Obama '08?

From his speech [2004 convention], we can see it's always been Obama's intention to transcend the political divide. For me, though, that wasn't his appeal. In today's media environment, one's opponent in a political campaign isn't the other candidates up on the debate floor -- it's the media itself. And Obama had an appeal in the eyes of journalists that is rarely found in a politician. Entertainers, sports figures -- those are the usual media darlings in this country. But Obama had that something.

And he certainly needed it. Because he would need his strength as a mediated personality to buffer him from his main structural disadvantage in the 2008 race: Bill Clinton.

See, the thing is, Hillary Clinton has got a built-in advantage over everyone -- any candidate who gets the Democratic nomination in 2008 is going to need the support of our country's most popular Democratic figure. That's her hubby, Bill. So to the extent that primary campaigns are about drawing distinctions, Hillary's opponents can only go so far. Piss off Bill, and good luck getting him to campaign for you in 2008.

Maybe not fair, but that's the Clinton Advantage.

So Barack Obama needed every bit of his media profile to take on Clinton in this campaign. But, the strangest thing happened. Turns out, Hillary's actually not like her caricature. She's often used humor -- her latest joke about getting attention from all the other men running for office is a great example -- to turn around her image. And, it turns out, the media seem to love her. Sure, we've had to deal with the "cackle" weekend, but that's come and gone, and hasn't seemed to change the dynamics of the race.

The other strange thing is, Obama, it turns out, isn't all that much of a media darling. Maybe the sound-bite, show-of-hands "debate" format doesn't suit him. Maybe he's not saying anything new, or exciting. Maybe he's turned out to be too risk-averse, pulling punches instead of letting it all hang out. Maybe it's just that Hillary is too busy capturing the attention of political journalists, and Obama's been relegated to the second tier.

As I said, the opponent here is the news media, and it seems to have, at least in part, contributed to his undoing.

I did it!

soz(delusionsofgrandeur)obe

(lookit that timing though, huh? ;-))

Hey, we can't prove your exhortation wasn't the tipping thing, can we?

As his chartered plane landed in Columbus and taxied across the tarmac, he leaned forward in his leather captain's chair and finished the interview with an inquiry of his own.

"So," he said, "give me some gossip about the Republicans."

In the interview, Mr. Obama acknowledged that he had held back until now, though he asserted it was a calculated decision to introduce himself in early voting states before engaging opponents.

In a meeting hall at the fairground in rural Tipton, Obama was pointedly invited to criticize Clinton recently when a 65-year-old woman asked, "Why should I vote for you instead of Hillary Clinton?"

Instead, he gave a somewhat rambling answer that began by complimenting Clinton as "very capable," "smart" and "tough." He also said she would be a "vast improvement over George Bush." Then he mildly knocked her for what he called her "conventional" views on foreign policy. Five minutes later, he concluded: "If you're still unpersuaded, talk to me afterwards, 'cause I got more stuff for you, but I don't want to use up all my time."

This is good, but I have my doubts that trying to be "clear with the American people" on these particular subjects is going to do the trick. [..] We've already seen Obama try to get some mileage out of the rather narrow differences he has with Hillary over Social Security, Iraq and Iran, and there's just no there there. There are differences, but they're too small to build a campaign on.

What Obama needs is a brand new issue. If you've been following British politics for the past couple of months, you have an idea of what I'm talking about here. [..]

Continuing to hammer on the same issues he's been talking about for the past six months, even if he does it more aggressively, isn't likely to gain him more than a few points in the polls, and there's just not enough time left for that to do him any good. Instead, he needs something that comes out of left field and blindsides Hillary. Something small, perhaps (Cameron's inheritance tax proposal wasn't really that big a deal), but with a lot of broad, symbolic appeal. Any ideas?

I read the NY Times piece on how Obama was going to go on attack, and I saw Obama in action this morning in Iowa. If what I saw is attack mode, we're doomed.

Obama spoke for probably 40 minutes and then took 3 questions (2 from people wearing T-shirts about their issues, and 1 from someone who seemed to be a staffer). It was all very controlled.

Obama mentioned Hillary by name twice. The first time was to reference the dispute about whether you could talk to dictators in your first year in office. The second was to discuss Hillarycare. Obama gave Hillary props for trying, but then critiqued her closed-door approach. He said he'd talk to the people and take out his own TV ads if necessary. That's all.

There was a fair amount of rhetoric about how he'd tell the truth, and how voters should choose a politician they trust, but that's pretty much indistinguishable from other candidates' Iowan stump speeches.

Maybe he's planning on rolling out his sharpened elbows outside of Iowa???

Posted by: Blue in IA on October 27, 2007 at 5:53 PM