Butrflynet
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 12:15 pm
Unless I just don't understand this, the economic troubles the country faces with the plummeting stock market and the sharp decline in home values, a raise in the capital-gains tax will probably not even keep revenue levels where they are now.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2007/9/19/obama-pushes-for-higher-investment-taxes.html

Quote:
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 12:17 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Unless I just don't understand this, the economic troubles the country faces with the plummeting stock market and the sharp decline in home values, a raise in the capital-gains tax will probably not even keep revenue levels where they are now.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2007/9/19/obama-pushes-for-higher-investment-taxes.html

Quote:


That's a supply-siders argument if I ever heard it!

Investors may rush to cash in before the new laws take effect, but are people really going to sit on those stocks for the rest of their lives afterwards? Nope. The market adjusts like it always does and over time it becomes the norm.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 12:28 pm
Lola wrote:
blah blah blah and......

more blah blah blah

What I want to know is who's going to save us from the military (financial) industrial complex now? I would rather vote for someone who has proven herself over several decades than for one who promises some nebulus naive "hope" with no content. It wasn't long ago that Hillary was the darling of the young, old, black and white democrats. How times have changed. Fair weather friends I call them. If Obama is the candidate, I may not stay home on election day, but I'm sending no money to his campaign or the DNC.

I'm really tired of being told by the press that the Clintons are controlling and that Bill has gone "too far" while Obama gets away with playing the hurt, innocent do-gooder who just wants to get along. Nobody is that clean and if they are, I don't trust em.


Ooh rah and well said
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 12:31 pm
Cyclo is right; nobody in their right mind is going to not cash in their gains to not pay taxes. That's insane; it only hurts themselves, and the normalizing will take effect sooner than people think. Whoever sits on their gains not to pay taxes need their head's examined.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 12:32 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

That's a supply-siders argument if I ever heard it!

Investors may rush to cash in before the new laws take effect, but are people really going to sit on those stocks for the rest of their lives afterwards? Nope. The market adjusts like it always does and over time it becomes the norm.

Cycloptichorn


The facts of history are not with you. While the market and the behaviors of potential investors do indeed "adjust" to the new tax situation, that adjustment does indeed alter the behavior of capital markets in a lasting way. The cost of capital for new business start-ups goes up, thereby reducing inovation and new, adaptive business activity; with a high enough tax rate capital formation is reduced and investors look more to dividends than capital growth for their returns in existing businesses: this reduces business investment and modernization, making us less able to meet the challenges of our foreign competitors.

The United States already has a relatively high tax on corporate profits, compared to developed countries in both Europe and Asia. Significantly raising the capital gains tax will make us less competitive and further exacerbate our balance of payments problem.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:18 pm
For anyone like me who isn't able to see the live rally where the Kennedy family announced their endorsements of Obama, here's the prepared text of each of their speeches:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGVRs
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:33 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

That's a supply-siders argument if I ever heard it!

Investors may rush to cash in before the new laws take effect, but are people really going to sit on those stocks for the rest of their lives afterwards? Nope. The market adjusts like it always does and over time it becomes the norm.

Cycloptichorn


The facts of history are not with you. While the market and the behaviors of potential investors do indeed "adjust" to the new tax situation, that adjustment does indeed alter the behavior of capital markets in a lasting way. The cost of capital for new business start-ups goes up, thereby reducing inovation and new, adaptive business activity; with a high enough tax rate capital formation is reduced and investors look more to dividends than capital growth for their returns in existing businesses: this reduces business investment and modernization, making us less able to meet the challenges of our foreign competitors.

The United States already has a relatively high tax on corporate profits, compared to developed countries in both Europe and Asia. Significantly raising the capital gains tax will make us less competitive and further exacerbate our balance of payments problem.


Yes, I'm well aware of the supply-side arguments towards taxation, thanks very much.

I would counter that with this: people are not going to give up the opportunity to make money at any point. I would point out that our economy grew at an unprecedented rate when the cap. gains tax was in fact much higher during the 90's; so I think it's a little false to say that history doesn't agree. Is it really necessary for me to repost the same charts that you've seen, time and time again, proving this?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:36 pm
Please do. I'd like to understand this a lot better than I do now so I can better defend it.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:47 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
The facts of history are not with you.

