Obama '08?

I know; it's a matter of depending on her to follow up on her campaign promise.

cicerone imposter wrote:

I know; it's a matter of depending on her to follow up on her campaign promise.

Do you think Hillary would be better able to pass universal health care than Obama or Edwards? (If so, why?)

Among 2,472 Democrats and those who lean Democratic (combining data from the last five Gallup national surveys), Clinton leads Obama among union members (45% to 19%) while Edwards trails at 17%. Among non-members, Clinton leads Obama (46% to 26%) while Edwards trails at 13%.

THE DARTMOUTH DEBATE:

In the "spin room" after tonight's debate, Elizabeth Edwards suggested her husband offers Democrats a rare opportunity: the chance to nominate someone who is both the most progressive and the most electable candidate running. (At least among the plausible candidates.)

It's an intriguing notion, one that would play well among the notoriously liberal and notoriously strategic-minded Democrats of Iowa. The only question is whether it's actually possible. That is, in moving aggressively to the left of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, does John Edwards invariably undercut the general-election appeal that almost won him the caucuses in 2004?

I think Edwards took a significant step toward answering that question tonight. He came out of the gate taking issue with what he described as Clinton's willingness to leave combat troops in Iraq for the indefinite future. And, in perhaps his best moment of the debate, he warned that Clinton's vote on a Joe Lieberman-sponsored Senate resolution targeting Iran's Revolutionary Guard represented a serious lapse in judgment.

But, despite his forcefulness, Edwards came off as controlled and reasonable. The Clinton campaign has taken to dismissing Edwards's increasingly strident attacks as acts of desperation. "Usually people have an aggressive attack strategy because they're falling rather than gaining" in the polls, was how Clinton strategist Mark Penn explained it during the post-game session. But there wasn't much trace of desperation in Edwards strikes tonight. On the Iran vote, for example, he didn't trash Hillary as a Lieberman-style war-monger. He acknowledged that the resolution was substantively limited, but suggested that even a limited measure was risky given the administration it would empower. "I voted for this war in Iraq," Edwards said. "Senator Clinton also voted for this war. We learned a very different lesson from that. ... [W]hat I learned in my vote on Iraq was you cannot give this president the authority and you can't even give him the first step in that authority because he cannot be trusted."

Edwards has a knack for coming off earnest and high-minded even when he's knee-capping an opponent. When Tim Russert mentioned his charge that Clinton's mismanagement of health-care reform in the '90s had left tens of millions of Americans uninsured, he seemed genuinely offended. "I didn't use the word 'mismanagement,'" he said. "I think Senator Clinton actually worked--as first lady at that time--very hard for health care." He then promptly explained why having a "bunch of Washington insiders who sit around tables together" to plot the fate of the health care system was a horrible idea.

Obama, by contrast, seemed as reluctant as Edwards was eager to emphasize differences with Clinton. Except for a single moment when he, too, chided her for the closed-door approach on health care reform, his criticisms of Clinton were as subtle and indirect as ever.

His way of tweaking Clinton on the Iran resolution was to point out that Iran "is in a stronger position now than it was before the Iraq war because the Congress authorized the president to go in." Discussing a recent Israeli strike on suspected nuclear equipment in Syria, Obama noted that, "[W]e don't know exactly what happened with respect to Syria. We've gotten general reports, but ... [w]e got general reports in the run-up to the Iraq war that proved erroneous, and a lot of people voted for that war as a consequence."

At times Obama reminds you of the guy who calls out the name of the class bully from across the cafeteria, only to lose his nerve and mutter something harmless once the bully struts over and stares him in the face. At one point during a discussion of campaign finance reform, Obama riffed about the need for better disclosure among bundlers--the moneymen who package together contributions from dozens (sometimes hundreds) of individual donors. I assumed this was a shot at Clinton's ties to the fugitive bundler Norman Hsu. But maybe not. In any case, if the press has trouble making these connections, I'm not sure the average Iowan is ever going to get there.

