WEEKEND BOX OFFICE 3/14: Robots Rule!

Did you like the Coppola "Bram Stoker's Dracula?"

I recently rented "Winged Migration" and watched it through twice.

You pegged me.
Bram Stoker's Dracula is one of my all time favorites.

I had been horrified at the casting of the principles--and hey Keanu and Winona (IMO) could have been exchanged with almost anyone in Hollywood...but the rest was magic...and Oldman was a pleasant surprise.

I loved the set design, costuming, cinematography... And, of course, the doomedlove story.

Hopkins cracked me up as Van Helsing.

"Ya, she vas in alotta pain, so ve cut her head off and drove a stake through her heart and it was over."

I had no problem with Keanu or Winona. -- this was ensemble acting with Oldman's central performance -- a bittersweet, romantic approach contrasting the insidious evilness.

Hopkins was cranky, neurotic and eccentric as Van Helsing. Just perfect. The way he spilt out that particular line was comical and I found Copolla did not take the source material too seriously. Grand high gothic supremo! It was grand opera without the singing (although the score is one of my favorite soundtracks).

As expected, "The Passion of the Christ" returned to the top spot for Easter weekend. The balance of the new films shared the box office with none showing more than 2/3rds of "Passion's" gross (no I won't do a play on words on gross) except "Hellboy" (appropriate?) "The Alamo" surprisingly not starting off well despite the extremely good reviews. Is Easter weekend the best time to release a new film? I don't believe it is and this time the box office was split up in a rather strange manner. Even a weak comedy pushed near the 10M mark and it will remain to be seen if "The Alamo" can make it on word-of-mouth and the law of attrition. Disney is obviously in need of some new leadership, losing Pixar being a tough blow.

TOP STORY
Weekend warriors at the box office
'Bill,' 'Punisher' vie for piece of action

By Dave McNary

The nation's multiplexes will see a bruising face-off this weekend between a pair of R-rated avenger-type entries aimed at action fans -- Miramax's "Kill Bill Vol. 2" and Lions Gate/Artisan's "The Punisher."
Both films are showing significant traction among young males, but Quentin Tarantino's sequel, opening with 2,971 playdates, is given the better odds at broadening its appeal into other demos, as it's tracking far better among females and older males. Universal's also in 1,013 sites to open showbiz comedy "Connie and Carla," starring Nia Vardalos and Toni Collette as cabaret singers on the lam.

Distribs from other camps remain perplexed over the placement of two pics going after essentially the same core audience. Execs believe that both "Kill Bill Vol. 2" and "The Punisher" would have grossed more individually if they weren't facing each other.

"Bill" stars Uma Thurman as a wronged woman driven to vengeance against David Carradine, who plays title character; "Punisher," with 2,649 engagements, stars Tom Jane as a federal drug agent who turns vigilante after his family is killed by a crime boss played by John Travolta.

On the plus side, though, rival execs note that young males are the most frequent moviegoers and are more likely to be willing to see both films.

DVD push

Emerging consensus has been that "Kill Bill Vol. 2" will prevail, due to the benefits of strong reviews and the respectable perf by "Kill Bill Vol. 1," which had a domestic cume of $69.9 million. Consumers spent about $40 million buying the DVD of "Vol. 1" on the first day it was in stores on Tuesday, and that number is expected to nearly double over the course of the first week.

Rival distribs estimate "Kill Bill Vol. 2" will debut in the mid to high 20 millions, or slightly better than the $22.1 million opening last October for "Kill Bill Vol. 1." Industry expectations place "The Punisher" as heading for an opening in the mid to high teens. "Connie and Carla" has been tracking mostly among older females.

"Kill Bill Vol. 2" was originally slotted for a Feb. 20 release, but decided six weeks before then to go for April 16, even though "The Punisher" had already staked out the date.

"Bill" started out as one long pic until Miramax and Tarantino decided to whack it in half and release the chopsocky yarn as a two-parter.

The eighth weekend of Newmarket's "The Passion of the Christ" is also certain to be a significant player this weekend. Mel Gibson's blockbuster, which easily led five new releases in the last frame (which included Easter weekend) with $15.2 million, topped $356 million on Wednesday and has consistently outperformed forecasts.

Dan Marks, VP of box office tracker Nielsen EDI, noted that the new entries may be helped by coming into a marketplace where none of last weekend's newcomers reached the $10 million mark. "If pictures with significant consumer appeal open in what's been a lackluster market, that can be a benefit to those new films," he added.

