Bosnia faces another, predictable poll
As Bosnia's political parties gear up to campaign for October general elections, the electorate is in for more of the same ethnic opportunism that has held the country back for a decade after the war.
By Anes Alic in Sarajevo for ISN Security Watch (28/07/06)
As they have continued to do since the first post-war election in 1996, Bosnia's three main nationalist parties are preparing their well-rehearsed campaigns for October general elections, hoping to win votes by arousing divisive ethnic sentiments in the absence of any clear platform to move the country forward.
On 1 October, voters will elect the president and the parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as a new parliament for the Bosnian Croat- and Bosnian Muslim-dominated Federation entity. They will also choose a new president, vice-president and parliament in the Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska. [..]
A July survey [..] found that the Republika Srpska-based Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) remained the most popular party in the country, with 30.9 percent support. The moderate, multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party (SDP) came in second, though still far behind, with 13.9 percent [..].
Most disappointing, according to research from nongovernmental organizations [..], is the fact that out of 8,000 candidates competing for 500 positions [..], 80 percent [..] are figures who have been present in the political system since the war [..].
Opportunism over ideology
So far, the election campaign has been characterized by a mass shifting of allegiances, with politicians quitting their parties and moving to other parties that have no ideological similarities in an attempt to move further up on the party list to have a better chance of winning a seat in parliament.
[Parliament] jobs are relatively easy - with the international community making the bulk of the sensitive decisions - and salaries at six times the average national salary.
[O]f 450 of the top party list leaders, only 80 so far have not changed parties, while others have changed parties up to five times already. [..]
"The devastating thing is that there are no more young people with new ideas running in the elections," said [the spokesman for Transparency International in Bosnia].
The nationalist card - again
During the last elections in 2004 [..] only 45.52 percent turned out to vote, and observers estimate that only 7-10 percent of 18-30 year olds exercised their right to vote.
Starting with the first multi-party elections in 1990, most voters supported parties associated with their own ethnic group - the only notable exceptions being in places where Bosniaks were the majority in Sarajevo and Tuzla. Other Bosniak-dominated towns and villages were swept by the nationalist SDA.
However, in 2000 elections, the opposition alliance led by the moderate Sarajevo-based SDP took power from the SDA - only to lose it again two years later after failing to satisfy ethnic needs, especially those of refugees and war veterans [..].
Bosnian Serb voters have generally gravitated to the nationalist Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) set up by Radovan Karadzic, Europe's most wanted war crimes indictee. Since 1997, two more moderate parties, the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) and the SNSD - both of which have more credibility in the eyes of the international community but still manage to manipulate ethnic and religious sentiments - have stolen the SDS' top seat.
Ethnic Croats, particularly those in western Herzegovina, tend to support the nationalist Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), but recently, Bosnian Croats nationalist parties like the New Croatian Initiative (NHI) and the recently formed HDZ 1990-Croat Unity (comprised of former HDZ officials) have become stronger.
More disappointment for Bosnia
[..] Even a month before the election campaign is slated to start, the tactics of the three main nationalist parties are clear [..].
Bosnian Serb parties have already begun collecting votes using the May referendum in Montenegro as a justification. [..] Right after Montenegro's independence referendum, SNSD leader and Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik suggested that a similar referendum be held in the Serb-dominated Bosnian entity. [..]
According to a June opinion poll conducted in Republika Srpska, 40 percent of Bosnian Serbs there fully agreed [..], while 22.3 percent of "mostly" agreed with the idea of secession.
However, the international community has rejected such idea, saying that unlike Montenegro, Republika Srpska, which was created during the war, had never been an independent republic and that splitting the Bosnia and Herzegovina was out of question. [..]
Meanwhile, Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats look set on focusing their campaign on their differences over [..] proposed constitutional changes rather than offering the electorate any plan for reform, development or European integration. [..]
Broken promises
In past elections, parties have promised higher living standards, economic reform, EU integration, more employment and a number of other things political parties tend to promise the world over. None of those promises have been met [..], and they are often quickly shoved under the rug in the face of everlasting ethnic power struggles that exist mostly in the minds of the politicians and not the electorate.
Furthermore, almost all reforms made by Bosnian authorities since the war have been pushed through under immense pressure and supervision from the international community, led by the Office of the High Representative (OHR).
As such, citizens and nongovernmental organizations view the OHR's decision to close its mission down by June next year as very premature.
For the past 11 years, the OHR has been the top agency for implementing the civilian aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement, passing dozens of key laws that Bosnian authorities could not agree on, suspending hundreds of reform obstructing politicians, and punishing those funding the fugitive lifestyles of wanted war criminals.
Despite the clear lack of progress on the part of Bosnian authorities, the OHR itself believes that the country has made enough progress to continue on its own, and that Bosnian authorities have to take responsibility. [..]
