Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 01:47 am
maporsche wrote:
Miller wrote:
Quote:
If people don't want to pay, how are we going to punish them, or get the money from them?


Follow the Massachusets Plan and fine them.



Easy pleasy!


Have fun selling this to the public as well. It's not particularly popular at the moment in MA.

And let's not forget the x-factor in all this - the galvanized right wing is going to fight both plans tooth and nail. If our leadership has no ability to work with the other team then we will not pass any health care reform. Nobody doubts that Obama would be better at this.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 01:58 am
If it were not already 2:00am where I live, I would love to continue this.

Later today then...
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 01:59 am
maporsche wrote:
If it were not already 2:00am where I live, I would love to continue this.

Later today then...


Cheers. At the end of the day, we will both win when a Dem is in the WH. During the heated primary time it's hard to keep that in the front of the mind.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 02:05 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:
maporsche wrote:
If it were not already 2:00am where I live, I would love to continue this.

Later today then...


Cheers. At the end of the day, we will both win when a Dem is in the WH. During the heated primary time it's hard to keep that in the front of the mind.

Cycloptichorn


What's that I hear?

Footsteps?

Oh, good morning Ralph. You running again?

http://newsblaze.com/story/20080201192501tsop.nb/newsblaze/TOPSTORY/Top-Stories.html
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 07:45 am
My overall take:

I want to delve back into the details and remember why I'm fine with Obama's plan. That's how I characterized it once I had researched to my satisfaction -- not "this is GREAT!!!!" but "That makes sense. This is fine, this isn't a deal-breaker."

But from what people have been saying here and from what is at the forefront of my brain:

Do you remember Hillary's "nibbled to death" line from the debate? I think both are expecting that the plans they have proposed will be adjusted a great deal before they are actually implemented. This is just a starting point.

Mandates are unpopular (see Foxfyre's post). People hate the idea of being forced to do something new by the government. It's difficult to pass that kind of a plan.

Hillary, I think, wants to start where she is and expects to have to give up a lot on the way to passage. Obama, I think, wants to start with a passable plan.

Here's the line:

Quote:
Hillary: And what I've concluded, when I was looking at this -- because I got the same kind of advice, which was, it's controversial, you'll run into all of this buzz saw, and I said, been there, done that. But if you don't
start by saying, you're going to achieve universal health care, you will be nibbled to death.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 07:48 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:
maporsche wrote:
They only get back-charged if they show up looking for free health care at the hospital or emergency room.

If they don't show up, they don't pay anything into the system and they take nothing out of it. If they show up and pay their own bills, they don't pay into the system and they take nothing out of it.

When you are mandated to pay, you pay every day of your life no matter what.

It is plainly obvious that there is a difference. Obama is right; people shouldn't expect something for nothing. But they have every right to expect nothing for nothing.

1) People who show up in emergency rooms uninsured get something for paying a lot more than what they get. In everything but name, that's a penalty enforcing a mandate! By misrepresenting the content of his actual plan in a public debate, Obama is trying to have it both ways: To make any universal health care plan work -- including his universal healthcare plan, it takes a mandate. To position yourself as a candidate who transcends partisanship, mandates are a hard sell. On the national level, Republican ideology is fiercely opposed to universal healthcare, so every effort to introduce it is inevitably partisan. Consequently, Obama has a healthcare plan without mandates, but claims in public debates that his going to impose mandates, except that he doesn't call them that. He doesn't say he changed his plan, he just sells it as something that it isn't. Kind of similar to the way Hillary Clinton sells her approach to Iraq. Not evil, but still cowardly and insincere.

2) How, in your opinion, will Obama handle people who don't show up in emergency rooms, but try to sign up for the system after their health deteriorates? Let's take a practical example. It's the year 2025. A diabetic signs up to the system, and within months it turns out he needs dialysis, which in 2008 costs about $70,000 a year. The diabetic could have signed up for the the National Healthcare Plan when it was first installed in 2015 He would have received $200 worth of medication for free, which would have prevented the dialysis. But he didn't. He was too stingy to even get a blood picture taken for $20 to find out if he had diabetes in the first place. Only now, when his symptoms are severe (but not yet severe enough for the emergency room), the patient decides he needs health insurance.