BTW, at today's ticket prices, "Passion" will have to do another $200M to upset "Ben-Hur's" box office record.

From Variety:


Five spring forward at the B.O.
Little pix jam into theaters before summer

By Gabriel Snyder

In a last big rush before the summer, a crowded field of five medium- to small-budgeted movies will unspool this weekend.
The contenders are Paramount's "Mean Girls," New Line's "Laws of Attraction," Lions Gate's "Godsend," DreamWorks' "Envy" and Film Foundry's "Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius."

"Laws" producer David Friendly said: "Nine months ago when we picked this date, it was clear. Now people are trying to get their movies in before the big summer avalanche hits."

Despite the crush of new competition, last week's top pic "Man on Fire" looks to have a good shot at staying on top.

Denzel Washington's recent pics have dropped 40%-45% on their second weekend. If that pattern holds, New Regency and 20th Century Fox's "Man" is likely to do business in the mid-teens this weekend after opening with $22.7 million.

"Mean Girls," starring Lindsay Lohan and scripted by "Saturday Night Live's" Tina Fey, is ! expected to post the strongest numbers among the week's newcomers. Pic could give Revolution and Sony's Jennifer Garner starrer "13 Going on 30" stiff competition for filmgoing girls in the latter's sophomore session. Par will unspool the PG-13-rated "Mean Girls" in 2,839 locations.

Sony distrib prexy Rory Bruer said, "Ours is establishing itself and continuing to broaden" but added that "Mean Girls" does have "a good shot at being No. 1."

New Line will release "Laws of Attraction," a legal love story starring Pierce Brosnan and Julianne Moore, in 2,449 theaters. Though very different in subject matter than "Man on Fire," PG-13-rated "Laws" will likely appeal to older females, who, according to exit surveys, made up a big portion of the "Man" aud.

Tracking at about the same level as "Laws" is Lions Gate's PG-13-rated cloning thriller "Godsend," starring Robert De Niro, Rebecca Romijn-Stamos and Greg Kinnear. It will debut in 2,323 theaters. Execs at Lions Gate expect ! the pic to debut in the mid- single digits.

Sour grapes laffer "Envy ," which will open in 2,445 locations, is not expected to match the recent openings of its two stars, Jack Black and Ben Stiller. The last two pics starring the prolific Stiller, "Along Came Polly" and "Starsky & Hutch," opened above $25 million. Black's last pic, "The School of Rock," debuted to $19.6 million last October.

"Bobby Jones," starring Jim Caviezel, is the first release from fledgling distrib Film Foundry and centers on the life story of the golf pro. Distrib is hoping its star's success playing Jesus in "The Passion of the Christ" will pick up business for the $20 million pic; Foundry is marketing "Bobby Jones" with the tagline "His passion made him a legend." Jones tees off from 1,332 locations.

Among the weekend's exclusive openings is Monty Python Biblical spoof "The Life of Brian," which Rainbow is re-releasing on four screens in Gotham and L.A.

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE ESTIMATE
Apr. 30 - May. 2, 2004
Title Engagements Estimated
Weekend
Box Office
1. Mean Girls (PAR) 2,839 $25.0
2. Man on Fire (FOX) 2,986 $15.2
3. 13 Going On 30 (SONY) 3,453 $10.0
4. Laws of Attraction (NEW LINE) 2,449 $7.0
5. Godsend (LIONSGATE) 2,323 $6.9
6. Envy (DREAMWORK) 2,445 $6.1
7. Kill Bill Vol. 2 (MIRAMAX) 2,742 $5.8
8. The Punisher (LIONSGATE) 2,267 $3.4
9. Home on the Range (BV) 2,010 $2.2
9. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed (WB) 1,915 $2.2

Does anyone expect The Day After Tomorrow to be any better than your average doomsday flick?
<embarrassed that I want to see it>

I like the female principal in Laws of Attraction (blocking on her name), but they've billed the pairing as the 'best since Hepburn and Tracy'!!!! Can't someone be sued for slander?

I checked into seeing parts of the TV movie "10.5," a ridiculous piece of claptrap that the network didn't even broadcast in HDTV. The problem with these disaster epics is the scripts are so poorly written. "The Day After Tomorrow" has a good cast but can we hope the dialogue won't be corny cliches? Of course, the directo's previous effort "Independence Day" was hardly Shakespeare.

