Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 May, 2012 03:30 pm
@parados,
This is all I could come up with when I went searching the other day.

Looks as if John Lehman has a chance against Van Wanggaard, though, if those numbers are holding.

Edit to add: Ah, I think we're looking at the same one.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 May, 2012 10:46 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Not looking great for the recall effort. Too bad the Dems couldn't get united behind a candidate.

Cycloptichorn


Is that your excuse-in-advance ???? A little weak compared to your bombast on the subject last year.

Are you certain the result won't be an accurate reflection of the public will in Wisconsin?

Wisconsin has been the scene of very intense campaigning by the Democrats and their loyal labor union paymasters in pursuit of some vital interests, namely their monopoly on public employee membership, and the steady stream of forcibly witheld cash it brings them. We shall see what happens when these folks have the freedom to individually choose their own associations and just who can represent them. Freedom is a wonderful thing.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 May, 2012 09:24 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:

Are you certain the result won't be an accurate reflection of the public will in Wisconsin?


I'm quite sure it will be. But recall elections aren't just to toss one guy out, they are to put another guy in instead. If there's not enough support for the guy that is running against the incumbent, on the side that wants the incumbent out, it's going to be pretty tough to unseat the guy. That doesn't necessarily mean that people aren't into the idea of tossing the original guy out; it seems pretty clear that 45% of the state is indeed into that idea. Which is a lot, but not quite enough.

Re: intense campaigning, the national GOP and wealthy private donors have pumped a tremendously large amount of money into the race to defend Walker; out-spending their opponents considerably. So, I would say that there has been 'intense campaigning' on both sides.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 May, 2012 09:40 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
Also, this is a recall effort not an election, when Walker wins he will have put down a recall effort, he will not be newly elected.

Pedantry doesn't become you. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, I don't go and look up the exact species; I call it a duck.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 May, 2012 01:42 pm
@DrewDad,
DrewDad wrote:

hawkeye10 wrote:
Also, this is a recall effort not an election, when Walker wins he will have put down a recall effort, he will not be newly elected.

Pedantry doesn't become you. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, I don't go and look up the exact species; I call it a duck.


Is Walker going to get swarn into office again?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 May, 2012 02:57 pm
@hawkeye10,
Yea, probably sworn into office. Smile
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 May, 2012 05:49 pm
@hawkeye10,
Are people voting to determine who will hold the office?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 09:54 am
Despite all the bickering, it will be very interesting to observe the results of today's election in Wisconsin - whatever the outcome may be.

The stakes are high for the competing interests in Wisconsin and as well, probably very significant in indicating some political trends that may affect the forthcoming national elections just five months ahead.

A Republican victory will likely embolden other states to take on their government employee unions which have in many cases done so much to inflate government costs. Conversely, a defeat for the current Governor will likely severely damp any such efforts. A number of states legiclatures are considering right to work laws or other legislation limiting the reach of government employee unions. The fate of al these initiatives will be strongly influenced by today's elections.

It is less clear how strongly today's result may be an indicator for the November national elections, but the outcome of such an election in a swing state such as Wisconsin is clearly a significant factor in evaluating trends.

The 55% (or so) of AFSME union members in Wisconsin who have already voluntarily stopped paying dues and abandoned the union, are either voting with their feet or providing an example of the nasty human impulse to freeload if given the chance, depending on your prejudices.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 09:57 am
@georgeob1,
If Walker wins by more than 6-7%, I would be worried for Obama's chances there this Fall. If it's a narrow win, not so worried, based on past trends and the fact that Obama is still polling quite well there (often in the same polls that show Walker winning).

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 10:17 am
@Cycloptichorn,
A 6-7% margin is a decisive gap in any presidential election. In this case it appears to be a very convenient way for you to avoid the very likely and fasirly obvious implications of the result in Wisconsin - a swing state the Democrats were counting on winning just a few months ago. Very hard for me to visualize Obama winning in Wisconsin after a defeat of the recall effort. Perhaps if it's a cliff hanger with an extremely narrow margin, such a recversal could occur. Howevver even a 2% margin woulkd be decisive and very likely a fatal indicator for Obama's chances in the state.

