If one of the major 'players' (who shares control with a few others of the 25) defeats this constitution, it makes one wonder (looking from the outside), why the smaller countries would vote "yes?"
A negative vote could bring months of political confusion and even much longer lasting debates over the next move.
georgeob1 wrote:What then do you guys believe will be the political after effects (if any) of a rejection by France and The Netherlands in Western Europe? Among the new members in the East?
I dunno really. But if I were a Central European in one of those new member states, I'd be pretty pissed off that my country's had to wrestle itself through shelf-lengths of EU Acquis to integrate into its legislation, adapt its whole social-legislative system to - and then when its up to them West-Europeans to accept some adaptions, the very first country of 'em just rejects the whole thing right off the bat! Spoiled, self-centred bunch, is what I'd be thinking.
But then again, I havent got a clue how or whether that aligns with actual popular opinion here.
A nice summary (pdf-file) can be found here:
What happens if France votes no?
Nah! Bunkum!
Helmut Kohl said it best in all the years he was Chancellor (though I don't know if he ever said so in public, in private I've often heard him repeat it):
"I don't care about the French sending me their bills for payment, but I wish they would add a German translation to their request!"
The Eastern Europeans can lump it if they don't like it; Turkey (which first applied in 1959 to join) can re-apply in 2059 far as FR and NL are concerned. Non, nein, nyet, and whatever it is in Dutch rules
P.S. the errors of some posters are too numerous to ever rectify but at least 10 parliaments and one plebiscite (in Spain) have already ratified the bureaucratic monstrosity known as the proposed EU constitution.
Nothing will happen, other than the bureaucrats may finally realize the wisdom of those 3 words:
"We the people...." <G>
P.P.S. before the lying flake using a fake title of nobility jumps on the one detail left unspecified in the previous post: the parliament of Spain must yet ratify the popular result (yes 77%) but they have said they will abide by the vote.
Netherlands parliament has said the same, with the proviso that turnout will be minimum 30%.
Is this a right place for a bet? Betting both FR and NL vote NO with significant majorities and voter turnout <G>
Germany's upper house of parliament approved the treaty Friday, meaning that nine countries _ comprising 220 million citizens, or nearly half the EU population _ have now approved it.
"The voice of nearly 50 percent of the European Union cannot be ignored," said EU Vice President Margot Wallstrom, pledging the ratification process must go ahead even if France says no.
http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=105&sid=524008
HofT wrote:P.P.S. before the lying flake using a fake title of nobility jumps on the one detail left unspecified in the previous post
Talking about his Lordship, did you ever go back to that other thread to honestly acknowledge the straightforward mistake you made? After condescendingly scorning his lack of education on the matter its the least you could do, you know...
On my part, I herewith acknowledge that indeed, France and its referendum do not of course constitute "the very first country of 'em", as I'd described it in my anecdotal recounting of how I'd feel if I were, say, a Hungarian. That was poetic freedom, so to say, in expressing what would have in any case been a feeling rather than a reasoned argument. Other countries did already ratify it, as HofT pointed out, and the Spanish actually voted for it in a referendum.
Nimh - haven't the faintest concept what you're talking about; on the other thread I corrected some historical errors, thanked my host, and departed.
Will look into the thread if you think it's relevant after Memorial Day at which day I have to attend a memorial service for a friend (USMC) recently killed in Afghanistan. Obviously you have nothing important to worry about, may it ever be your case
Last sentence in post above duly edited to reflect that the Spanish did already vote in favour the Constitution, but its parliament did not formally ratify it yet.
HofT, you havent got a clue what things of importance may or may not be at play in my life at this moment, and may that ever be the case. My condolences for your friend, however. He served a just cause in Afghanistan.
Thank you for the condolences, NIMH.
What will be an interesting irony/result of all this is if the UK and Germany gets together and forms the power base for the EU, and France is left out on the 'sidelines.'
Back a page or so Walter posted a link from the "Centre for European Reform", a UK-based study group, on the issues behind the possible French rejection, and the likely consequences of it. Very interesting reading. The paper suggests that a great deal of the internal resistance to the Constitution in France has to do with perceived threats to the government-controlled social and economic protections offered by France (and the other wealthy western European powers as well}. Recent political resistance to new rules liberalizing the service sector of European economies, including the freer export of services were offered as a case in point. A very interesting analysis.
I believe the issue here turns on whether or not the observer regards the social welfare structures of France, Germany, and to a lesser extent Spain and Italy, as sustainable or even desirable in a 21st century that will be dominated by increasing economic development and competition from Asia. My view is that they are neither sustainable nor desirable. Further I suspect they may well be linked as a causal factor to the demographic collapse that faces these nations, further exacerbating the unsustainability of the social welfare programs at the root of it all.
I suspect the new Baltic and eastern European states in the EU have a better understanding of the new social and economic realities than do those of Rumsfeld's "old Europe". Moreover they are more willing to make the effort to compete, having, unlike "old Europe" no illusions to fall back on. They too face the same demographic issues as do France, Germany, et. al. It will be interesting to see if any relative changes develop in that area over the next few years. It is odd to observe the greater optimism and self-confidence among the recently liberated people of eastern Europe, compared to the evident protectionist pessimism so prevalent in the West.
Overall the analysis offered a rather bleak assessment of the prospects of the EU, and, more importantly, of the willingness of many Europeans to squarely face the serious social and economic issues before them.
That was in re: to c.i., not george, obviously.
nimh, I thought it was an interesting idea never-the-less - irregardless of any perceived potential.
Here's an interesting link on the aging population of the developed countries as it stands now and projected for 2050. Germany, Japan and Italy are in the worst shape, with other European countries also showing problems. The US seems to be in pretty good shape - comparatively speakng.
http://www.csis.org/europe/2003_Nov_03_Jackson.pdf#search='aging%20of%20europe's%20workforce'
