cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 6 Sep, 2007 03:24 pm
The question is how good will Oprah be in gaining votes for Obama, vis a vis, her ability to sell books.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Thu 6 Sep, 2007 03:30 pm
When I read the article about it (I think but I'm not sure that it was the same article Brand X linked to), it talked about the "Oprah bump" -- an increase in approval ratings for a politician after he or she appeared on her program. I think there's no doubt that she'll have some effect, but I'm terribly curious about how much of an effect it ill be.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Fri 7 Sep, 2007 10:02 am
Ambiguous indications coming in from state polls when it comes to Obama's electability vs. that of the other candidates.

Eg, this from a new RBI Strategies & Research survey in Colorado:

Quote:
General election match-ups:

- Giuliani 50%, Clinton 44%
- Giuliani 46%, Obama 45%
- Romney 42%, Clinton 48%
- Romney 37%, Obama 50%


Eg, both Hillary and Obama are defeated by Giuliani, but Obama's margin of defeat is 5% smaller than Hillary's. And when it comes to Romney, Obama wins with a 7% bigger margin than Hillary.

But out yesterday was a new Quinnipiac University survey in Ohio:

Quote:
General Election Match-ups:

- Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
- Clinton 46%, McCain 41%
- Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%
- Clinton 50%, Romney 37%

- Obama 42%, Giuliani 41%
- Obama 41%, McCain 42%
- Obama 46%, Thompson 34%
- Obama 46%, Romney 32%

- Edwards 47%, Giuliani 38%
- Edwards 46%, McCain 38%
- Edwards 50%, Thompson 32%
- Edwards 50%, Romney 30%


Eg, Edwards and Hillary defeat Giuliani with a 6-8% bigger margin than Obama; and while Edwards and Hillary defeat McCain with a 5-8% margin, Obama loses by a point. In hypothetical races against Thompson and Romney, there's no real difference between Hillary and Obama, but Edwards does a lot better than either.

There have been few national match-up polls out recently, so hard to say what the big picture is.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Fri 7 Sep, 2007 10:43 am
This guy articulates it better than I can...



http://www.blueoregon.com/2007/09/redraw-the-map-.html


Quote:
Redraw the map with Senator Barack Obama
Charlie Burr
Every four years, the phrase bounces around election eve phone banks across the country: "This could be the closest election in our lifetime."

But a close election's the wrong way to think about our chances next year. With the right candidate and the right message, Democrats can win and win BIG. That's one of the reasons I'm supporting Senator Barack Obama for President.

More than any other candidate, Obama represents the best hope to move beyond the "fifty-plus-one" parity elections of the last two Presidential cycles. There are partisan strategic reasons for redrawing the electoral map - Republicans would rather compete on a polarized field - but also more fundamental, patriotic reasons. Simply put, we can get more done when we're not at each other's throats. And after eight years of inaction on our most critical issues, the next President will face unprecedented challenges, from climate change to health care to ending the war in Iraq.

Barack Obama is really the only candidate in either field who transcends a partisan filter. And here's the thing: he's not breaking through to Republicans, Independents, and Non-Voters by poll-driven triangulation or symbolic micro-issues, he's tapping into what David Kusnet calls "the lost art of speaking American." He's articulating a shared language of hope and opportunity while promoting our best progressive values. And he's articulating thoughtful policy priorities that you can dig into over at Barack Obama.

For some candidates, working across party lines can become an end to itself. But throughout Senator Obama's career, he's worked with members of both parties to enact legislation to promote principled social change, improve people's lives, and reform our democratic process. In Illinois, he brought Democrats and Republicans together to require videotaping of interrogations and confessions in all death penalty cases. He worked across party lines to expand children's health care, and in the U.S. Senate, he's the leading advocate for laws to crack down on Abramoff-style abuses. Long before running for President, he helped pass the some of the most sweeping ethics reforms in Illinois history.

To some D.C. insiders, Obama's years of experience in the Illinois State Senate -- his work expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and expanding markets for clean energy -- don't really count. But take just one of the critical issues facing our country: the fight for energy independence. The progress we've made developing new sources of clean energy has been in spite of the federal government, not because of it. The states, acting as labaratories of innovation, have been where the action is. As a President with state legislative experience, Obama will take the best from the states to grow our biofuels sector, diversify our sources of home-grown power, and set our nation on a course that reduces global warming and creates a more sustainable economy.