I do agree the implications of the result in Wisconsin for voter behavior in other states are of unknown merit or force. However, the result is not at all likely to be a contrary indicator for trends afoot among voters in the persuadable middle of the political spectrum. An unsuccessful recall in Wisconsin will certainly be an unfavorable indicator for Obama, though how strong will be hard to guess. Conversely a successful recall will be favorable for Obama, but again how strong, hard to predict.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 10:28 am
@georgeob1,
Don't you think there's a difference between a recall of a governor and the election for the president - even in Wisconsin?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 10:29 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

A 6-7% margin is a decisive gap in any presidential election.


I wouldn't expect there to be a 6-7% gap in WI this year for the presidential election.

Quote:
In this case it appears to be a very convenient way for you to avoid the very likely and fasirly obvious implications of the result in Wisconsin - a swing state the Democrats were counting on winning just a few months ago.


There's no polling evidence that shows this is true. I ask you to look at the polling yourself:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

Romney has never led a single poll there this cycle. Many of these polls showing Obama at +5-8% are the same polls that showed Walker winning. Thus my comment to that effect above. I think that, barring a national shift in numbers that puts many states in danger for Obama, they can count on winning WI this cycle, even if Walker prevails in the recall.

Quote:
Very hard for me to visualize Obama winning in Wisconsin after a defeat of the recall effort. Perhaps if it's a cliff hanger with an extremely narrow margin, such a recversal could occur. Howevver even a 2% margin woulkd be decisive and very likely a fatal indicator for Obama's chances in the state.


Mmm-hmm. The polling evidence doesn't support this conclusion. This is mostly wishful thinking on your part. Obama's GOTV operation in WI is quite strong and Romney has spent very little resources there, and isn't likely to - it's about as likely that he'll win WI as Obama winning AZ.

Quote:
I do agree the implications of the result in Wisconsin for voter behavior in other states are of unknown merit or force. However, the result is not at all likely to be a contrary indicator for trends afoot among voters in the persuadable middle of the political spectrum. An unsuccessful recall in Wisconsin will certainly be an unfavorable indicator for Obama, though how strong will be hard to guess. Conversely a successful recall will be favorable for Obama, but again how strong, hard to predict.


This I do agree with. The problem for your predictions is that Obama can afford to hemorrhage a lot of support and still win WI, as Romney generally polls pretty poorly there.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 12:52 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I'm not familiar with the Wisconsin poll results for the presidential candidates, and I don't dispute your characterization of them.

Many elections have defied poll results, and the findings of various polls very often reflect the biases of those taking them (both left and right).

Moreover, we're in a particularly dymamic phase of the camnpaign right now with the distractions of the Republican primary just behind us and many people across the country beginning to settle in on their relative preferences in a two horse race.

Obama & the Dems won Wisconsin by a comfortable margin in the last Presidential election, but the state has shown itself to be rather independent and able to swing left or right. Just the fact that the Republicans took the state government in the last election reminds us of that fact.
Obama may well win the state in the coming election, but we apparently agree that a defeat in the recall election today will reduce his odds of success. No point in arguing how much or how sensitive the connection may be. We'll all know soon enough.

My opinion is the recall outcome, given all the effort, sound and fury put into the preceeding struggle by both sides ( labor unions in particular), is likely to be a telling indicator of the trajectory of public reactions to the ongoing political struggle/dialogue nationally.

Both sides in the political struggle appear to be still able to construct favorable scenarios and explanatyions for optimism in the coming Presidential election. All it takes on either side is a little selective examination of observable facts. My impression though is that enthusiasm for Obama is waning among some of his former supporters and that public concerns about his effectiveness in office and the direction of the few things which appear to consistently engage him is growing.
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 01:07 pm
@georgeob1,


Quote:

The latest Marquette University Law School poll, which is one of the go-to, in-state polls for recall observers, has an interesting statistic on the perception of public- and private-sector employee unions. Given the ardent political activism of the Wisconsin Education Association Council and other unions last winter in opposing Walker's legislation affecting unions (taking away most collective-bargaining rights and requiring public employees to pay more for benefits), and the unions' success in finding enough people to sign a recall petition, one might believe unions enjoy both clout and fairly strong popularity in The Badger State.

