Thomas,
Soz's link is right in that nearly everyone will purchase health insurance. Right now, we have a situation which is downright unaffordable for many and we still have 5/6 Americans will health insurance. With subsidies and a large pool, why wouldn't we expect there to be 10/11 in just a few years? Will there really be that much larger a pool if we get 19/20? In terms of percentage, it's more, but in terms of dollar value it isn't.
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2) How, in your opinion, will Obama handle people who don't show up in emergency rooms, but try to sign up for the system after their health deteriorates? Let's take a practical example. It's the year 2025. A diabetic signs up to the system, and within months it turns out he needs dialysis, which in 2008 costs about $70,000 a year. The diabetic could have signed up for the the National Healthcare Plan when it was first installed in 2015 He would have received $200 worth of medication for free, which would have prevented the dialysis. But he didn't. He was too stingy to even get a blood picture taken for $20 to find out if he had diabetes in the first place. Only now, when his symptoms are severe (but not yet severe enough for the emergency room), the patient decides he needs health insurance.
If only diabetes were that simple, I would understand what you propose.
But the truth is that you can do everything right, take certain drugs, eat right, and still develop diabetes. How is it in the end any different - in terms of cost to the system - if someone develops it after years of doing the right thing, or after not doing the right thing?
You can take the right drugs but have a poor diet and develop diabetes. Under the mandated system, are those people still covered? It's arguably worse then if they had no care at all - they were told what they were doing wrong and still did it! An analogous situation is cigarette smokers. There's not a smoker alive who doesn't know that it will kill them. As a guy who used to be addicted to cigs, let me tell you - you don't need to even see a doctor to know that those f*cking things will kill you. You can feel it every time you smoke.
So, those smokers who develop problems - are they going to be forced to quit smoking, or get kicked out of the system? Are fat people going to be forced to lose weight, or get kicked out? Are people who don't exercise going to be forced to run? I think that you will see that no matter how much prevention we give people there will still be a large amount who don't take advantage of it.
I guess what I mean is that there are difficult questions to solve about who is getting a 'fair deal' and who is cheating the system no matter whether you have mandates or not. And like Soz said, people don't like being forced to do things. It's better to make it attractive enough that they would be fools not to do it.
That's where the 'cost minimization preceding mandates' idea comes in. And I'll remind you that Klein, the supposed Authority on this, says that absolutely needs to happen. That it's a given. Fine; show me the costs actually going down first, show anyone, and the resistance to joining will melt away.
Obama's plan - and the mailer - is correct. Under mandates, if the costs don't go down, you still have to pay higher costs. If the costs start going UP for various reasons, you have to pay. People have attempted to say 'well, the gov't will subsidize it,' but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that that's just passing the costs of your healthcare on to your kids - you still have to pay the higher amount sooner or later.
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But even that wouldn't save him. Let's suppose I was wrong, and that his plan does contain a "mandates later" provision. How do you explain then, that his campaign sends flyers out that attack Clinton's progam for its mandates? And, for style points, attack it with practically the same ad the health insurance lobby used to shoot down Bill Clinton's healthcare plan in 1994? This is bad!
It's correct to attack the plan for the mandates. I support him doing so. And I think the flyer was an effective message. That's why they used it. There's nothing dishonest about it; tell me, what part of the ad isn't true?
Cycloptichorn