A word about our changing media and political landscape: Next year will be unforgiving to candidates who come across too political, too slick, or too-clever-by-half. (More than any one issue, this is really the ice on Gordon Smith's wings here at home.) Voters sense Obama will look out for them, is in the race for the right reasons, and is the type of principled leader they trust in their gut.

It is also my hope that the next election be about someting larger than school uniforms and micro-politics; we should have a debate about who's best suited to repair our country's standing in the world. To date, Obama's the one who's captured the world's attention more than any other. Imagine the goodwill we'll generate as pictures of Obama's first trip to Europe or Africa bounce around the world.

This year, we've got an unusually strong Democratic field, one of the best of my lifetime. John Edwards has dumped the consultants who advised him to support the war, and he's a much stronger candidate now without them. Hillary Clinton has assembled a truly talented and seasoned staff, but ultimately, she's the one on the ballot. Both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have learned from past mistakes. Edwards' campaign continues to innovate, and Clinton's discipline continues to impress.

But Obama is getting it right the first time. He's got the instincts, judgement and talent to take on our most challenging and complex problems. He's running the type of campaign that'll help build a solid governing majority. And he's the one best suited to repair our country's standing and moral authority in the world.

I had the opportunity to see Senator Obama a few months ago at a houseparty and rally in Tampa, part of the pivot swing area a campaign must win to take Florida. I arrived undecided and left an enthusiastic supporter. Come check him out and judge for yourself tomorrow night at the Convention Center. See you there!
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Fri 7 Sep, 2007 10:53 am
Regarding Oprah, her influence and guidance to his campaign will be great. If it becomes much more than that, I anticipate lots of comments along the line of "democrats are so weak they can't even run for office by themselves. Hillary drags Bill around with her and now Obama has Oprah holding his hand."
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 10:11 am
This Obama/Oprah thing is silly, and it's getting silly in the news.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 10:59 am
Brand X, Don't underestimate the power of Oprah. She's an amazing women with much influence in the US (and in Europe).
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 11:02 am
Taken from sun.menloschool.org:

Crossing LinesOne reason why Oprah has been so influential in American society is because she has been able to reach all different people: not just African Americans and not just women. In other words, she has crossed racial and gender lines despite her being an African American woman. Cassandra Hayes, senior editor for Black Enterprise, said "People don't tend to look at Oprah as just a black talk show host. She cuts across all marks and all genres"(5). She has made a difference in the lives of people of all gender and race. CNN movie reviewer Paul Tatara said in an article: "Winfrey's ability to communicate with the unseen millions on a homey, grass-roots level is just about unequaled in the history of television. She's like an empowering Arthur Godfrey. She's also the first black woman to become a major influence in the world of entertainment, and she rightfully receives loads of praise for it"(6). Her ability to cross these strict lines that American society has placed on its citizens has made her so incredibly influential and successful.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 11:17 am
It's true she has a 'congregation' more than an audience which is a silly reflection on the electorate.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 11:27 am
Brand X: "...silly reflection on the electorate" is a mouth-full. We're seeing the damage being perpetrated by Bush, because the "silly electorate" voted him into office twice - with some help from the Supreme Court. His legacy of the Iraq War will go down in history as the worst decision any president made.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 12:13 pm
Bush doesn't have anything to do with Oprabama IMO....but if you insist I'm sure Oprah's silly minions will do whatever she tells them to just like Rush Limbaugh's silly minions.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 02:21 pm
Brand X wrote:
Bush doesn't have anything to do with Oprabama IMO....but if you insist I'm sure Oprah's silly minions will do whatever she tells them to just like Rush Limbaugh's silly minions.



I was responding to your "silly electorate" comment. Shocked
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 03:28 pm
I was listening to some political discussion group on the radio earlier today. They suggested that the important thing Oprah brought to the 'party' was not voters - but money. Today's event should raise $3,000,000 for Mr. Obama's campaign.

~~~

I was curious (after listening to the interview) about what Oprah's 'constituency' is. Oprah.com tells us

Quote:
Demographics
Female: 91%
Married: 66%
Working: 64%
Homeowner: 77%
With some college education: 82%
Raising children: 42%
Average Age: 45 years old
Average HHI $80,000


for the website.

http://www.oprah.com/adsales/audience.html

