HEZBOLLAH AND ISRAEL WIDEN THE CONFLICT

You're welcome, matey boy.

Plenty more for the general reader, whole article at

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1824517,00.html

Syria and Jordan are this morning (after nine days) calling for a ceasefire, but Hizbollah has only fired about 1000 of the 10,000 Katyusha
rockets that they have so don't bet on anything stopping today.

Joe

The Israel government doesnt mind a few incoming Katuyskya rockets. But what they really want is a Syrian or Iranian missile as a pretext for the Americans to attack Damascus and Tehran. This whole thing is making me sick.

McT...did you hear Netanyahu on radio 4 this morning?

America in Iraq and Israel in Lebanon. This is what I call the mass production of terrorist.

If George Bush thinks he's fighting a war against terrorism he is going about it in the most incompetent manner possible.

If Finn wants to claim that the PLO created Hezbollah, fine. However that does not change the dynamics of the situation. The PLO ended up in the Lebanon because they were expelled from Jordan. They were only in Jordan to begin with because in the wake of the 1967 war, Israel practiced ethnic cleansing and drove the Palestinians out of the west bank of the Jordan River. Many of the Palestinians in Gaza joined their people in Jordan, rather than become exiles in a hostile Egypt. If you want to claim that that PLO created Hezbollah, then you'll have the deal with the historical facts which account for the PLO being in the Lebanon in the first place.

If i only relied upon Wikipedia, though, i'd be as ignorant of history as Finn appears to be.

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O'Bill, Israel can get up from the bed it has made, and about which it whines over the necessity to lie in, any time they wish to engage in constructive engagement. Syria entered the Lebanon at the invitation of the President of the Lebanese Republic--blackmailed, in fact, by a Maronite-dominated government which told Assad that the economic health of Syria was dependant upon trade with and through the Lebanon. Being pragmatic, Assad agreed. The nascent civil war in the Lebanon then ended. Israel restarted the civil war with their 1978 invasion. That civil war raged for 15 years. At the end, in 1989, all parties in the Lebanon finally agreed to disarm the militias, contingent upon the withdrawl of Israel and Syria. Syria withdrew, finally, and Israel almost withdrew. But Israel held onto a strip of southern Lebanon, and it held onto Hezbollah and other Lebanese Muslim prisoners.

But Hezbollah was unwilling to disarm, and linked that to the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons, and the return of the territory in southern Lebanon which Israel had not evacuated. Now, Syria has been negotiating with Syria about the return of that strip of land to the Lebanon. This is the first time since 1967 that Syria has been willing to negotiate anything without first discussing the Golan Heights which Israel has held since 1967. Some international observers believe that there are secret protocols agreed to discuss the return of the Golan Heights--but they are guessing, base upon Syria's constant insistance for nearly 40 years that the Golan Heights be the first item on any negotiation agenda.

Very likely, these talks are what motivated Hezbollah to make the kidnapping attempt. They've tried this before, and failed. Their object is to get leverage to negotiate the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons. Iran has drastically reduced their support for Hezbollah, and has quietly been disengaging from the Lebanon. All the signs suggest that Hezbollah is acting alone, and not being manipuated by puppet-masters in Damascus or Teheran. As has been pointed out by others in this thread, Israel has cut prisoner-exchange deals in the past, and has traded territory seized in military operations for peace with her neighbors. She could do this again. However, the current government seems to think that they can destroy Hezbollah, and has openly stated now that this is their intent. Fifteen years of civil war in the Lebanon failed to destroy the PLO, and in the end, Israel was forced to negotiate, and to not only release prisoners, but to allow the return of the Palestinians and of Yasir Arafat, their biggest bête noire while he lived.

Exactly the same thing could be accomplished with Hezbollah. If the Lebanese prisoners (not nearly all of whom were ever members of Hezbollah) were released, and Lebanese territory restored, not only would Israel have engaged in good-faith, constructive engagement which would satisfy Syria and improve her diplomatic capital in the world, she will have driven Hezbollah into a corner. Hezbollah claims to speak for the more than 1.5 million Shi'ites in the Lebanon, but they don't even come close to winning even a quarter of Shi'ite votes in elections. The Lebanese, and the majority of Shi'ites included, want Hezbollah to disarm. The fastest way to at least emasculate Hezbollah, if not destroy them outright, would be to negotiate in good faith to return Lebanese territory, and exchange prisoners. The fastest way to build Lebanese support for Hezbollah will be to continue to do what they are doing right now--attacking the Lebanon indiscriminately.

Rant how one will about the "terrorists" in the Lebanon, Israel's policy is stupid and self-defeating.

Se

Please go further and expound on this. It runs contrary to commonly-accpeted premises.

And BTW, what is behind the difference in spelling: Hezbollah and Hizbollah.?

And also BTW, I don't believe that Finn was being serious when he wrote that the PLO created Hezbollah.

Shoot. Lost the top half of that post. Will have to reconstruct.

I thought Israel did withdraw.


Set,

We don't know what the intentions/strtategies are, of either of the two parties. Or four or five, if you count Syria, Iran, and the US. We can only speculate.

I don't think that Israel believes that it can actually destory Hezbollah, but only seriously weaken it, to buy some time and stop them from firing rockets at them in the near term.

But perhaps Israel misanticipated the consequences: hoping that the Lebanese would turn on Hezbollah as the perceived cause of their misery. Not a totally illogical idea, but it doesn't appear to be happening in a fairly significant segment of the Lebanese population. Perhaps, over time, the emotions will subside and that position will moderate.

Maybe the Israelis plan on a prisoner exchange, and even territory (Golan Heights?) as part of the deal, but not until Part I has been accomplished, and something formal is out there on the international stage.