I would also be intrested in the facts of history that you think contradict Cycloptichorn's story. Wasn't the capital gains tax one of the few taxes that Reagan raised? My recollection is that the rate was 20% in the Carter presidency, and that Reagan raised them to 28% -- the same level to which Obama now wants to raise them, too.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:57 pm
I'd like to point out that Barak Obama is the only candidate currently running ads in Florida....something they all agreed not to do.

Is that a dirty tactic?


http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080123/NEWS/801230668/-1/RSS01
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 02:06 pm
maporsche wrote:
I'd like to point out that Barak Obama is the only candidate currently running ads in Florida....something they all agreed not to do.

Is that a dirty tactic?


http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080123/NEWS/801230668/-1/RSS01


Those ads are playing on MSNBC and CNN nationally as part of their national commercial lineup. Hardly his fault.

Did you read the article?

Quote:
But Obama's campaign spokesman Bill Burton disputes the pledge was broken. He said the campaign asked CNN and MSNBC to pull Florida from the ad buy, but the networks said they could not.


On national TV networks there is a combination of local ads and national ads in almost every commercial break. If Obama was running a national ad, it's hard to see how they could interrupt that feed... and they claimed they asked them to, so?

At best it's a technical violation. Hillary on the other hand is planning on blatantly violating the rules:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080127/D8UEG4RG0.html

It's not right to break the rules even if someone else did it first. You ought to be criticizing her for planning to do this, if you are going to criticize Obama.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 02:56 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Blatham,

Quote:
Please don't take that as simply and falsely dismissive of your views but rather as a realistic appraisal of how such preferences will color apprehension/perceptions. Just imagine, to the degree that it is possible to do so, another situation (which might well have happened) where Obama had decided not to run at all and you had found no candidate who comparably inspired you. In this little thought experiment, it seems probable that your perceptions of the Clinton campaign would be quite different.


In that situation, people wouldn't be against Hillary nearly to the degree you say, you are correct.

But not for the reason you think. What has turned many away from her strongly is her actions, not her persona. I wouldn't be so vehemently against Hillary if she hadn't been pulling bullsh*t left and right in order to try and get elected; and if she had no major opponent she wouldn't be doing that, you are perfectly right about that.

Ask yourself, please: how much has the tone of the Clinton campaign changed? How different have they become now that they are threatened? And you will find your answer as to why there is so much antipathy towards her at the moment.

Blaming it on the right-wing is ridiculous. We all know that they did engage in a smear campaign, a prolonged one, against the Clintons, but much of what they said was grounded in truths, which were exaggerated for political effect. This doesn't necessarily invalidate many of the criticisms that were leveled against them at the time.

I don't personally understand where you get the idea that Obama will be as big a target as Hillary. How is it that he will have to face the problems and people who tried to bring Bill down, but she won't - tenfold?

Cycloptichorn


First, let me say that there is nothing in the Hayden piece posted by butrflynet with which I disagree. It's as close to my own view of this choice as I've seen with the single proviso regarding that which Krugman's column speaks to.

First, your last question. I see no reason (nor does Krugman) to assume that Barack won't face precisely what Clinton faced on entering office and through the progress of his term. It is a facet of the nature of the modern conservative movement to be this extreme in its quest for power (and there are enormous amounts of money at stake for the people and structures which do and will work in tandem with conservative movement principals...Iraq, as Greenspan said, was about oil, for just one example...banking, insurance and existing medical delivery interests will be no less desirous and activist in doing whatever they can to thwart Obama's medical reform plans, for another example...and we probably ought not to assume that the military/industrial corporate megalith has ANY functional interest in peace, for another example...and the petrochemical industries are not going to do everything they can while their interests are at stake to thwart any and every Obama thrust towards mitigating climate change legistlation, for a final example.

Hillary may have gathered up a big hatred-quotient within the right and within much of the media but they are a relatively small factor in where this push to get her or Obama or Edwards will come from. But its true that will make her run for the presidency quite possibly tougher and her time in office beset, by the press, say, than what we'll see with Obama. For a while, as Krugman argues.

To say that "much of what the right said about the clintons is grounded in truth" is a contention I consider far more false than it might be true. You know, for example, how much money and manpower was invested in the Starr campaign and everything which preceded it and you know that the single consequence of that was a blowjob and deceitful statements regarding it. Do you expect less of this sort of thing to happen to Obama and if you do, I don't know why you might. Do you really think that today's middle of the night arrest of Rezko wasn't facilitated by folks who want to color Obama as involved with corruption and criminality?