Prior to the debate, the cable pundits were practically giddy with anticipation of a looming Obama offensive. Chris Matthews went on about how Obama needed to wag his finger at Clinton and indict her over the war, like a prosecutor in the Scott Turrow movie Presumed Innocent. Obama's performance tonight seemed like a direct response to these expectations. There was almost an element of defiance in his low-key performance, as though he were saying: "This is the strategy I'm going with, so lay off." His aides later underscored this impression. The rumor circulating among the press was that Obama's lack of energy might have had something to do with a head cold he'd come down with this week. But Obama guru David Axelrod was having none of it. "In this business, you play with injuries," he told a reporter.

At this point, the thinking in the Obama camp seems to rest on two assumptions. The first is that the press will do the work of deciphering his overly-subtle jabs at Clinton. The second is that Edwards, in moving aggressively to take on Clinton, will drive up his own negatives in addition to hers. But, after tonight, at least one of those assumptions may need revising. Edwards looks perfectly capable of firing shots without suffering much blowback. Elizabeth Edwards maybe onto something yet.

Run Hillary run... please!

(Though I do fear an increase in domestic violence as guys who give a **** find out their wives voted for the horrific bitch).

As I've said before, I think there's an 80% chance that Hillary will be the next President

now we all know I'm an unimformed ignoramus, but based on his performance last night, I think Obama is out of steam already, and if this far into the campaign he's wearing down... then he's out of his league and I can't imagine how they would rip him apart if he took the White House.

Hillary is strong, connected, determined, experienced and tough. She also brings Bill to the party.

She's the one.

Run Hillary run... please!

(Though I do fear an increase in domestic violence as guys who give a **** find out their wives voted for the horrific bitch).

Bi-Polar Bear wrote:

now we all know I'm an unimformed ignoramus, but based on his performance last night, I think Obama is out of steam already, and if this far into the campaign he's wearing down... then he's out of his league and I can't imagine how they would rip him apart if he took the White House.

Hillary is strong, connected, determined, experienced and tough. She also brings Bill to the party.

She's the one.

BPB, I also think Clinton brings a stronger political sense that will serve her well in the white house.

Quote:

Obama put out his own statement on the case, saying it's not "a matter of black and white," but rather "a matter of right and wrong." [..] I'm not going to endorse Jackson's race-baiting, but Obama's statement says a lot about the reality of racism in America today. Jena is about black and white. [..]

An illustration of the point I was trying to make last night that I failed to include was a comparison of statements from presidential candidates about the Jena 6 case. [..] Let's line up the official statements. [..]

Clinton:

I am deeply concerned about reports of potentially disparate treatment of white youths and African-American youths in the criminal justice system. I am troubled by reports that African-American students were initially charged and may be sentenced in a manner out of proportion to their wrongs. And I have long been troubled by a history of disparate treatment of African Americans in our criminal justice system.

[..]Edwards:

As someone who grew up in the segregated South, I feel a special responsibility to speak out on racial intolerance. To measure our progress in the fight against racism, today our nation looks to Jena, Louisiana. Americans of all races are traveling to Jena because they believe that how we respond to the racial tensions in Jena says everything about who we are as a nation …When a 'white tree' stands outside a public school, marking a place where white students sit but black students are not welcome, there is something so wrong that the right words are hard to find.

And Obama:

Today I stand with those who stand for justice in Jena. The thousands of Americans from every race and region who have descended on this small Louisiana town carry forth the legacy of all those who sat at lunch counters and took freedom rides to strike a blow against injustice wherever it may exist. When a noose hangs from a schoolyard tree in the 21st century and young men are treated in a way that is not equal nor just, it is not just an offense to the people of Jena or to the African-American community, it is an offense to the ideals we hold as Americans. I renew my call for the District Attorney to drop the excessive charges filed in this case, and I will continue my decades-long fight against injustice and division as President.