Not so, says Marquette. In its May 23-26 poll, only 40 percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable view of public-sector unions, while 45 percent viewed them unfavorably. Meanwhile, in the same poll, 44 percent said they had a favorable view of private-sector unions, compared with 35 percent who viewed those unions unfavorably. Those ratings remain essentially unchanged from March.

What accounts for this relatively poor showing for public-sector unions in particular? Well, take a look at the results when Marquette asked people if they approved of Walker's initiatives. Three-quarters of respondents said they approved of the law Walker signed requiring public employees to contribute to their own pensions and pay more for health insurance, while 55 percent approved of the new limits on collective bargaining for state employees that Walker signed into law.



But here's one twist: A plurality of those surveyed, 39 percent, thought the new collective bargaining limitations have "decreased jobs" in Wisconsin. Here's another twist: President Barack Obama received a favorable rating of 55 percent of respondents.

What to make of all this? One thought is that perhaps those surveyed are able to sift and separate their feelings on national and state politics.

Here's another possible explanation, which paraphrases a rule from political satirist P.J. O'Rourke regarding the social sciences: Folks think lots of things. We don't know why. Test on Tuesday.


source
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 01:13 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:

Obama may well win the state in the coming election, but we apparently agree that a defeat in the recall election today will reduce his odds of success. No point in arguing how much or how sensitive the connection may be. We'll all know soon enough.


I don't actually agree with that. A defeat today - and not by a little, but by a lot - would be a SIGN of trouble for Obama, but not a REASON for trouble for Obama. I don't see the failure to unseat Walker being a determining factor in whether Obama wins or loses.

WI has gone Dem in elections since 1984, it's a pretty safe state for the Dems. Unless the entire national picture swings against Obama, he's exceedingly likely to win there.

Quote:
My opinion is the recall outcome, given all the effort, sound and fury put into the preceeding struggle by both sides ( labor unions in particular),


Walker out-spent his opponents by 7 to 1 in this recall election, with the vast majority of money coming from corporate donors and wealthy out-of-state millionaires. So, I wouldn't say 'labor unions in particular' is an accurate way to portray the election.

Our opinions of the upcoming election aside, I'll rely happily upon the last 30+ polls in WI, which all show Obama in the lead. It's certainly possible to quibble with individual polls, but the preponderance of evidence in this case doesn't support the position that Obama is in any danger of losing WI.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 02:25 pm
@revelette,
Good post; explains a whole lot about the difference between voting on a recall of a governor who favors cutting government unions vs national elections for president. The very thought I had throughout this whole mess.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 04:03 pm
Reports of massive turnout all over WI have both sides feeling hopeful. Madison, in particular, seems to be on pace to shatter all previous turnout records (thanks to same-day registration).

And, regarding our earlier discussion of whether or not this election has negative portents for Obama:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/whatever-walkers-fate-obama-leads-romney-in-wisco/

Quote:

"Jun 5, 2012 5:36pm
Whatever Walker’s Fate, Obama Leads Romney in Wisco

Whatever Scott Walker’s fate, Barack Obama may drag some bragging rights out of the Wisconsin governor’s recall election: Voters in preliminary exit poll results today say they favor Obama over Mitt Romney in November’s presidential election by a slight 6-point margin (51-45 percent).

These results are preliminary so it remains to be seen if that result will hold in final exit poll results later tonight. If so, it might provide Obama forces with pushback should Walker, the incumbent Republican, prevail in the recall election against Democratic candidate Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee."


This is right in line with many other polls of WI. I repeat my earlier prediction that it will be difficult for Romney to win this state, without altering the game on a national level first.

Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 07:27 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Initial exit polls are at 50-50, per CNN. Wow. going to be a long night.

We'll see how things go over the course of the evening - Walker could pull ahead and the whole point will be moot. But it's heartening for the Dems - the GOP thought this whole thing was wrapped up solid for weeks now.

Cycloptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 08:07 pm
NBC has already called it for Walker, so it must not have been as close as previously advertised.......
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 08:12 pm
@hawkeye10,
CNN calls it for Lt. Gov. Kleefisch.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

 
Copyright © 2021 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 09/23/2021 at 12:08:06