The tone of the clinton campaign has changed. But there is no campaign presently in operation which hasn't changed to counter opposition as it has arisen or evolved. The divisiveness we see on the left is not absent on the right. There too we see internal debates about whether if one candidate or another is chosen then the party will be torn apart. This divisiveness is running across the boards for a whole complex of reasons. Not the least of these reasons is the nature of modern American politics. Do I think her campaign has done more than Obama's or Edwards campaigns that ought to piss us off? Yes, I do. But I also consider that bare knuckles will be necessary in the very near future and for a fair while after.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:09 pm
blatham wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Blatham,

Quote:
Please don't take that as simply and falsely dismissive of your views but rather as a realistic appraisal of how such preferences will color apprehension/perceptions. Just imagine, to the degree that it is possible to do so, another situation (which might well have happened) where Obama had decided not to run at all and you had found no candidate who comparably inspired you. In this little thought experiment, it seems probable that your perceptions of the Clinton campaign would be quite different.


In that situation, people wouldn't be against Hillary nearly to the degree you say, you are correct.

But not for the reason you think. What has turned many away from her strongly is her actions, not her persona. I wouldn't be so vehemently against Hillary if she hadn't been pulling bullsh*t left and right in order to try and get elected; and if she had no major opponent she wouldn't be doing that, you are perfectly right about that.

Ask yourself, please: how much has the tone of the Clinton campaign changed? How different have they become now that they are threatened? And you will find your answer as to why there is so much antipathy towards her at the moment.

Blaming it on the right-wing is ridiculous. We all know that they did engage in a smear campaign, a prolonged one, against the Clintons, but much of what they said was grounded in truths, which were exaggerated for political effect. This doesn't necessarily invalidate many of the criticisms that were leveled against them at the time.

I don't personally understand where you get the idea that Obama will be as big a target as Hillary. How is it that he will have to face the problems and people who tried to bring Bill down, but she won't - tenfold?

Cycloptichorn


First, let me say that there is nothing in the Hayden piece posted by butrflynet with which I disagree. It's as close to my own view of this choice as I've seen with the single proviso regarding that which Krugman's column speaks to.

First, your last question. I see no reason (nor does Krugman) to assume that Barack won't face precisely what Clinton faced on entering office and through the progress of his term. It is a facet of the nature of the modern conservative movement to be this extreme in its quest for power (and there are enormous amounts of money at stake for the people and structures which do and will work in tandem with conservative movement principals...Iraq, as Greenspan said, was about oil, for just one example...banking, insurance and existing medical delivery interests will be no less desirous and activist in doing whatever they can to thwart Obama's medical reform plans, for another example...and we probably ought not to assume that the military/industrial corporate megalith has ANY functional interest in peace, for another example...and the petrochemical industries are not going to do everything they can while their interests are at stake to thwart any and every Obama thrust towards mitigating climate change legistlation, for a final example.

Hillary may have gathered up a big hatred-quotient within the right and within much of the media but they are a relatively small factor in where this push to get her or Obama or Edwards will come from. But its true that will make her run for the presidency quite possibly tougher and her time in office beset, by the press, say, than what we'll see with Obama. For a while, as Krugman argues.

To say that "much of what the right said about the clintons is grounded in truth" is a contention I consider far more false than it might be true. You know, for example, how much money and manpower was invested in the Starr campaign and everything which preceded it and you know that the single consequence of that was a blowjob and deceitful statements regarding it. Do you expect less of this sort of thing to happen to Obama and if you do, I don't know why you might. Do you really think that today's middle of the night arrest of Rezko wasn't facilitated by folks who want to color Obama as involved with corruption and criminality?

The tone of the clinton campaign has changed. But there is no campaign presently in operation which hasn't changed to counter opposition as it has arisen or evolved. The divisiveness we see on the left is not absent on the right. There too we see internal debates about whether if one candidate or another is chosen then the party will be torn apart. This divisiveness is running across the boards for a whole complex of reasons. Not the least of these reasons is the nature of modern American politics. Do I think her campaign has done more than Obama's or Edwards campaigns that ought to piss us off? Yes, I do. But I also consider that bare knuckles will be necessary in the very near future and for a fair while after.


Good responses.