Words that Obama can't use include, but are not limited to: segregation, black, white, racism, criminal justice system, racial tension, and intolerance. He has to temper his statement as an inclusive, all-humanity call to action against injustice, rather than a call to action against a criminal justice system that is inherently racist and a white-dominated society where cases like Jena are still too-common. [..]

Barack Obama's speech at Howard University this morning was full of explosive, rhythmic calls to action, striking a fine balance between sober convocation and straight stumping. The campaign touted it as a substantive rollout of Obama's criminal justice platform, while the theater of his presence clearly thrilled the audience of black students and faculty.

The speech addressed a laundry-list of domestic policy issues dear to black voters: Katrina, capital punishment, racial profiling, fairer drug sentencing, funds to support more qualified public defenders, and said that in his presidency voter intimidation "will not be an injustice--it will be a crime."

Obama also spent a significant portion of the speech addressing the Jena Six trials. He was direct and unambiguous about his contempt for the handling of the case in Louisiana, and put it in the same category as Katrina in terms of the damage it did to Americans' trust in American justice. [..]

Obama was yelling by the time he dismounted from a sermonlike finish. Supporters worried about his lackluster debate appearances should take comfort in this fiery speech, and perhaps we all need to think harder about what games Obama plays for which crowds. It's certainly not that he can't--the real question is why he won't turn up the burners at every opportunity.

OBAMA @ HOWARD:

"To all of the honored and distinguished guests faculty staff and students, it is a privilege to be a part of today's convocation, and an honor to receive this degree from Howard.

Now there are few other universities that have played so central a role in breaking down yesterday's barriers, and inching this country closer to the ideals we see inscribed on the monuments throughout the city.

...

It is because of those victories that a black man named Barack Hussein Obama can stand before you today as candidate for President of the United States. I am not just running to make history. I am running because I believe that together we can change history's course. It's not enough just to look back and wonder how far we've come; I want us to look ahead with fierce urgency at how far we have to go. I believe its time for this generation to make its own mark, to write our own chapter in the American story.

Those who came before us did not strike a blow against injustice only so that we would let injustice fester in our time. Thurgood Marshall did not argue Brown so that we could accept a country where too many African American men end up in prison because we'd rather spend more to jail a 25-year-old than to educate a 5-year-old. Dr. King did not take us to the mountaintop so that we would allow a terrible storm to ravage those who were stranded in the valley. He did not expect that it would take a breach in the levees to reveal a breach in our compassion; that it would take a hurricane to reveal the hungry God asked us to feed, the sick he asks us to care for, the least of these he asks us to treat as our own.

I am certain that nine children did not walk through the doors of a school in Little Rock so that our children would have to see nooses hanging at a school in Louisiana. It's a fitting reminder that the 50th anniversary of Little Rock fell on this week. Because when the doors of that school finally opened, a nation responded. The President sent the United States Army to stand on the side of justice. The Congress passed the Civil Rights Act of 1957. The Department of Justice created a civil rights division and millions of Americans took to the streets in the following months and years so that more children could walk through more doors.

These weren't easy choices to make at the time. President Eisenhower was warned by some that sending the army down to Little Rock would be political suicide. Resistance to civil rights reform was fierce. We know that those who marched for freedom did so at great risk, for themselves and their families --but they did it because they understood that there are some times in our history, there are moments when what's truly risky is not to act. What's truly risky is to let the same injustice remain year after year after year. What's truly risky is to walk away and pretend it never happened. What's truly risky is to accept things as they are, instead of working for what they could be. In a media driven culture that's more obsessed with who's beating who in Washington, or how long Paris Hilton is going to be in jail, these moments are harder to spot. But every so often they do appear. Sometimes it takes a hurricane, sometimes it takes a travesty of justice like the one we've seen in Jena, Louisiana.

There are some who will make Jena about the fight itself. And it's true that we have to do more as parents to instill our children with the idea that violence is always wrong: It's wrong when it happens on the streets of Chicago; it's wrong when it happens in a schoolyard in Louisiana. Violence is not the answer. And all of us know that more violence is perpetrated between blacks than between blacks and whites. Our community has suffered more than anything from the slow, chronic tolerance of violence. Nonviolence was the soul of the civil rights movement. We have to do a better job of teaching our children that virtue.

But we also know that to truly understand Jena you have to look at what happened both before and after that fight. You have to listen to the hateful slurs that flew through the hallways of that school. You have to know the full measure of the damage done by that arson; you have to look at those nooses hanging on that schoolyard tree, and you have to understand how badly our system of justice failed those six boys in the days after that fight. The outrageous charges, the unreasonable and excessive sentences, the public defender who did not call a single witness.

Like Katrina did with poverty, Jena exposed glaring inequalities in our justice system that were around long before that schoolyard fight broke out. It reminds us of the fact that we have a system that locks away too many young first time nonviolent offenders for the better part of their lives; a decision that's not made by a judge in a courtroom but all too often by politicians in Washington and state capitals across the country. It reminds us that we have certain sentences that are based less than on the kind of crime you commit than where you come from, or what you look like. It reminds us that we have a Justice Department whose idea of prosecuting civil rights violations is to roll back affirmative action programs at our colleges and universities; a Justice Department whose idea of prosecuting voter fraud is to look for voting fraud in black and Latino communities where voting fraud does not exist. And you know that these inequities are there. We know they're wrong. And yet they go largely unnoticed until people finally find the courage to stand up and say they're wrong--until someone finally says: It's wrong that Scooter Libby gets no jail time for compromising our national security while a 21-year-old honor student is sitting in a Georgia prison for something that was not even a felony.

It's not always easy to come out and say this. I commend those of you at Howard that have spoken out on Jena Six or traveled to the rally in Louisiana. I commend those of you who have spoken out on the Genarlow Wilson case. I know it can be lonely protesting this kind of injustice. I know there's not a lot of glamour in it. Because when I was a state senator in Illinois we have a death penalty system that had sent 13 innocent people to their death--13 innocent men that we know. I wanted to reform the system, and I was told by almost everyone that it was not possible, that I wouldn't be able to get police officers and civil rights activists to work together, Democrats and Republicans to agree that we should videotape confessions to make sure they weren't coerced. Folks told me that there was too much political risk involved, and it would come to haunt me later, when I ran for higher office. But I believed that it was too risky not to act. And after a while people with opposing views came together and started listening. And we ended up reforming that death penalty system, and we did the same when I passed the law to expose racial profiling.

So don't let anyone tell you that change is not possible. Don't let them tell you that standing out and speaking up about injustice is too risky. What's too risky is keeping quiet. What's too risky is looking the other way. I don't want to be here standing and talking about another Jena four years from now because we didn't have the courage to act today. I don't want this to be another issue that ends up being ignored when the cameras are turned off and the headlines disappear. It's time to seek a new dawn of justice in America.

From the day I take office as President of the United States--has a ring to it, doesn't it? From the day I take office as President America will have a Justice Department that is truly dedicated to justice, the work it began in the days after Little Rock. I will rid the department of idealogues and political cronies, and for the first time in eight years the civil rights division will actually be staffed with civil rights lawyers who prosecute civil rights violations, and employment discrimination and hate crimes.

...

And we'll have a voting rights section that actually defends the rights of all American to vote without deception or intimidation. When fliers are placed in our neighborhoods telling people to vote on the wrong day, that won't be an injustice--it will be a crime. As President of the United States I will also work every day to ensure that this country has a criminal justice system that inspires trust and confidence in every American regardless of age or race or background. There's no reason that every person accused of a crime shouldn't have a qualified public attorney to defend them. We'll recruit more public defenders to the profession by forgiving college and law school loans. I will be asking some of the brilliant young minds here at Howard to take advantage of that offer. There's no reason why we can't pass a racial profiling law like I did in Illinois, or encourage states to reform the death penalty so that innocent people do not end up on death row.

