Finn dAbuzz wrote:Butrflynet wrote:I still think the best solution for everyone all around is to have Florida and Michigan have caucuses for a vote redo after both candidates have had a specified time to campaign in both states and have those results go as official results to the convention.
This would be a good solution for Obama because he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. His campaign has strengthened since the FL and MI primaries were held and if a do-over took place in the context of a convention stalemate, the voters in these two states would be unduly influenced to cast their votes in a way that would get the mess out of the way.
I don't see Hillary ever agreeing to this and I wouldn't blame her. She had the foresight to get her name on the MI ballot, I presume Obama could have as well. She has everything to lose and nothing to gain.
It's the same thinking behind Obama not wanting to engage in any more debates with Clinton.
My first preference is that they not be counted at all since those were the rules everyone, including Hillary, agreed to.
My second preference is a caucus. Why? Because it deals with the constitutional problem of one person-one vote and avoids having to also deal with the vote-by-mail people who want to change their votes because their candidate withdrew from the race between the time they cast their votes and the deadline for those votes on Super Tuesday.
If another primary vote will help settle all these various disputes so we can heal all the wounds and fix this convoluted election process, that's cool too.
Michigan Dems back in running
by Ted Roelofs | The Grand Rapids Press
Sunday February 10, 2008, 6:52 AM
Michigan Democrats are in a bind.
They wanted all eyes on Michigan by moving the presidential primary to Jan. 15 -- which turned out to be a bust, since only Sen. Hillary Clinton stayed on the ballot among the contenders. The national committee heaped on humiliation by stripping the state of delegates for breaking party rules.
Everyone from Sen. Carl Levin to Democratic chairman Mark Brewer assumed the party would get the delegates back in a goodwill gesture by the August convention.
Well, the eyes are back on Michigan -- but not for the reasons they wanted.
The historic contest between Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama is closer than most imagined. And if the disputed delegation is seated in a deadlocked convention, Michigan's pseudo-primary could be the tipping point for either contender.
That could set up a virtual food fight over the state's 128 pledged delegates, starting with calls for an extraordinary "do-over" solution: a caucus, to settle things fair and square between Obama and Clinton.
But that could be just as dicey as seating the delegation. Clinton won the primary, with 55 percent of voters, while 40 percent chose "uncommitted."
The state party on Friday duly allocated 73 pledged delegates to Clinton and designated 55 as uncommitted.
If those delegates are restored -- as Clinton desires -- it could make a difference while things stay as tight as they are now.
But Obama backers prefer the Democratic National Committee's suggestion of a second contest, thinking their man could win with a chance to campaign here.
Brewer says only that the delegation needs to be seated, "regardless of whether the nomination is up for grabs."
Lansing political analyst Ed Sarpolus said a caucus might further muddy the waters.
"If you get a different winner, Hillary will cry foul. Caucuses are controlled events that get their people there in busloads to win," said Sarpolus, vice president of polling firm EPIC/MRA.
Says Sarpolus: "Michigan tends to get itself in trouble. That's not unusual. It's just that it's on the front page of the newspaper."
Still, Obama backer Mary Alice Williams, of Grand Rapids, would prefer a second contest to the prospect of a nasty fight at the convention.
"It's almost becoming a necessary way out of this thing," Williams said. "It is in the best interest of both candidates to make the process look as legitimate as possible."
Former Kent County Democratic Chairwoman Lupe Ramos-Montigny, a Clinton backer, is just fine with seating the delegation as is.
"All the candidates had the opportunity to stay on the ballot," she said. "That was their choice to remove their names ... It was a risk for Hillary. When you are running for president, you have to take risks and be tough."
Unexpectedly unsettled
Last week's Super Tuesday showdown was supposed to settle things between Obama and Clinton. But they remain locked in a near-tie.
That's where Michigan and the prospect for back-room deals could come into play.
"I don't know how many people understand how this works," said Sue Levy, chairwoman of the Kent County Democratic Party.
Florida also started the mischief by moving its primary to Jan. 29 and, like Michigan, it was stripped of delegates. The national party also pressured the candidates not to compete in either state. In Florida, however, all the names stayed on the ballot, and Clinton got 50 percent to Obama's 33 percent.
So there could be two, if not three battles, involving Michigan's delegates -- the 128 pledged, plus 28 superdelegates, who are elected officials and party activists free to support any candidate.
The first battle would be over seating the delegation in the first place.
If the nomination is still up for grabs in August, said Tad Devine, an expert on the party's nominating process, seating the delegates will trigger "the mother of all credential challenges."
Analysts like NBC's Tim Russert predict wholesale revolt by black voters loyal to Obama if restoring Michigan and Florida's delegation gives the nomination to Clinton.
Gov. Jennifer Granholm -- a Clinton backer -- remains committed to getting the delegation seated and having the votes in the Jan. 15 primary count.
"We believe that the votes that have been cast have to be respected," spokeswoman Liz Boyd said.
The decision rests with the party's credentials committee, a 186-member body consisting of 25 DNC appointees, with the remainder apportioned by the primary results. Its decision would have to be ratified by the full convention.
If the delegation is seated, expect a second fight over the 55 uncommitted delegates. They are officially free to support any candidate but would be under to enormous pressure to back Obama.
If neither candidate has a majority by then, expect a third, convention-wide battle over the superdelegates, who comprise about 20 percent of the total delegates awarded.
Beyond Michigan and Florida, they could hold the nomination in their grasp. Michigan's super delegates include Granholm, Levin and fellow Sen. Debbie Stabenow, six members of Congress, 17 state members of the Democratic National Committee and two members to be chosen in May. There are no DNC members from west of Lansing.
Obama backer Williams fears the party risks long-term damage if the equivalence of a smoke-filled room chooses the nominee.
"The Michigan Democratic Party and DNC has really painted itself into a corner and it's going to be difficult coming to a decision.
"You don't want more Americans to become cynical about the democratic process."