I think that part of Obama's advantage is that he doesn't have as much record to be attacked as the Clintons did. It's possible that some shady dealings (other then the Rezko thing, which looks to be small potatoes) could come up against him, but hard to know what they would be. I guess they might have an ace or two in the hole, but who can say?

I understand that your and Krugman's concerns about Obama are well founded, but they are also somewhat nebulous. None of us can predict the future and what things will be like for Obama in office; all we can do is judge candidates by their behavior and past record. Obama seems to be displaying good behavior and his record is thin but at least adequate. Hillary has a thick record and is displaying questionable behavior, and what more, that record includes more bad things then Obama's record could hope to, simply due to the sheer length of time she's had to put up with attacks from the Republicans.

I think that while you (and to a lesser extent) I have looked into the intricacies of the Clinton's defenses of the whitewater and other situations, there's plenty of evidence that these past shady deals and problems are still an effective tool for beating Hillary over the head. And they were shady situations, no matter how things turned out in the end.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:16 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
maporsche wrote:
I'd like to point out that Barak Obama is the only candidate currently running ads in Florida....something they all agreed not to do.

Is that a dirty tactic?


http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080123/NEWS/801230668/-1/RSS01


Those ads are playing on MSNBC and CNN nationally as part of their national commercial lineup. Hardly his fault.

Did you read the article?


At best it's a technical violation.


I sure did. Obama HAS ads playing in Florida. Hillary and Edwards DO NOT.

Are you trying to tell me that it is impossible for Obama to broadcast on MSNBC and CNN w/o broadcasting in FL. Are Edwards and Clinton just not broadcasting nationally? Or did they maybe find a way to stay out of FL and Obama can conviently claim that "I tried"....maybe some candidates just tried a little harder to follow the rules.

Quote:

Hillary on the other hand is planning on blatantly violating the rules:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080127/D8UEG4RG0.html


No, she is trying to CHANGE the rules. She's not breaking them.

And really, with all 3 candidates on the ballot in FL, and Obama actually campaigning there, what do you have against allowing FL's votes to count. I could see the argument against Michigan's votes, but why FL?

Quote:

It's not right to break the rules even if someone else did it first. You ought to be criticizing her for planning to do this, if you are going to criticize Obama.


Again, Obama is breaking the rules. Clinton & Edwards are not.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:20 pm
Did you read the article?

Quote:
SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she was going to Florida to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard" and to underscore her commitment to seeing the state's delegation seated at the national convention.

Though the Democratic presidential candidates largely have heeded the national party's request that they not campaign publicly in Florida, Clinton said it's time to pay attention to voters there who are showing heavy interest in Tuesday's primary. Early voting is under way and drawing strong interest, she said.


She's going to go campaign there. When I said she's planning on breaking the rules, that's what I meant.

I suppose it's possible that Obama's camp is lying, but I have little doubt that MSNBC and CNN would quickly confirm to the Clintons that they never said any such things to him. That hasn't happened though. If I were you I'd take my beef up with them.

What do you think of someone who looks to change the rules in the middle of the game, Ma? Sound fair to you? Not I. If Obama were ahead in FL and were trying to do this you'd be screaming bloody murder.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:23 pm
Thomas wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
The facts of history are not with you.

I would also be intrested in the facts of history that you think contradict Cycloptichorn's story. Wasn't the capital gains tax one of the few taxes that Reagan raised? My recollection is that the rate was 20% in the Carter presidency, and that Reagan raised them to 28% -- the same level to which Obama now wants to raise them, too.


Your recollection is largely correct. The Reagan administration inherited a 20% capital gains tax rate enacted by the Carter Administration in 1978. The first of the Reagan era tax reforms in 1981 reduced and simplified the income tax schedules and simplified the capital gains tax structure, holding the rate at 20%. In the second Reagan era Tax reform, in 1986 - a bill sponsored by the Democrat Congress - the top marginal income tax rate was reduced from 50% to 35% and, in a compensation demanded by the Democrats, the capital gains rate was raised to 28% - where it stayed until the current administration came into power.

The facts of history to which I referred Cyclo reflect the effects of high capital gains taxes on capital markets. They are just as I described them. The U.S still has a much higher tax on corporate profits than nearly all developed countries. This and the increases in the tax rates on both corporate profits and capital gains (and very likely qualified dividends as well) will have a very negative effect on business investment.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:24 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Did you read the article?