When I am President I will no longer accept the false choice between being tough on crime and vigilant in our pursuit of justice. Dr. King said: 'It's not either/or, it's both/and.' Black folks care about stopping crime. We care about being tough on violence. But we can have a crime policy that's both tough and smart. If you're convicted of a crime involving drugs, of course you should be punished. But let's not make the punishment for crack cocaine that much more severe than the punishment for powder cocaine when the real difference is where the people are using them or who is using them. Republicans have said they think that's wrong, Democrats think that's wrong and yet it's been approved by Republican and Democratic presidents because no one has been willing to brave the politics and make it right. But I will, when I am President of the United States of America.

I think its time we took a hard look at the wisdom of locking up some first time nonviolent drug users for decades. Someone once said, and I quote: 'While minimum sentences for first-time users may not be the best way to occupy jail space, and/or heal people from their disease.' You know who said that? That was George W. BushÂ--six years ago. And I don't say this very often, but I agree with George W. Bush. The difference is that he hasn't done anything about it. When I am President of the United States, I will. We will review these sentences to see where we can be smarter on crime and reduce the blind and counterproductive warehousing of nonviolent offenders. We will give first-time nonviolent drug offenders a chance to serve their sentence where appropriate, in the type of drug rehab programs that have proven to work better than a prison term in changing bad behavior and reducing recidivism. So let's reform the system. Let's do what's smart. Let's do what's just.

Now there's no doubt that taking these steps will restore a measure of justice and equality to America. It will also restore a sense of confidence to the American people that the system doesn't just work, it works for everyone. But there's a broader point I'd like to meet here today. If I have the opportunity to lead this nation, I will always be a president who hears your voice and understand your concerns. A President whose story is like so many of your own. Whose life work has been the unfinished work of our long march towards justice. And I will stand up for you, and fight for you, and wake up every single day thinking about how to make your lives better.

The truth is, though, one man cannot make a movement. No single law can erase the prejudice in the heart of a child who hangs a noose on a tree. Or in the callousness of a pros who bypasses justice in the pursuit of vengeance. No one leader, no matter how shrewd, or experienced, or inspirational, can prevent teenagers from killing other teenagers in the streets of our cities, or free our neighborhoods from the grip of homelessness, or make real the promise of opportunity and equality for every citizen.

Only a country can do those things. Only this country can do those things. That's why if you give me the chance to serve this nation, the most important thing I will do as your President is to ask you to serve this country, too. The most important thing I'll do is to call on you every day to take a risk, and do your part to carry this movement forward. Against deep odds and great cynicism I will ask you to believe that we can right the wrong we see in America. I say this particularly to the young people who are listening today.

…

I know that you believe it's possible too. The most inspiring thing about the response to Jena was that it did not begin with the actions of any one leader. The call went out to thousands across the internet and on black radio and on college campuses like Howard. And, like the young Americans of another era, you left your homes and you got on buses and you traveled south. It's what happened two years earlier when Americans from every walk of life took it upon themselves to save a city that was drawing. It's how real change and true justice have always come about. It takes a movement to lift a nation. It will take a movement to go into our cities and say that is not enough just to fix our criminal justice says what we really need is to make sure our kids don't end up there in the first place.

…

It's time to finish what we started in Topeka, Kansas and Little Rock, Arkansas. It will take a movement of every American from every city and town, every race and every background to stand up and say: No matter what you look like or where you come from, every child in America should have the opportunity to receive the best education this country can offer. Every child. We recruit an army of new teachers, and we pay them better, and we give them more support. It will take a movement to ensure that every young person gets the chance that Howard has given all of you, to say that at the beginning of the 21st century, college education is not a luxury for those who can afford it--it is the birthright of every single American. So when we go back to your class rooms and your dorm rooms and you begin this new year at Howard University, I ask you to remember how far we've come, but I urge you to think about where we need to go. I urge you to think about the risks you will take and the role you will play in the movement that will get us there.

