FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

Dutch pollster Maurice de Hond is anticipating on the referendum about the European Constitution. He polled people's intentions: whether they were planning to vote, and if so, how.

Do you intend to vote in the referendum?

Yes 44%
Perhaps 38%
No 10%

If you are going to vote, what will you vote?

Certainly vote in favour 11%
Probably in favour 21%

Probably against 19%
Certainly against 15%

Dont know / no answer 35%

32% against 34%, with the "no" voters slightly more resolved. Tight race.

Furthermore, the "no" voters at the moment seem more likely to vote. The voters of the Socialists and the populist-rightwing List Fortuyn and Group Wilders - which will all campaign against the constitution - are most likely to say they're planning to vote. The voters of the Green Left, Labour Party and Christian-Democrats, which will all campaign in favour of the constitution, are least likely to say they're planning to vote.

The breakdown by party is interesting in any case. Who's in favour, who's against? From left to right:

Socialist Party [voters]:
(Probably) in favour: 18%. (Probably) against: 51%.

Green Left:
(Probably) in favour: 47%. (Probably) against: 17%.

Labour Party:
(Probably) in favour: 37%. (Probably) against: 23%.

Democrats:
(Probably) in favour: 48%. (Probably) against: 11%.

Christian-Democrats
(Probably) in favour: 43%. (Probably) against: 30%.

Freedom and Democracy (right-wing liberals):
(Probably) in favour: 23%. (Probably) against: 37%.

Group Wilders:
(Probably) in favour: 7%. (Probably) against: 69%.

List Pim Fortuyn:
(Probably) in favour: 7%. (Probably) against: 67%.

Not included in the breakdown are voters of the small Christian Union and (even more Christian) State Reformed Party, who are eurosceptic as well.

Same picture as always: approval is greatest in the center, disapproval is most strong on the far right and far left.

The voters break down pretty much the same way as their leaders, with the one exception. The right-wing liberals are going to campaign in favour of the constitution, but their voters are actually mostly against.

I do predict the numbers will shift quickly towards approval once the campaign for the constitution starts up, with both all three right-wing government parties and two of the three leftwing opposition parties putting themselves on the line for it. But there's always the off-chance that this is exactly what will trigger a Fortuyn-type protest against "the establishment" and its regentesque "old politics". Everything's possible here nowadays.

Die-hard pro-Europeans like the Democrats and Greens will be fine. The Christian-Democrats with their authority-abiding older voters will be too. Its the Labour Party and the right-wing liberals that could lose face badly, if their voters are rallied by the agitators on their left and right flank, respectively.

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This news does ont bode well for the EU.
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Five million Germans out of work

It can be a long wait for jobs at Germany's unemployment centres
Germany's unemployment figure rose above the psychologically important level of five million last month.
On Wednesday, the German Federal Labour Agency said the jobless total had reached 5.037 million in January, which takes the jobless rate to 12.1%.

"Yes, we have effectively more than five million people unemployed," a government minister said earlier on ZDF public television.

Unemployment has not been this high in Germany since the 1930s.

Changing calculations

Changes to the way the statistics are compiled partly explain the jump of 572,900 in the numbers.

But the figures are embarrassing for the government.

"With the figures apparently the worst we've seen in the post-war period, these numbers are very charged politically," said Christian Jasperneite, an economist with MM Warburg.

"They could well put an end to the recent renaissance we've seen by the SPD [the ruling Social Democrats] in the polls, and with state elections due in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, they may have an adverse effect on the government's chances there."

Worse to come

The opposition also made political capital from the figures. It said there are a further 1.5 million-2 million people on subsidised employment schemes who are, in fact, looking for real jobs.

It added that government reforms, including unpopular benefit cuts, do not go far enough.

Under the government's controversial "Hartz IV" reforms, which came into effect at the beginning of the year, both those on unemployment benefits and welfare support and those who are long-term unemployed are officially classified as looking for work.

The bad winter weather also took its toll, as key sectors such as the construction sector laid off workers.

Adjusted for the seasonal factors, the German jobless total rose by 227,000 in January from December.

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cicerone imposter wrote:

This news does ont bode well for the EU.

Well, for the first time ever, the welfare recipients were included in the jobless statistic = now the data contain everybody getting money from the state and being jobless. (And these data will grow, since you can get this money your life long.)

(The total rose last year was 227,000 - as said above.)

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Quote:

Euro zone jobless rate rises to 8.9 percent

Wednesday, February 2, 2005

MARCIN GRAJEWSKI

BRUSSELS - Reuters

The euro zone unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent in December from a revised 8.8 percent in November, confirming the region's inability to create jobs despite modest growth.

European Union statistics office Eurostat revised the jobless rate for the 12-nation single currency area down to 8.8 percent in November and October from 8.9 percent. The jobless rates for June and July were also revised down to 8.8 percent.