Quote:
SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she was going to Florida to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard" and to underscore her commitment to seeing the state's delegation seated at the national convention.

Though the Democratic presidential candidates largely have heeded the national party's request that they not campaign publicly in Florida, Clinton said it's time to pay attention to voters there who are showing heavy interest in Tuesday's primary. Early voting is under way and drawing strong interest, she said.


She's going to go campaign there. When I said she's planning on breaking the rules, that's what I meant.

I suppose it's possible that Obama's camp is lying, but I have little doubt that MSNBC and CNN would quickly confirm to the Clintons that they never said any such things to him. That hasn't happened though. If I were you I'd take my beef up with them.

What do you think of someone who looks to change the rules in the middle of the game, Ma? Sound fair to you? Not I. If Obama were ahead in FL and were trying to do this you'd be screaming bloody murder.

Cycloptichorn



Please show me any schedule of campaign stops, or public gatherings, or town hall meeting, or anything that would show that she is campaigning there. Her being in FL is not equalivant to campaigning in FL.




And back to my other question;

With ALL 3 major candidates on the ballot in Florida, and no one campaigning in FL until Obama's adds started to air, and all of this talk going on BEFORE the vote. What do you have against allowing FLORIDA's (not Michigan's) votes to count in the primary?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:29 pm
maporsche wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Did you read the article?

Quote:
SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she was going to Florida to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard" and to underscore her commitment to seeing the state's delegation seated at the national convention.

Though the Democratic presidential candidates largely have heeded the national party's request that they not campaign publicly in Florida, Clinton said it's time to pay attention to voters there who are showing heavy interest in Tuesday's primary. Early voting is under way and drawing strong interest, she said.


She's going to go campaign there. When I said she's planning on breaking the rules, that's what I meant.

I suppose it's possible that Obama's camp is lying, but I have little doubt that MSNBC and CNN would quickly confirm to the Clintons that they never said any such things to him. That hasn't happened though. If I were you I'd take my beef up with them.

What do you think of someone who looks to change the rules in the middle of the game, Ma? Sound fair to you? Not I. If Obama were ahead in FL and were trying to do this you'd be screaming bloody murder.

Cycloptichorn



Please show me any schedule of campaign stops, or public gatherings, or town hall meeting, or anything that would show that she is campaigning there. Her being in FL is not equalivant to campaigning in FL.




And back to my other question;

With ALL 3 major candidates on the ballot in Florida, and no one campaigning in FL until Obama's adds started to air, and all of this talk going on BEFORE the vote. What do you have against allowing FLORIDA's (not Michigan's) votes to count in the primary?


B/c they broke the rules the DNC set. Simple as that. And all the candidates agreed to honor the rule. Now some desperate campaigns don't want to do so. How hard is that to understand?

If Florida's Dems have a problem, maybe they should take it up with their local Dem party. They knew what the consequences for breaking the rules would be.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:32 pm
Oh, and the other part:

Quote:


Please show me any schedule of campaign stops, or public gatherings, or town hall meeting, or anything that would show that she is campaigning there. Her being in FL is not equalivant to campaigning in FL.


She'd better not speak to the media or any reporters at all. Otherwise she's explicitly violating the rules set by the DNC. And do you honestly see her going dark and silent for a few days before super Tuesday?

Please

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Miller
 
  1  
Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:33 pm
Quote:
Here's the Clinton memo:

The Obama campaign today began airing paid television advertisements in a national cable buy that include advertising in the state of Florida. There is no question that these ads are a clear and blatant violation of the early-state pledge that Senator Obama and the other leading Democratic candidates signed last year.

The early state pledge was crystal clear in its prohibition against any kind of campaign activity (outside of fundraising) in states that do not adhere to the DNC calendar. There is no ambiguity. Among the list of prohibited activities are "electronic advertising that reaches a significant percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state." (According to Nielsen, there are 6,6 million TV households in Florida that receive CNN through either local cable systems or satellite dishes. This represents 92% of all Florida TV households.) The Obama campaign knows this, but has chosen to violate the pledge regardless.

Just last week the Obama campaign snubbed the people of Florida in a memo that stated that Florida did not matter in the nominating process. After consecutive losses in New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, they appear to be changing course.

Senator Obama's flagrant disregard for the pledge that he signed is disturbing and calls the integrity of the pledge into question


www.observer.com
0 Replies
 
 

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