But Steve, I'm not comfortable with your idea that this is all part of a Plan B to draw the US into overt action action Syria and/or Iran. It isn't inconceivable, I just don't see it.

I'm not comfortable with it either, I just fear that is whats going to happen. Its not my plan btw.

BBB
Setanta, thanks for starting this thread. Once again I find out how smart you are. (Because we agree with each other. :wink: ) If only more people studied the history of the Middle East, especially political leaders of countries around the world, the core problems could be solved instead of engaging in only military action, which have always failed.

I am so disgusted with Israel---once again. Israel is repeating the same mistakes it has made over and over again during the last fifty years. When will Israel stop trying to solve Middle East problems using military solutions? When will Israel learn the problem is political, not military? When will Israel stop focusing only on security and start focusing on solving the core problems? It will never achieve security until it works to solve the core problems.

Many times, I've discussed Israel's history of military actions with my many close Jewish friends (before I moved from California.) Most of them are liberal Jews, who love Israel, but deplore it's actions under the ultra conservative Likud Party. I was discouraged when a Jewish terrorist killed Israel's Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin, on November 4, 1995. I considered Rabin to be Israel's last hope to achieve political, not military solutions.

I used to sympathize with Israel's security problems, but no longer without questioning it's wisdom. I'm sad because Israel, a country whose creation I've always supported, has become a military bully because it has the unconditional support in money and weapons from the United States. It's not true that Israel can do no wrong.

My anger at Israel's behavior in Lebanon does not excuse the actions of the terrorists who attack it. They, too, are using violence to try to solve problems that require political solutions. To many powerful nations are using surrogates to fight their battles: Iran, Syria, and the United States.

It's time we stopped buying Israel's spin with regard to Lebanon and realize it has destroyed a country, again, just because it can. It won't solve the problems. It never has because Israel does not learn from it's mistakes in the past.

One thing I know for sure. Terrorists do not make good governments. They may be expert at fighting, but they are terrible government administrators. We have so many examples of terrorist governments failures. Usually, the failure is due to their inability to establish the public institutions required to establish the rule of law. They only know how to retain their power, not to improve the conditions of their citizens.

I've rambled on emotionally long enough. I'm really distressed at the events in Lebanon. But I want to add one aside. I'm so ashamed of some of the Americans being evacuated from Lebanon. Watching American students on CNN really disgusted me. Several students who were being rescued by a Greek Freighter---a freighter, keep in mind---which happened to be the closest ship to Lebanon and came to help get people out of harms way, really embarrassed me. They were complaining about the lack of rooms and lacks of chairs to sit on during their trip to Cyprus, as if a freighter was a cruise ship. They complained they had to sit on the ship's deck and it was hot and there were flies. They complained because they were not given food. What a bunch of whiny spoiled brats they appeared to be.

I guess you can tell I'm really pissed at the idiots in this world.

BBB

Yeah, i kinda gathered that . . . i heard a similar story on CBC about Canadians who arrived on Cyprus complaining that they hadn't been fed, and the vessel was not air-conditioned.

That complaining is absolutely infuriating. They KNOW how could they have it, to be able to get out. The nerve of those people.

No, but that's one dude I don't rate too highly.

Re: BBB


Hey, who'da guessed ... I agree with BBB on something.

A reliable source tells me that the reason the United States has been so slow in evacuating its citizens from Lebanon is that the public diplomacy (i.e., P.R.) issues raised by evacuating under Israeli assault are so complicated. Individuals within the State Department, I am told, have been reluctant to create an impression that the Israeli assault on Lebanon is as bad as it is or that civilian U.S. citizens are being threatened by U.S. ally Israel. If a conflict this severe had broken out in, say, Indonesia, the American embassy would have been shut down the next day and its personnel and families rapidly brought to safety. That's how things normally work.

Since posts have a tendancy to degenerate into quibbling over side issues, i thought i'd clarify my position, and to point out that i've kept my personal opinion separate from news reports which i have posted. I appreciate that people post both news reports and opinion pieces, and ask that they provide links, and that they give notice of opinion pieces, when that is what they post.

I consider that Israel is in large measure responsible for the situation in which it finds itself. Although it is certainly the right of any nation to defend itself, Israel has responded to an attack on members of its armed forces with greatly disproportionate force, which has punished the civilian population of the Lebanon for a situation which they did not create, and could not have prevented. I consider that Israel desparate wants to create in the "mind" of American public opinion the impression that puppet masters in Damascus and Teheran are responsible for Hezbollah's actions--i don't believe that to be true. Certainly i don't contend that Israel engineered the situation, but Hezbollah has attacked and attempted to seize IDF personnel in the past, and Israel has not responded in this manner. I consider that they are attempting to exploit this situation, and part of the evidence is their immeidately taking the public position that the Lebanon was responsible for an act of war against Israel.

What worries me most, after the consideration of the horrible and unnecessary suffering brought about by Israel's reaction to both Hamas and Hezbollah, is that these incidents might successfully be used to justify more American military adventurism against Syria or Iran.

There are said to be (often reported by CBC) 50,000 Canadian citizens in the Lebanon--many have dual citizenship, and many fled to Canada during the civil war of the 1970s and -80s, and then returned after the Syrian withdrawl. Now, with charges of incompetence being level at the government in the midst of chaotic evacuation efforts, the Prime Minister, Steven Harper, has flown to Cyprus. He was in Europe, and flew to the island to bring out evacuees in the Canadian Forces aircraft he had been travelling in.


Harper arrives in CyprusStory at The Toronto Globe and Mail

Yes, I'm pretty sure i heard George W saying today he planned to do the same or perhaps send Condi in his stead. George seems to always want to be in the forefront with people facing disaster.