Results in line with expectations:

Previous data had showed an eight-month streak of unchanged unemployment rates of 8.9 percent until November. The result was in line with analysts' expectations.

Eurostat estimated that 12.6 million people were without jobs in the euro zone and 19 million remained unemployed in the 25-nation European Union.

Analysts say rigid labor laws and industrial overregulation hampers job creation in many EU countries, keeping domestic demand in check and stifling economic growth.

The persistent failure of euro zone consumers to open up their wallets leaves the region's expansion dependent on exports and thus at the mercy of growth in other countries.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast euro zone growth of 1.8 percent in 2005. European Central Bank staff has estimated last year's growth at between 1.6 and 2.0 percent.

Unemployment higher than in US and Japan:

The unemployment rate in the euro zone and the same figure for the EU remain significantly higher than in the United States and Japan, which have jobless figures of 5.4 percent and 4.4 percent respectively.

Eurostat said that the lowest euro zone jobless rates were registered in Ireland at 4.3 percent, Luxembourg at 4.4 percent, Austria at 4.5 percent and the Netherlands at 4.7 percent.

The highest rate was in Spain at 10.4 percent.

France and Germany, the euro zone's two top economies, saw their unemployment rates increase to 9.7 percent and 10.0 percent respectively from 9.6 percent and 9.9 percent.

In the 25-nation EU, jobless rates were generally higher in the mostly ex-communist countries that joined the bloc last May, with Poland and Slovakia recording 18.3 percent and 16.9 percent respectively.

source

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Very interesting posts - Thanks Walter and Nimh.

I believe the EU has a number of inescapable and serious choices to make arising both from the surrender of soverignty that will inevitably be required, and from the stresses of new members at different levels of economic development. This is a so far very successful enterprise which is almost without precedent in the modern world (certainly in the last two centuries). Some of the issues ahead could significantly delay progress or alter the conceptual framework itself. Despite these uncertainties, it may well produce lessons and new ideas that could be useful in other areas of the world.

I have a great antipathy for the conventional European view of the current world, but do find much in the evolution of the EU that is both interesting for its own sake and potentially very beneficial for Europeans certainly and the world as well. If the EU succeeds in its internal development and then chooses to position itself as a competing and (inevitably) antagonistic world power, then a new pattern of alliances will develop which may lead to new conflicts that I believe Europe is ill-equipped to win.

I found Nimh's observation that support for the EU is greatest in the center of the political spectrum, and least at both left and right extremes, most interesting. Is that generally true? In France? Germany? Poland?

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Walter, It would seem to me that the currency exchange rates between the US dollar and Euro will exacerbate the unemployment rates in the Euro zone for the foreseeable future. When do you think you'll see a turn-around for Germany? As the premier economy of the Euro zone, it seems what happens in Germany is very important for the whole zone.

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For Germany, I think, the center and the left is pro, the "righter" Christian Democrats and the right against it, as well as the extreme left.

The 'rightish' FDP (liberals) are pro, but want to have some changes.

The conservatives (Christian Democrat Union/Christian Social Union) are more against the constituion than pro.

The Social-Democrats are officially pro - I've my personal doubts about this beiing the majority of the member's opinion.

The Green - see above :wink:

All the other parties are neglectable, I think.

Public opinion: acting on instinct, 60+% pro.

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georgeob1 wrote:

I found Nimh's observation that support for the EU is greatest in the center of the political spectrum, and least at both left and right extremes, most interesting. Is that generally true? In France? Germany? Poland?

Its true in France. On the far left, Communists and Trotskyites are against the ("ultraliberal, antidemocratic, capitalist") European Constitution; on the far right, Jean-Marie Le Pen's nationalist Front National obviously is too. Its in the center that things get complicated, with the Europe issue having threatened to split both the Socialists on the left and the "Presidential Majority" on the right down the middle.

In the Socialist Party, the left-wing agitated against the constitution, which they saw as the legitimisation of the market-economy-driven, liberalised new Europe, while the center/right of the party was in favour. The issue was settled in a party-referendum recently (two or three months ago?), when the party members voted to support the constitution by some 55%. The Greens, which include both fierce proponents and opponents as well, are having their party-referendum on the matter in February (but I'm assuming those in favour will easily win it).

On the right, in Chirac's Presidential Majority (which is itself a coalition of parties), Bayrou's centrist UDF is strongly in favour, while the Gaullist RPR is formally strongly in favour as well, but does have a conservative-nationalist wing to grapple with that's hostile to the constitution, as it is to Turkey's accession to the EU that Chirac has been making his cause. De Villiers, dissident Gaullist on the right who has run his own lists in some elections, is also against.