~~~

Is that a new group for Mr. Obama? (I guess I'll have to go look at one of nimh's charts)

~~~

(and while I was poking around looking for Oprah's audience demographics ... from 2000 The road to the White House goes through Oprah
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 05:21 pm
Quote:
I was listening to some political discussion group on the radio earlier today. They suggested that the important thing Oprah brought to the 'party' was not voters - but money.


Frankly, I doubt that very much. Obama's fund raising organization seems to have been doing very well and there's no reason I can see to worry that the levels he will be receiving in the future, compared to others dem or republican, will disadvantage his campaign (it's a given that more is always good).

But advantages will surely accrue from any increase in the turnout of black voters, particularly black women. After all, where electoral hankypanky has been going on by republicans, it has frequently been associated with reducing the black vote. And one could easily suppose that the african american portion of her female demographic (stats bethie notes) are the demographic you want to get to for organizing and networking in their community.

As Oprah's site demonstrates (I hadn't really thought about this before), her contact with the public reaches far past TV including radio, web presence, and her magazine. How many Americans don't know who she is? How many don't know who republican candidate Thompson is? Just as important, she has enormous credibility and trust with her audience. We know she can motivate and influence her audience as witnessed by book sales. From a marketing viewpoint, there is no one I can think of (an opinion leader or influential celebrity) who might be more helpful in promoting a candidacy.



Here's some stats for nimh or others http://groups.msn.com/BlackRepublicanNetwork/blackvote.msnw
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 05:30 pm
ps

If the Obama campaign is smart, the older generation of black activists (Jesse and Sharpton, for example) will be encouraged to stay back and others like Oprah and, imagining here, Tiger Woods will be placed up front.

This would strengthen the notion of "new way/fresh start", would position the campaign with accomplishment and winning and goal achievement (acutely for the black portion of the electorate), and would surely increase voter turnout and enthusiasm.

One other advantage. Smear campaigns will not go down well if used against individuals like Oprah or Tiger Woods.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 05:35 pm
blatham, Good idea, but Sharpton and Jackson like the limelight too much!
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 05:40 pm
blatham wrote:
But advantages will surely accrue from any increase in the turnout of black voters, particularly black women. After all, where electoral hankypanky has been going on by republicans, it has frequently been associated with reducing the black vote. And one could easily suppose that the african american portion of her female demographic (stats bethie notes) are the demographic you want to get to for organizing and networking in their community.


Oprah's female demographic is apparently more white than anything else. There are actually quite a few entertaining articles/blog posts on that particular subject.

~~~

Mr. Obama will be on Tyra Banks' show later this month - maybe she's got a more useful demographic.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 05:59 pm
beth

I understand that. And if you watch the crowds following Tiger around a golf course, you don't see many black faces. But a lot more than before he entered the picture.

Given things as they stand now with republicans looking so unappealing, if the dems manage to get significant increases in blacks getting to the polls, along with even more women than they normally get, plus moderates or independents drawn in by the presence of people like Oprah, or Tiger, and Obama himself (not turned off by Jesse's baggage, for example), I think they'll crush the opposition.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 06:11 pm
I wouldn't be surprised to see the shift to the Democrats, just not sure it will be to Mr. Obama.

What the panellists were saying this afternoon was that Oprah's demographic was similar to Obama's - so she wouldn't bring in many new voters for him - thus the money being the key benefit she could bring to him. He can advertise to that lovely untapped demographic with the money she can help raise.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 8 Sep, 2007 07:45 pm
Winfrey holds fundraiser for Obama

By ALLISON HOFFMAN, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 38 minutes ago



Oprah Winfrey was rolling out the red carpet Saturday for Barack Obama and the high-wattage stars invited to a gala "celebration" expected to raise $3 million for the Democratic presidential candidate.

The most powerful woman in show business was set to celebrate her favorite candidate at her palatial estate in this coastal enclave south of Santa Barbara. Tickets to the sold-out private event went for $2,300 apiece, keeping them within campaign finance limits. Stevie Wonder was scheduled to perform for the guests, who were expected to include actors Will Smith, Jamie Foxx and Halle Berry. By late afternoon other guests, including actors Linda Evans and Dennis Haysbert and TV director Paris Barclay, had arrived.

Visitors were bused to Winfrey's secluded home from an equestrian center about 10 miles away. A solid line of limousines, BMWs, Bentleys and a few hybrid Priuses disgorged well-dressed guests. Some sported stiletto heels despite official instructions to wear flat shoes for walking on Winfrey's meadow.
0 Replies
 
 

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