And I finally ask you to remember the story of Moses and Joshua, I spoke about this when I was in Selma, the 42nd anniversary of Bloody Sunday and the march across the Edmund Pettus Bridge. Most of you know that Moses was called by God to lead his people to the promised land. And in the face of a pharaoh and his armies, across an unforgiving desert and along the walls of an angry sea, he succeeded in leading his people out of bondage in Egypt. He led them through great dangers and they got far enough so that Moses could point the way toward freedom on the far banks of the river Jordan. Yet it was not God's plan to have Moses cross the river. Instead he would call on Joshua to finish the work that Moses began. He would ask Joshua to take his people that final distance. Everyone in this room stands on the shoulders of many Moseses. Many Moseses fought and battled here at Howard University. They are courageous men and women who marched and fought and bled for the rights and freedoms we enjoy today. They have taken us many miles over an impossible journey. And to the young people here: you are members of the Joshua Generation. It is up to you to finish the work that they began. it is up to you to cross the river. When Joshua discovered the challenge he faced he had doubts and he had worries. He told God: 'Don't choose me, I'm not strong enough, I'm not wise enough; I don't have the training; I don't have enough experience.' God told Joshua not to fear; he said 'Be strong and have courage, for I am with you wherever you go.' Be strong and have courage. Be strong and have courage in the face of anything. Be strong and have courage and we will cross over into that promised land together. Thank you."

You acknowledge its in "every politician's toolbox" to tailor rhetoric to audiences - and you seem to hint that Obama's use of the tactic belies some disingenuousness particular to him - but you don't really say that.

AN OBAMA-EYE VIEW OF NEW YORK



This photo comes via the big Barack Obama rally in New York last night. His staff had a scissors lift (a.k.a. a cherry-picker) and was taking photographers -- and, by the end of the evening, print reporters as well -- up in it to get crowd shots. Obama communications director Robert Gibbs said 22,758 people registered online to attend the rally in Manhattan's Washington Square Park, right across the street from New York University, though it's impossible to know how many of them showed up. It was a very big rally, that's for sure.

Obama took the stage to the strains of Kanye West's "Touch the Sky" (a number of us political press dorks were uncertain of this, but -- love the New York press corps -- I confirmed it with a nearby reporter from Vibe Vixen) and left to the beat of Yellowcard's "Believe," which later Googling revealed is a 9-11 tribute song.

Obama's staff appears to have chosen the date, time, and site of the rally to conveniently coincide with both the Clinton Global Initiative here in New York and John Edwards' evening appearance on MTV in a Q & A session with MTV viewers and MySpace readers. The deeper reason for being in New York, of course, is that it has a lot of delegates and distributes them proportionately, and so, in a protracted nomination fight, could add to Obama's total even if Hillary Clinton wins her home state, as she is expected to do. It's coming up on the end of the quarter, as well, and Obama's large rallies have tended to serve as pretty effective low-dollar fundraisers, thanks to the dozens of official campaign T-shirt hawkers one finds at them. Heck -- within an hour of leaving the rally I received an Obama mobile text-message reminding me to buy a T-shirt , in case I had not done so at the rally, and giving me a 20 percent off discount code to do so.

The rally was clearly targeted toward the MTV demographic, from the choice of location right near a university to a special pre-show guest appearance by 24-year-old Chinese-American rapper Jin, who warmed up the crowd with his "Open Letter to Obama," perhaps the only hip-hop song ever written that name-checks Jack Abramoff.

Obama opened with some jokes about having lived in New York, which draw giggles from the crowd. "I used to hang out in Washington Square Park," he said, before giving his mic a quizzical look. "I know a little something about Greenwich Village. I was going to say I know some of the bars around here but I think my communications director was trying to cut that off."

He then went into his standard stump speech, with slightly more digs at Clinton than usual, and the first dig at Bill Richardson I've heard anyone bother to make (reciting a litany of people who tell voters false things, Obama said: "there are those who will tell you getting out of Iraq is painless").

After the speech, Obama's Echo Boom followers streamed out of the park, their faces beatific with the glow of political first love.

--Garance Franke-Ruta