So yes. From left to right: Trotskyites - against; Communists - against; left-wing of the Socialists - against; mainstream of Socialists - in favour; UDF - in favour; mainstream of Gaullists - in favour; right-wing of Gaullists - against; De Villiers - against; Front National - against.

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For France, the center and the right is pro, extreme right against it, as well as the extreme left.

The left (socialists) mainly pro but debating. (want to have some changes. )

The Green are divided.

Public opinion: acting on instinct, 60+% pro. (Thanks, Walter, for the mainframe)

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Francis wrote:

(Thanks, Walter, for the mainframe)

I've thought so - all derives from Carolus Magnus Laughing

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Doublechecking the Green position I found a neat rundown of the French parties' stance on Europe here; what's more, they have one for Denmark too.

Same pattern.

In Denmark, from left to right,

- the small, radical "United Left" is against (against the EU, period);
- the slightly larger Socialist People's Party is against;
- the Social-Democrats, long the dominant party in Danish politics, are in favour;
- the small Social-Liberal Party is in favour;
- the right-wing Liberal Party, now the country's largest, is in favour;
- the smaller Conservative People's Party is in favour;
- the small Christian Democrats are against;
- the far-right (and fairly large) Danish People's Party is against.

Denmark had a large anti-EU movement that impacted earlier referendums; the People's Movement Against the EU has netted a clear victory in a previous European election. Dominated by the populist right, but supported by the populist left as well, it left the more "technocratic" traditional parties in the middle with the EU banner.

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Here's the bit that won't surprise you:

60% of the UK....(according to a poll I heard about on the radio)....are against!

When will they learn? Rolling Eyes

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In the Czech Republic,

- the (unreformed) Communists, which have been winning ever more ground in elections the last few years (now up to 19%), are against the Constitution.

- So is President and former PM Vaclav Klaus, the figurehead of the right-wing Civic Democratic Party (CDP), which spearheaded the market reforms of the 90s and increasingly turned to an anti-European populism, tinged with xenophobia (25% in the last elections). ODS MEP's also largely voted against the constitution.

Strongly in favour however are the parties of the current government, which relies on a parliamentary majority of just the one vote:

- the Social-Democrats (30% in the last elections)

- and the Coalition (14% in the last elections), which consists of the Christian-Democratic Party and the Freedom Union, itself a merger of centrist liberals and CDP-moderates who split off from that party in the late 90s.

So again: the populist right and far-left against; the centre-left and moderate right in favour.

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An interesting note to make here is that, as a pro-European, one can of course lean back and say, see - all the reasonable people are with us, the opponents are (excepting the UK) mostly just supported by the radicals and populists from the fringes - nuff said. One can lean back and say, well, most all the government parties are in favour, they'll know how to push it through in the end. But there's a risk involved in all that.

If a backlash against the EU does come to swell or even sweep through Europe, one time or other, it might for the very same reason well take all the old parties with it - and it'd be the radical populists riding the crest of the wave.

Perhaps I'm overreacting; perhaps I see that risk looming overly large because of developments in my own country. I've now witnessed the ease with which the main "old" parties combusted twice, in '94 and 2002. And while in '94 it was such harmless centrists as the Parties for the Elderly and the Democrats with their referendum fetish that profited, in 2002 it was the right-wing populists that swept in. Could happen again, any moment.

Thats the problem. Its all very practical if the main government parties obediently roll through the EU machine, but if a backlash then does appear, it can all the more easily merge resentment against Europe, against "old politics" and technocrats, against the government, the elite ... At the risk of sounding apocalyptic, if the old parties do not succeed carrying through the EU dragnet, it might well take them down with it.

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You exactly espressed my thoughts, nimh - only much better.

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Some of these issues reflect the trade-offs with the parliamentary and proportional representation systems that exist in some European countries. We avoid them with the traditional two party & presidential system, but pay for it with parties that work hard to portray themselves as all things to all people. Still the differences do come through.

I believe the trump card in the hand of the pro EU parties is time. If they can delay or head off a premature decisive event, then time is generally on their side (or at least it has been thus so far.). I don't know how long that pattern can continue. Is there anything now on the table that is forcing a prompt resolution of the next round of choices?

Pete, do you think the 60% figure is an accurate assessment of British sentiment? My impression is that public support for the EU has generally improved a bit as the decisive moments & elections approach.

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I even think, 60% against in the UK is a rather low number Crying or Very sad

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

I even think, 60% against in the UK is a rather low number

Damn! What motivates it? Is this the British tradition of mistrusting dominamt continental powers, or are there other issues?

Another interesting, but perhaps remote, thing to consider is the relative speed with which the EU works with Ukraine and Turkey. There is historical rivalry and suspicion there, and the EU could find itself entangled in issues it didn't seek. This could be all the more risky if the EU adopts an anti-American policy.

FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

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