Wrestlin' in Wisconsin

Not looking great for the recall effort. Too bad the Dems couldn't get united behind a candidate.

Cycloptichorn

Are you certain the result won't be an accurate reflection of the public will in Wisconsin?

Also, this is a recall effort not an election, when Walker wins he will have put down a recall effort, he will not be newly elected.

hawkeye10 wrote:

Also, this is a recall effort not an election, when Walker wins he will have put down a recall effort, he will not be newly elected.

Pedantry doesn't become you. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, I don't go and look up the exact species; I call it a duck.

A 6-7% margin is a decisive gap in any presidential election.

In this case it appears to be a very convenient way for you to avoid the very likely and fasirly obvious implications of the result in Wisconsin - a swing state the Democrats were counting on winning just a few months ago.

Very hard for me to visualize Obama winning in Wisconsin after a defeat of the recall effort. Perhaps if it's a cliff hanger with an extremely narrow margin, such a recversal could occur. Howevver even a 2% margin woulkd be decisive and very likely a fatal indicator for Obama's chances in the state.

I do agree the implications of the result in Wisconsin for voter behavior in other states are of unknown merit or force. However, the result is not at all likely to be a contrary indicator for trends afoot among voters in the persuadable middle of the political spectrum. An unsuccessful recall in Wisconsin will certainly be an unfavorable indicator for Obama, though how strong will be hard to guess. Conversely a successful recall will be favorable for Obama, but again how strong, hard to predict.

The latest Marquette University Law School poll, which is one of the go-to, in-state polls for recall observers, has an interesting statistic on the perception of public- and private-sector employee unions. Given the ardent political activism of the Wisconsin Education Association Council and other unions last winter in opposing Walker's legislation affecting unions (taking away most collective-bargaining rights and requiring public employees to pay more for benefits), and the unions' success in finding enough people to sign a recall petition, one might believe unions enjoy both clout and fairly strong popularity in The Badger State.

Not so, says Marquette. In its May 23-26 poll, only 40 percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable view of public-sector unions, while 45 percent viewed them unfavorably. Meanwhile, in the same poll, 44 percent said they had a favorable view of private-sector unions, compared with 35 percent who viewed those unions unfavorably. Those ratings remain essentially unchanged from March.

What accounts for this relatively poor showing for public-sector unions in particular? Well, take a look at the results when Marquette asked people if they approved of Walker's initiatives. Three-quarters of respondents said they approved of the law Walker signed requiring public employees to contribute to their own pensions and pay more for health insurance, while 55 percent approved of the new limits on collective bargaining for state employees that Walker signed into law.



But here's one twist: A plurality of those surveyed, 39 percent, thought the new collective bargaining limitations have "decreased jobs" in Wisconsin. Here's another twist: President Barack Obama received a favorable rating of 55 percent of respondents.

What to make of all this? One thought is that perhaps those surveyed are able to sift and separate their feelings on national and state politics.

Here's another possible explanation, which paraphrases a rule from political satirist P.J. O'Rourke regarding the social sciences: Folks think lots of things. We don't know why. Test on Tuesday.

Obama may well win the state in the coming election, but we apparently agree that a defeat in the recall election today will reduce his odds of success. No point in arguing how much or how sensitive the connection may be. We'll all know soon enough.

My opinion is the recall outcome, given all the effort, sound and fury put into the preceeding struggle by both sides ( labor unions in particular),

"Jun 5, 2012 5:36pm
Whatever Walker’s Fate, Obama Leads Romney in Wisco

Whatever Scott Walker’s fate, Barack Obama may drag some bragging rights out of the Wisconsin governor’s recall election: Voters in preliminary exit poll results today say they favor Obama over Mitt Romney in November’s presidential election by a slight 6-point margin (51-45 percent).

These results are preliminary so it remains to be seen if that result will hold in final exit poll results later tonight. If so, it might provide Obama forces with pushback should Walker, the incumbent Republican, prevail in the recall election against Democratic candidate Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee."