Wrestlin' in Wisconsin

@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

Intrade gives Walker a 90.3% chance of winning the June 5 recall.

The margin matters a lot......if this is a blow-out then the Dems will
Look out of touch. I am not convinced that this will happen, but I would like to see it here, as it would discourage attempts at recall over relatively trivial matters.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

Brand new poll out today from GQR Research showing Walker leading by only 3 (so, a statistical tie). Will probably all come down to turnout and I think both sides will be fired-up.

Quote:

Walker has been pulling ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in polls on the June 5 recall election sparked by the governor’s collective bargaining reforms. But internal polling from We Are Wisconsin, a labor-backed coalition supporting the recall, finds a dead heat.

In a survey of 472 recall voters conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from May 19 to 21, Walker leads Barrett 50 to 47 — within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Barrett leads with independents, 50 percent to 44 percent.

We Are Wisconsin spokesman Kelly Steele argued that the polls showing Walker in the lead oversampled Republicans and that the “pre-mortems” are premature.

“[T]his race remains a dead heat, with Barrett solidifying and even building on his lead amongst Independents, and Democrats’ turnout operation in full gear as early voting and GOTV begin in earnest,” Steele said in a memo.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

If the dems do in fact carry independents they will be able to claim a victory of sorts, even if Walker wins. I will be watching.

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Two new polls out today. One has Walker up by 5, the other has him up by 8. (Neither have yet been factored into RealClearPolitic's average that has Walker up by 6).

Intrade betting dipped to 85% today then zipped back up to 93 or 94. Currently around 90%.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

The results of the recall election in Wisconsin, given all the effort, money, and energy poured into the struggle by labor unions, the liberal media and the official Democrat organizations, may be a harbinger of things to come in the presidential race. Under Senator Robert LaFolette, Wisconsin was the birthplace of the so called "Progressive" movement in American politics. Things appear to be changing.

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@georgeob1,

If true then it prove that unlimited funding can result in people voting against their own clear best interests and the US experiment in democracy like the Roman one two thousands years before had about run it course.

At least the Rome people got bread and circuses but it seems that our about to become new overlords are not going to provide even that to us let alone SS or Medicare in our old age.

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@georgeob1,

Nothing is changing. Money still controls government just as it has for he last 150 years. Once in every 50 years the common man gits a small break which the rich take back so we dont get mad enough to start shooting people. they did learn from the French revolution.

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@RABEL222,

Unfortunately you and Bill have your facts wrong. Both in Wisconsin and nationally in the presidential race it is the Democrats who have and are spending the most money , and by a very wide margin.

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@georgeob1,

Wow. You must live in some kind of alternate universe george.

All reports I have seen say Walker has a 25-1 money advantage over his opponent.

Even when you include outside groups the GOP and Walker have outspent the Dems
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/28/gop-out-spends-dems-to-run-ads-in-wisconsin-recall/
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/05/gop-doubling-democrats-in-wisconsin-ad-spending-124572.html

Quote:

According to our data, Walker and GOP-leaning outside groups (like the RGA and Americans for Prosperity) have spent nearly $23 million on the airwaves, compared with $10 million for the Democrats --

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/25/11877763-first-thoughts-obama-continues-to-blast-romney?lite

I would love to see a "source" for your "facts" george. I doubt you can find one but go ahead and try.

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@georgeob1,

LOL every economic experts on both sides stated that once the good old GOP got us in the situation of an almost complete economic melt down the only way not to revisit the 1930s was to pour money into the economic to keep demands somewhat alive.

The Bush administration started that ball rolling in it last days in office not the incoming Obama administration.

However any attempts to try to balance this large outgo by raising the tax rate on the top two percents back to before Bush 2 was blocked by the good old party of the super rich.

If the GOP get control of the government once more it is going to be the end of the middle class as we had known it.

Welcome to the 1930s that the GOP also got us into by not controlling the finance markets.

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UW Teaching Assistants' Association won't support Tom Barrett in recall election

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New Marquette Law School Poll via twitter minutes ago:

Walker 52%,
Barrett 45%

Likely voters.
MoE +/- 4%

1 Reply

@Irishk,

These results are indicative of how most voters feel about government unions. Even in our area, San Jose, CA, there will be votes on the overly generous pension and health plans provided to safety officers that limits other public services. I have a feeling that given the chance to vote to cut these government benefits will be popular, because negotiations with unions have been a big failure.

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Not looking great for the recall effort. Too bad the Dems couldn't get united behind a candidate.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Not looking great for the recall effort. Too bad the Dems couldn't get united behind a candidate.

Cycloptichorn

It is over...Walker is even more ahead in the most recent polls, he has never been behind, he has been way ahead on money, and the repubs are stooked wanting to shove a humiliating loss at the Dems. The dems are about to learn the the wise never ask a question like this before they are sure they know the answer, and the answer is the one they want. The dems were idiots, as some local dem leaders have been telling journalists these last days.

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I think this latest poll (and their last, before the election) was done (mostly) before the first debate (2 left).

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@hawkeye10,

I think you mean that the big money interests were terrified of losing their influence, so they poured big bucks into getting their patsy re-elected.

1 Reply

@DrewDad,

DrewDad wrote:

I think you mean that the big money interests were terrified of losing their influence, so they poured big bucks into getting their patsy re-elected.

The big monied and big spending interest groups control both parties, are you so out of the loop that you dpnt know this? Also, this is a recall effort not an election, when Walker wins he will have put down a recall effort, he will not be newly elected.

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@hawkeye10,

Don't get too cocky just yet.

http://wispolitics.com/1006/large/Toplines_WI_Recall_public_05_30_12.pdf

1 Reply

@Irishk,

I haven't seen any recent polling on the 4 Senate recall elections. The last one from April 16 shows Republicans leading in all of them but one within the margin of error.

1 Reply

Wrestlin' in Wisconsin

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