How do you think the Obama plan will handle this?
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 07:52 am
I'm currently looking up resources and stuff, but if we're talking that kind of long-term, doesn't Obama's plan include shifting over to mandates AFTER costs go down?
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 07:57 am
Here's something:

From a discussion with Obama health care advisor David Cutler (questions are in italics):

Quote:
You can enroll them," Cutler replied, "and then forcibly collect the premiums. That's one way to solve the problem. But it's not necessary to do that."

"A better approach is to do everything possible to make it affordable and available. When it is, almost everyone will have it."

There are a couple of concerns about that approach. One is the problem of "adverse selection." Sicker people - or people with a greater likelihood of becoming sick - will enroll. That will drive plan costs up, making it prohibitively expensive.

"Let's look at the level of coverage you can get without a mandate. Our estimates, based on studies in the literature, is that we can get 98% or 99% coverage without a mandate for adults. There may be some small pockets of people who choose not to buy it."

What about those people?

"If there are free riders, Obama is open to mandates.Would mandates be considered at that point?

"He hasn't ruled anything out. It's a matter of priorities. The fact is, the policy differences on the mandate issue aren't that large at all. Sen. Obama believes they're an option down the road, if other approaches don't work."


http://sentineleffect.wordpress.com/2007/12/01/health-mandates-a-talk-with-obama-health-advisor-david-cutler/
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:01 am
One excerpt from an article called "Why Krugman is Wrong About Health Mandates":

Quote:
Mr. Krugman raises some valid concerns here. But what he doesn't say is that this would only be a temporary problem under the Obama plan. If it failed to achieve enrollment rates high enough to offset this 'selection effort,' other measures would be used - including potentially mandates.

The main difference between Obama's plan and his rivals' is this: They would mandate health coverage first and fix cost problems later. Obama would do the opposite. While both approaches are problematic, there is a strong case to be made that Obama's plan is fairer - and much more politically progressive.


http://sentineleffect.wordpress.com/2007/12/01/why-paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-health-mandates/
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:06 am
sozobe wrote:
I'm currently looking up resources and stuff, but if we're talking that kind of long-term, doesn't Obama's plan include shifting over to mandates AFTER costs go down?

Perhaps he is saying that in interviews (I haven't heard him say it, but then I haven't listened to every Obama interview.) But I'm not seing it in his plan. I'll be happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, as always.

But even that wouldn't save him. Let's suppose I was wrong, and that his plan does contain a "mandates later" provision. How do you explain then, that his campaign sends flyers out that attack Clinton's progam for its mandates? And, for style points, attack it with practically the same ad the health insurance lobby used to shoot down Bill Clinton's healthcare plan in 1994? This is bad!

(You posted before I could correct a quote I messed up. The quote was by Cycloptichorn.)
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:10 am
The key difference seems to be the order.

Hillary: Mandate, then lower costs. People who don't want to buy insurance will be legally required to buy it anyway.

Obama: Lower costs, then see if people game the system. If they don't -- if once it's affordable, they buy it -- that's that. If too much gaming is happening, then have mandates, but after costs have been lowered.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:16 am
sozobe wrote:
Obama: Lower costs, then see if people game the system. If they don't -- if once it's affordable, they buy it -- that's that. If too much gaming is happening, then have mandates, but after costs have been lowered.

Where is his plan saying this? Not "in my opinion" statements by his surrogates. Not speeches that may opportunistically spin the facts about the plan to ward of Clinton and Edwards? I'm talking about the actual plan.

And where is the asterisk in his flyer, linking to a disclaimer like the following? "Actually, Obama will force everyone to buy insurance, too. But only later, and only if he determines there has been too much abuse."

Okay, I admit it, that was a rhetorical-ish question. Smile
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:20 am
PS: I'm not arguing that Obama's plan is a show-stopper either. It isn't. I'm sure it would significantly improve on the status quo. But this question is not before us. The question before us is which one of two non-showstopper plans, Clinton's and Obama's, is better.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:26 am
snood wrote:
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2008-02-01-Picture2.png

How very Socialist International, anno 1973.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 08:33 am
nimh wrote:
How very Socialist International, anno 1973.

I would have said Andy Warhol knockoff, late 60s. Jim Fitzpatrick's version of Che Guevara's mugshot was one of those.
0 Replies
 
eoe
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 09:02 am
I love it!
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 09:06 am
More sunshine in this thread. Nice to see ya, eoe!
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 09:22 am
lower costs and mandate why the hell not? Just lower costs. I don't hear anyone complaining about auto insurance, that's mandated... and try dropping your auto insurance and see how that works out.