The blurb "best since Hepburn and Tracy" shows up with a line crediting the critic which is so small you need a microscope to read it.

The reviews are in the 2 star range.

I tried 10.5. Horrible!

Anyone seen The Punisher?

I really only saw the last fifteen or so minutes -- the previews pretty much showed all the CGI effects. It's obvious that there are expensive CGI effects and then cheap CGI effects.

I'm not racing down to the multiplex to see "The Punisher" but then I'm also not rushing down for "Man on Fire." Vengeance films are so predicable (well, except for "Kill Bill" I & II)

From Variety:



TOP STORY
U staking its claim on the summer sesh
'Van Helsing' looks to cash in on b'buster slot

By Gabriel Snyder

HOLLYWOOD -- And away we go.
Launching its biggest pic of the year -- and the first summer tentpole -- Universal opens monster mash "Van Helsing" in 3,574 locations this weekend.

Pic, on which U spent $160 million to produce and millions more to market, marks the start of the summer money season. It's the first film to bow in a five-week period when one studio after another will make expensive gambles with pics whose total production and marketing costs will most likely cross the $200 million mark.

The early summer blockbuster lineup: "Van Helsing," followed by "Troy" from Warner Bros. on May 14, "Shrek 2" from DreamWorks on May 19, "The Day After Tomorrow" from 20th Century Fox on May 28 and "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" from Warners June 4.

Ferocious competish

The rest of June, July and August is no less competitive.

Warners will counterprogram "Van Helsing" this weekend wit! h "New York Minute," the first theatrical feature starring Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen. Pic will unspool in 3,006 theaters. The frame's limited releases include fast-food-bashing docu "Super Size Me," which IDP will open with 41 playdates in seven cities.

But receiving the most scrutiny is "Van Helsing." Thanks in part to helmer Stephen Sommers' "Mummy" pictures, the first weekend in May has become the official kickoff to the lucrative summer season. "The Mummy" opened May 7, 1999, with $43.4 million; follow-up "The Mummy Returns" unspooled May 4, 2001 with $68.1 million. Last year, Fox's "X2" opened May 2 with $85.6 million.

U leapt on the date only after Sony moved "Spider-Man 2" to June 30 -- but it's also put "Van Helsing" under a microscope. NBC and U are set to consummate their merger Tuesday, meaning that, fairly or not, the performance of "Van Helsing" will serve as part of the backdrop for observers taking measure of the new entity.

U tacked on an additional $! 10 million on the budget to finish post-production in time for a day-a nd-date release in 40 territories -- and the studio has also engineered a host of tie-ins to the pic, including special DVD editions of its classic monster pics, a theme park ride, a direct-to-homevid animation franchise and a possible spinoff TV series for NBC. The success of these projects will hinge greatly on whether "Van Helsing" is deemed a hit or flop.

Managing expectations

Given all the high-drama surrounding the release of "Van Helsing" -- reporters have duly noted that the pic starts with the famous U logo going up in flames -- Universal execs are carefully managing expectations for its opening weekend, pointing to the strong track record of Sommers in spinning out summer box office hits that didn't register well with critics.

"Stephen's movies play very broadly," U vice chair Marc Shmuger said, "with equal males and females, though there is a slight male skew." He refused to offer a prediction, but said, "When you stitch up all the possible people who! will like Stephen's movies, you end up with big grosses."

Shmuger added that U is working with a largely unknown property, compared with franchises like the "Spider-Man" and "Harry Potter" sequels. " 'Van Helsing' is not an established title; it's not a sequel. We are doing all the heavy lifting," he said.

'Mean' alternative

Warners had hoped to counterprogram "Van Helsing" with its "New York Minute." But it may find stronger competition coming from Paramount's "Mean Girls," which will play for its second week.

"We're going to play a bit younger than either of those movies. We have our own demographic that we are going to corral," Warners distrib prexy Dan Fellman said.

"Super Size Me," in which filmmaker Morgan Spurlock documents what happened to him when he ate nothing but McDonald's food for 30 days, will finally see whether the storm of media it kicked up translates into B.O.

Other exclusives unspooling this weekend include Lantern Entertainment's "S! eeing Other People," which opens on four screens in Gotham and L.A.; M iramax's "Valentin," which will bow on two screens in Gotham and L.A.; and Innovation's mail-order bride pic "A Foreign Affair," which will debut on 10 screens in L.A., Phoenix and Grand Rapids, Mich.

