sozobe
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:28 pm
Sorry about your loss, Lola.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:30 pm
Sorry to hear about your mother.

I think that Clinton should drop out once it becomes apparent that she will not be able to close the delegate gap. It's the math that matters, see; her campaign can't keep taking money and trucking along, in good faith, when she is so far behind that there is no realistic chance of her catching up and winning this thing.

Now, she may win delegates tomorrow night, big time, and keep on going; she may tie and keep on going. It's quite hard to see her losing delegates and keeping going. It would be a real stretch of the imagination to see her coming back from a bigger deficit then she currently has.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:30 pm
J, Sorry about your loss. My sympathaties to you.
0 Replies
 
Ethel2
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:32 pm
sozobe wrote:
Sorry about your loss, Lola.


Thanks, Soz......she had a good long life and had an influence on many people. We were all there with her when she died. What more can a person ask for in a lifetime?
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:33 pm
sozobe wrote:
She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.


Under what scenario does Obama secure the number of delegates to outright lock in the nomination?

You and other Obama supporters are assuming that if he is in the lead when the convention comes around,it's all over. Why? Why have a magic number if it doesn't mean anything?

Your Party has created these rules, and you want to ignore them because your guy is in the lead. Understandable --- I'd be there with you if I was an Obama supporter, but I'd like to think I wouldn't get the self-righteous ass if Hillary didn't see it my way and refused to concede.

Not to say that you personally have a problem with her not conceding but there is a sense of same out there
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:39 pm
Finn dAbuzz wrote:
sozobe wrote:
She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.


Under what scenario does Obama secure the number of delegates to outright lock in the nomination?

You and other Obama supporters are assuming that if he is in the lead when the convention comes around,it's all over. Why? Why have a magic number if it doesn't mean anything?

Your Party has created these rules, and you want to ignore them because your guy is in the lead. Understandable --- I'd be there with you if I was an Obama supporter, but I'd like to think I wouldn't get the self-righteous ass if Hillary didn't see it my way and refused to concede.

Not to say that you personally have a problem with her not conceding but there is a sense of same out there


There comes a certain point when Obama's lead is big enough, that Clinton would have to win by truly huge margins in the remaining contests in order to win the number of pledged delegates necessary to TIE Obama, let alone defeat him outright.

It's true that both campaigns need Superdelegate support to win. It's pretty much evident at this point that the outstanding super-delegates are waiting to see if someone can build a lead which is mathematically close to impossible to catch up in the remaining time period; and many of them will probably endorse when that point is reached.

As things stand right now, if EVERYTHING which is left, is split down the middle, Obama has enough delegates to win. Clinton does not. If Clinton wins by 5-10% in every contest left, she STILL cannot overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead, though he wouldn't be able to win on the first ballot. She has to win by large margins in order to truly overcome him, and it's hard to see the Superdelegates putting forward the candidate with less overall pledged delegates; it would be a party-splitting thing, big time, and while I know you crave that scenario, odds are it isn't going to happen.

If Clinton falls farther behind tomorrow, then it becomes ever so much harder for her to catch up. She needs to catch up some tomorrow or it is difficult to see her winning.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:43 pm
Yeah, I've been reading words like "landslide" and "big wins" for Hillary to have any chance at this point. A ten percent lead isn't gonna cut it IMHO.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:44 pm
I'm glad that you were all able to be with her at the end, Lola.



Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Under what scenario does Obama secure the number of delegates to outright lock in the nomination?


There are lots of scenarios in which he does increasingly better as the primaries wear on and as people increasingly want to bring the process to a close. If he becomes the prohibitive front-runner, superdelegates (undeclared and formerly in the Hillary column) could make it known that they will be supporting him, putting him over the top.

Quote:
You and other Obama supporters are assuming that if he is in the lead when the convention comes around,it's all over. Why? Why have a magic number if it doesn't mean anything?


The number just means that's it, the automatic number has been reached and nothing more needs to be done. If it's less than that number, then other elements come in -- like superdelegates.

That's where announcements like Richardson's become important.

Quote:
Your Party has created these rules, and you want to ignore them because your guy is in the lead. Understandable --- I'd be there with you if I was an Obama supporter, but I'd like to think I wouldn't get the self-righteous ass if Hillary didn't see it my way and refused to concede.

Not to say that you personally have a problem with her not conceding but there is a sense of same out there


I don't have a problem with her not conceding now. I may or may not have a problem as of Wednesday morning.

If at that point she has a "chance" but a vanishingly small one, I do think she should concede. There is just too much of an advantage ceded to the Republicans if the Democratic front-runner has to compete on two fronts -- against his Democratic opponent and also his Republican opponent.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:50 pm
Lola wrote:
And how many lawmakers did block him at the time? Since most of them didn't, does that make them all unsuitable to handle their lawmaker responsibilities?

I wrote that it was "every lawmaker's obligation to block him from getting a freer hand still to do so," and absof*ckinglutely yes they failed that obligation. And it's an error major enough to disqualify someone for the Presidency, unless maybe if they recognized and acknowledged their fault long before running.

The Democrats in Congress in those days were a disgrace, overall. Too many of them let themselves be whipped ino inimidation by the Bush administration's blowhards, and/or were slaves to political expedience. I think you actually agreed with me on that back then (how soon we forget).