This year, with my income stabilizing and heading back upward... health insurance is THE NUMBER ONE THING on my radar....


Everyone needs it. Having said that, I also believe and hope that there is a special 10th. circle of hell for the health insurance industry.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 11:32 am
Thomas,

Soz's link is right in that nearly everyone will purchase health insurance. Right now, we have a situation which is downright unaffordable for many and we still have 5/6 Americans will health insurance. With subsidies and a large pool, why wouldn't we expect there to be 10/11 in just a few years? Will there really be that much larger a pool if we get 19/20? In terms of percentage, it's more, but in terms of dollar value it isn't.

You wrote:

Quote:

2) How, in your opinion, will Obama handle people who don't show up in emergency rooms, but try to sign up for the system after their health deteriorates? Let's take a practical example. It's the year 2025. A diabetic signs up to the system, and within months it turns out he needs dialysis, which in 2008 costs about $70,000 a year. The diabetic could have signed up for the the National Healthcare Plan when it was first installed in 2015 He would have received $200 worth of medication for free, which would have prevented the dialysis. But he didn't. He was too stingy to even get a blood picture taken for $20 to find out if he had diabetes in the first place. Only now, when his symptoms are severe (but not yet severe enough for the emergency room), the patient decides he needs health insurance.


If only diabetes were that simple, I would understand what you propose.

But the truth is that you can do everything right, take certain drugs, eat right, and still develop diabetes. How is it in the end any different - in terms of cost to the system - if someone develops it after years of doing the right thing, or after not doing the right thing?

You can take the right drugs but have a poor diet and develop diabetes. Under the mandated system, are those people still covered? It's arguably worse then if they had no care at all - they were told what they were doing wrong and still did it! An analogous situation is cigarette smokers. There's not a smoker alive who doesn't know that it will kill them. As a guy who used to be addicted to cigs, let me tell you - you don't need to even see a doctor to know that those f*cking things will kill you. You can feel it every time you smoke.

So, those smokers who develop problems - are they going to be forced to quit smoking, or get kicked out of the system? Are fat people going to be forced to lose weight, or get kicked out? Are people who don't exercise going to be forced to run? I think that you will see that no matter how much prevention we give people there will still be a large amount who don't take advantage of it.

I guess what I mean is that there are difficult questions to solve about who is getting a 'fair deal' and who is cheating the system no matter whether you have mandates or not. And like Soz said, people don't like being forced to do things. It's better to make it attractive enough that they would be fools not to do it.

That's where the 'cost minimization preceding mandates' idea comes in. And I'll remind you that Klein, the supposed Authority on this, says that absolutely needs to happen. That it's a given. Fine; show me the costs actually going down first, show anyone, and the resistance to joining will melt away.

Obama's plan - and the mailer - is correct. Under mandates, if the costs don't go down, you still have to pay higher costs. If the costs start going UP for various reasons, you have to pay. People have attempted to say 'well, the gov't will subsidize it,' but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that that's just passing the costs of your healthcare on to your kids - you still have to pay the higher amount sooner or later.

You state that

Quote:

But even that wouldn't save him. Let's suppose I was wrong, and that his plan does contain a "mandates later" provision. How do you explain then, that his campaign sends flyers out that attack Clinton's progam for its mandates? And, for style points, attack it with practically the same ad the health insurance lobby used to shoot down Bill Clinton's healthcare plan in 1994? This is bad!


It's correct to attack the plan for the mandates. I support him doing so. And I think the flyer was an effective message. That's why they used it. There's nothing dishonest about it; tell me, what part of the ad isn't true?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Sat 2 Feb, 2008 11:37 am
This won't mean much to anyone but Sozobe, but, my very liberal bro-in-law is now insisting that he will vote for McCain before Clinton (Sis was leaning the same way, last we spoke). Reason: 20 years Bush/Clinton/Bush is too much already. As I'm sure you can imagine; he was VERY against the war, so playing devil's advocate I pointed out that McCain has stated he may have us in Iraq for 100 years... "That's fine. I think it shows responsibility that we don't abandon them after we screwed up their country so badly."

I wonder how many of you Mad Town hippies are thinking along these lines.
0 Replies
 
 

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