How fickle the movie-going public is -- especially devout Christians who actually addressed Jim Caviezal as Christ! His new film "Bobby Jones" is a terrible bomb. He said he thought of making a film about golf that he'd rather watch paint dry (an old chiding remark regarding the slowest of all sports). It turns out the watching paint dry is faster than this film bringing in any money. If golfers pray to God that they will win, they'd better start praying for this movie.

I saw Van Helsing, I dunno why it was such a smash hit....

I've never liked a film about golf.

Can't imagine someone trying to pitch a movie... "Its about golf..."

I don't know how Tin Cup did at the BO. Wonder if Happy Gilmore was the biggest grossing golf movie...

Next weekend will tell the tale (perhaps better than then movie) of "Van Helsing." If it's a fun popcorn movie that the younger generation will keep flocking to see and more than once, it could become a blockbuster. It does have to buck up against "Troy." "Troy" is rumored to have cost more than 200M to make and distribute. It really has a tough nut to crack. So far, the reviews are good.

Sundays is Variety's weekend estimates, Tuesdays is the final weekend boxoffice with cumulative totals.

"Troy" had a goal of a 60M weekend but, of course, it really is word of mouth that bouys that important second weekend.

From Variety:



Auds trek to 'Shrek'
Numbers bode well as pic looks to expand on Friday

By Gabriel Snyder

HOLLYWOOD -- The green machine is back.
"Shrek 2" grossed $11.8 million in its first day of release -- a fast start that puts the pic on track to get well past $80 million by Sunday.

Toon sequel bowed in 3,737 locations but will expand to an eye-popping 4,163 playdates on Friday, making it the first film to ever play in more than 4,000 locations.

"Shrek's" Wednesday opening is the best for an animated feature, topping the $10.1 million "Pokemon" picked up on its first day in November 1999 and the $9.5 million first-day for "Toy Story 2" two weeks later.

DreamWorks distrib prexy Jim Tharp noted that "Shrek 2" was not being released into a long weekend as were those other pics; Veterans Day with "Pokemon" and Thanksgiving for "Toy Story."

"Both of these pictures were before holidays, which is why I think this is so spectacular," he said.

According to exit surveys, families made up only 60% of the "! Shrek" aud, well under the usual 85% level that most toon features see.

That low number, Tharp said, reflected the fact that few schools are out for summer and that some families will wait for the weekend shows.

Wednesday openings are unusual for toons. The biggest grossing animated pic, last summer's "Finding Nemo" from Pixar and Walt Disney, opened on the Friday after Memorial Day and took in $70.2 million over its first three days.

"Shrek's" opening in 3,737 locations was the second-widest debut, just trailing "X2's" 3,741 last year.

But when it expands to 4,163 bookings on Friday it will topple the widest-ever record set by "Spider-Man" in 2002 when it reached 3,876 theaters in its fourth week of release.

"It was never about records," said Tharp. "It was about how do you maximize the box office."

The studio's key concern is "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban," which Warner Bros. will open in two weeks.

"The reason we wanted to take this number of ru! ns is that the summer is very crowded," Tharp said. "This gives us two weeks before 'Harry Potter' and 'Potter' has to be considered very strong in our key demographic."

DreamWorks wasn't celebrating the ultrawide release pattern, but by setting an opening benchmark, "Shrek 2" could have the effect of putting pressure on other distribs to up their theater counts as well.

The original "Shrek," released in 2001, grossed $268 million domestically and $483 million worldwide. Those huge numbers, though, were testament to how well it played over time. A rule of thumb in the biz says the wider a picture opens, the quicker it will drop off in the box office.

Tharp acknowledged that risk. "We're trying to get it before we get hit by what's really direct competition," he said.

"Shrek II" breaks all sorts of records and without help from the pulpit, if you know what I mean. The critical response is very good and it appears the country needs some fantasy escapist comedy more than they need their face rubbed in gore and misplaced sanctity.

It's been a lethargic year for the box office, up until now off by 15%. Will "Shrek II," "The Day After Tomorrow" and the new "Harry Potter" change the course?

Is Hollwood worried about the slump of the box office, the first in 12 years? Here's a CNN Money opinion:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/19/news/companies/oscars_studios/