The critical thing will be when Yasi hits relative to the tidal cycle. The tidal range between low and high tide along the coast near Cairns will be about 2 meters (6 feet) during the evening of February 2. If Yasi hits at low tide, a 10-foot storm surge will only bring the water levels four feet above mean tide, but a strike at high tide would bring water levels a full ten feet above mean tide. High tide is at 9pm EST (local) time in Cairns on February 2.

Yasi is comparable to Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi is a much larger storm than Larry, though, and will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains. Yasi is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster for Australia.
Izzie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 11:11 am
@hingehead,
oh oh oh

waiting for news

be safe

(((((((((((((HH,MrsHH and H'animals))))))))))))))
xxxx
0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:15 pm
@JPB,
Latest news from the Meteorologists...

"At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
650 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS."

On the upside though, it's tilting a bit further south from Cairns.

0 Replies
 
Eorl
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 05:35 pm
@JPB,

More slightly good news for Cairns

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65001.gif?1296597472688
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  6  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 06:34 pm
Sitting in the bunker following the #tcyasi tweetstream. Dogs crashed with Mrs Hinge. Archie the Maine Coon is hiding under the bed (following Emergency Services' advice). Sam the ragdoll patrolling and teasing Archie for being a scaredy cat. About to take the dogs out the back for a loo break before the wind kicks up.

Mrs Hinge convinced we are going to lose the top floor. Sometimes I think we re completely incompatible in terms of how we deal with stressful situations.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 06:40 pm
@hingehead,
Yikes! Be safe!!!
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 06:40 pm
@hingehead,
PS when even the police's offical bulletins contain the words 'terrifying' and 'catastrophic', it does give you some pause for thought.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 06:42 pm
@hingehead,
indeed!
be safe
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:57 pm
@hingehead,
You HAVE a bunker?

Just heard Cairns told to evacuate.


Be safe sweeties.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:11 pm
@dlowan,
whoaaaaaaaaa

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10703688

Quote:
Wind gusts of up to 300km/h will accompany a devastating sea surge into low-lying areas along the north Queensland coast, with landfall expected to come just an hour after high tide hits about 9pm (midnight NZT).

Locations to the south of the landfall site are most at risk of storm surges.

The storm front is more than 500 kilometres wide and Yasi is so strong, it could reach far inland before it significantly loses power.


I can't even imagine this. As much as we currently have a storm that covers an enormous portion of Canada and the U.S., this is beyond anything I can imagine.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:36 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
Wind gusts of up to 300km/h will accompany a devastating sea surge into low-lying areas along the north Queensland coast, with landfall expected to come just an hour after high tide hits about 9pm (midnight NZT).


That's not good.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:58 pm
Thinking of you & yours, hinge.
Becoming more concerned the more reports I see.
Good luck!

According to the latest reports, the Cyclone Yasi should hit Cairns around 10 pm tonight.
Local residents are expected to be "bunkered" for around 12 hours.

From ABC News Australia (24 hour news coverage)::
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

Quote:
VIDEO REPORT:Yasi bears down on Cairns
Source: ABC News
Published: Wednesday, February 2, 2011 11:27 AEDT
Expires: Tuesday, May 3, 2011 11:27 AEDT

Cairns locals are bunkering down ahead of what is expected to be a catastrophic cyclone.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2011/02/02/3127780.htm

 

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