Across Europe, Latin America and the rest of the world, social-democrats, greens, even conservatives realised at the time that Bush was haranguing for war, and using false pretenses. It wasnt that hard to realise. Millions of us testified so at demonstrations. I'm sure you were there too.

A majority of the Congressional Democrats, on the other hand, failed the test. But even among the Congressional Democrats, it's hardly like everyone voted like Hillary did. A sizable minority opposed the authorisation, and it included many Democratic luminaries.

Barbara Boxer voted nay. Lincoln Chafee voted nay, and he was a Republican! Talking of Republicans, Jim Jeffords, formerly Republican, voted nay too. Robert Byrd voted nay. Jon Corzine voted nay. Carl Levin voted nay. Ted Kennedy voted nay. Leahy voted nay. So did Feingold, and Durbin. And Bob Graham. Paul Wellstone. Debbie Stabenow.

They passed the test. It wasnt that hard.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 06:59 pm
sozobe wrote:
She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.


Under what scenario does Obama secure the number of delegates to outright lock in the nomination?

You and other Obama supporters are assuming that if he is in the lead when the convention comes around,it's all over. Why? Why have a magic number if it doesn't mean anything?

Your Party has created these rules, and you want to ignore them because your guy is in the lead. Understandable --- I'd be there with you if I was an Obama supporter, but I'd like to think I wouldn't get the self-righteous ass if Hillary didn't see it my way and refused to concede.

Not to say that you personally have a problem with her not conceding but there is a sense of same out there
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:00 pm
I responded back here, Finn...

http://www.able2know.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=3126746#3126746
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:04 pm
Lola wrote:
My mother, before her death last week, used to say that she didn't need to watch the weather reports..........if she just waited, she would find out soon enough.

I'm sorry to hear about your mother. One of the hardest losses in life. It does sound like she was a wise woman.. <smiles>

Wishing you the best at this difficult moment.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:06 pm
Perhaps you will all collapse into a confused boredom at some point.

It happened to me many years ago.

Al Gore's the man. I know I'm on him at 40 to 1 but that doesn't influence my views.

He's on the moral high ground. I just don't believe that a nation I have admired so long would put its greed and selfishness above saving the planet.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:08 pm
spendius wrote:
Perhaps you will all collapse into a confused boredom at some point.

Depends on how many Spendius posts we'll come across on the way :wink:
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:11 pm
(i am sorry to hear, Lola, of the loss of your mom. 96. 1912-2008. What an incredible time in the world. WW1, the war to end all wars, the depression. WW2, the post war boom and the growth of suburbia, the civil rights movement, Vietnam, rock and roll after talkies in the movies, television, even radio invented and, towards the end of her life, personal computer. A pretty amazing near century for your mom). -rjb-
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:15 pm
For God's sake, Lola. She'll quit when she's convinced she won't win. No one is going to have to drum her out of anywhere... though SNL may have some fun with it (like with Huckabee). 150 is VERY significant when you consider she had a similar lead before Super Tuesday that had to evaporate before Obama could even begin building his. Now here he is, 11 unanswered wins later, a 5 to 1 favorite to win the nomination (and the odds on favorite to win the Presidency for that matter), but you don't believe his lead amounts to even "quite a bit"?

Don't worry. I know precisely how you feel. Every pre-season when asked who's going to win the Superbowl this year; I boldly, clearly, and enthusiastically answer, "The Green Bay Packers". You should already be a proud Female Boomer. Runner up to the most powerful office in the world is nothing to be ashamed of. I have little doubt you made your contributions along the way and your sour grapes are quite understandable. You really should try to avoid snapping at people for arguing the simple truth. Ebrown's post looked pretty spot on, and required no wishful thinking to recognize it. I would agree that counting her out is pre-mature, but no more ludicrous than denying her obvious and growing deficit.

Quite sorry to hear about your mum. Been there, feel that and it sucks.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:16 pm
It's nothing to what the next century will bring.

It can't even be imagined.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:16 pm
sozobe wrote:
She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.


Sure it's unlikely. I've already resigned myself to as much.

That does not mean that she should drop out of the race.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:18 pm
It's up to Hillary to throw in the towel; I don't she's going to after tomorrow, no matter what the outcome.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 3 Mar, 2008 07:19 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:

I AM insulted, and you're an a$$hole.


Don't care. And, exactly as predicted, you won't post any data.

maporsche wrote:
The ACTUAL DATA is that she's not mathematically out of it.

That was all that I said.


You are correct. She could win 100% of the vote in many of the remaining contests and see the SD's swoon and fall into her lap. It would be magical.

I'll stick with realistic projections of what's going to happen, thanks.

Cycloptichorn



My statement was that she could still win with enough superdelegate support. The SDs could swing either way. I do not need to post any data to prove that fact (I could, but to do so would be a waste of my time since 1) I'm right, and 2) you're the only one who seems to want to argue this small point).
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

So....Will Biden Be VP? - Question by blueveinedthrobber
My view on Obama - Discussion by McGentrix
Obama/ Love Him or Hate Him, We've Got Him - Discussion by Phoenix32890
Obama fumbles at Faith Forum - Discussion by slkshock7
Expert: Obama is not the antichrist - Discussion by joefromchicago
Obama's State of the Union - Discussion by maxdancona
Obama 2012? - Discussion by snood
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Obama '08?
  3. » Page 570
Copyright © 2025 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 07/14/2025 at 05:30:27