Ambiguous indications coming in from state polls when it comes to Obama's electability vs. that of the other candidates.
Eg, this from a new RBI Strategies & Research survey in
Colorado:
Quote:General election match-ups:
- Giuliani 50%, Clinton 44%
- Giuliani 46%, Obama 45%
- Romney 42%, Clinton 48%
- Romney 37%, Obama 50%
Eg, both Hillary and Obama are defeated by Giuliani, but Obama's margin of defeat is 5% smaller than Hillary's. And when it comes to Romney, Obama wins with a 7% bigger margin than Hillary.
But out yesterday was a new Quinnipiac University survey in
Ohio:
Quote:General Election Match-ups:
- Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
- Clinton 46%, McCain 41%
- Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%
- Clinton 50%, Romney 37%
- Obama 42%, Giuliani 41%
- Obama 41%, McCain 42%
- Obama 46%, Thompson 34%
- Obama 46%, Romney 32%
- Edwards 47%, Giuliani 38%
- Edwards 46%, McCain 38%
- Edwards 50%, Thompson 32%
- Edwards 50%, Romney 30%
Eg, Edwards and Hillary defeat Giuliani with a 6-8% bigger margin than Obama; and while Edwards and Hillary defeat McCain with a 5-8% margin, Obama loses by a point. In hypothetical races against Thompson and Romney, there's no real difference between Hillary and Obama, but Edwards does a lot better than either.
There have been few national match-up polls out recently, so hard to say what the big picture is.