Obama '08?

@georgeob1,

I want to be there to witness that event! Mr. Green

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

I think it will be downhill for him over the remaining 16 months. This, of course is only my opinion based on observation and intuition. I'm sure you and Cyclo can dredge up some polls that appear to contradict my perceptions. 4% shifts in poll results over a period of months are commonplace, and 4% is more than enough for a decisive change (in either direction).

I'll leave the polls to Cycloptichorn. I don't put any reliance on polling numbers this far ahead of an election. A lot can happen between now and November of next year. I will say, however, that your observation and intuition looks a lot like plain old confirmation bias from where I'm sitting.

georgeob1 wrote:

Do come to San Francisco. We can both watch to see whose head explodes..

I'd be delighted.

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@joefromchicago,

Quote:

A lot can happen between now and November of next year.

A lot can happen in the next month.

The GOP could drive the country into the ditch by not raising the debt ceiling and then Obama will probably be re-elected with super-majorities in both houses.

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@MontereyJack,

MJackoff, that O-boy & Bitch ticket you are championing would seal the fate of what's left of the American dream... I'll just assume
that you hate America and that you are OK with it's destruction from within. You live on the DNC plantation, you are one of their slaves.

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@H2O MAN,

H2O MAN wrote:

You live on the DNC plantation, you are one of their slaves.

Looks like H2O cracker is really taking that old adage, "write what you know," to heart.

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@Gargamel,

Gargoyle, you are aware that it's the left that did not want to see an end to slavery in the US and it's
the left that continues to enslave their 'moocher class' supporters... you do know this don't you?

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You've already reached the frothing-at-the-mouth stage, I see, H2 O-boy. Knew kou would. You can assume any damnfool counterfactual you want--you've been doing that for years, which is why you live in the fantasy land you do.

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@MontereyJack,

I see you killed off your few remaining brain cells over the weekend, MJackoff.

You are the epitome of an ignoranus.

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@H2O MAN,

H2O MAN wrote:

Gargoyle, you are aware that it's the left that did not want to see an end to slavery in the US and it's
the left that continues to enslave their 'moocher class' supporters... you do know this don't you?

Ha ha! You're giving me a history lesson?

Only a semi-literate douchebag from the Georiga pines would apply our contemporary political spectrum to the politics of 150 years ago. Lincoln, and any Republican prior to the New Deal, would vomit everywhere if he knew you were associating him with the morons that run today's GOP.

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@Gargamel,

Gargoyle, your poor understanding of American history
makes it crystal clear that you need several history lessons.

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@joefromchicago,

joefromchicago wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
I think it will be downhill for him over the remaining 16 months. This, of course is only my opinion based on observation and intuition. I'm sure you and Cyclo can dredge up some polls that appear to contradict my perceptions. 4% shifts in poll results over a period of months are commonplace, and 4% is more than enough for a decisive change (in either direction).

I'll leave the polls to Cycloptichorn. I don't put any reliance on polling numbers this far ahead of an election. A lot can happen between now and November of next year. I will say, however, that your observation and intuition looks a lot like plain old confirmation bias from where I'm sitting.

georgeob1 wrote:
Do come to San Francisco. We can both watch to see whose head explodes..

I'd be delighted.

Just to make it clear, I've never claimed that any poll has any significant predictive ability for an election a year away.

However, they can give us clues as to the actual attitudes of people on various issues at this time; and it was to this that I referred earlier in this thread.

Cycloptichorn

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@parados,

That's my view of the situation too! Not increasing the debt ceiling is going to impact everybody - including seniors and service personnel, but more importantly, the investors. When they see their investments tank, that's going to be the final straw that breaks the back of the GOP.

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I agree that polling this far out is of little real value. I could try to make an argument for it but I doubt it would convince anyone.
In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in the Electoral College 286-252.
In 2008, Obama/Biden won against McCain/Palin 365-173 and the Dems got 53% of the popular vote vs 46% for the Repubs.
Nine states flipped from the Repubs in 2004 to the Dems in 2008, resulting in 2008 being a bit of a landslide despite the popular votes being relatively close.
In mid-April, 2011, Larry Sabato - while readily admitting that it was early - rated the races for each of the jurisdictions as falling into one of seven categories, with the electoral votes in {x}:
Safe R {105}, Likely R {65}, Leans R {10} = {180}
Tossup {111}
Safe D {182}, Likely D {14}, Leans D {51} = {247}

Needed to elect outright {270}
Other prominent pollsters start with projections which are similar.
Here is a list of the states {along with their electoral votes in 2012} and how the (popular vote) played out in 2008 for Obama vs McCain.
Colorado {9} (54-45)
Florida {29} (51-48)
Iowa {6} (54-45)
Nevada {6} (55-43)
New Hampshire {4} (54-45)
Virginia {13} (53-46)
I am putting those 6 states with {67} electoral votes in the Obama column although I am not at all confident about Florida. That would put him at {314}.
Indiana {11} (50-49)
North Carolina {15} (50-50)
Ohio {18} (51-47)
I have those 3 switching back {44} to the Repubs for a total of {224}.

The media loves to use popular votes in its coverage. The truth, though, is not how many votes a candidate gets but where he/she gets them.

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@cicerone imposter,

Me too, would enjoy being at the exploding heads a2k SF meeting..

As most on this thread know, I was an Obama supporter. I am less so now, but have no one in mind to jump ship to. Indeed, that's too scary a thought to contemplate and I'm loathe to just toss my vote to a campaign that can't win - though I understand doing that.

Also, putting myself in his place and given all the same conflicting advice quickly, I don't know that I'd have done any better. I'm disappointed with his elasticity toward the right and failure as a terrific speaker to really use his bully pulpit at the time. I see him as reading his panels of experts and choosing, and not using his own noggin.

Who was it who said recently, something like 'we have two parties, a middle right one and one that has lost its mind'....

Anyway, I think of Hillary as further into the military adventures than Obama is. Perhaps that isn't justified but it is my impression. I don't know if there is still enough sheer hatred (as opposed to reasoned dislike) out there now to make her unelectable on that basis.

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@realjohnboy,

That's the key to winning; where the winners comes from makes the difference. That's the reason why Florida has become an important state in the presidential elections with 27 electoral votes.

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This issue is somewhat related to Obama and the next election; how much further will the GOP demand that we cut the budget that results in cutting our school funding. Most, if not all, of our schools are cutting back on programs and hours for our children. Their single-minded rhetoric to cut expenses without raising taxes is hurting the future and our children's education.

How can conservatives continue to support such foolishness?

From the NYT.

Quote:

As Budgets Are Trimmed, Time in Class Is Shortened
By SAM DILLON
Published: July 5, 2011

After several years of state and local budget cuts, thousands of school districts across the nation are gutting summer-school programs, cramming classes into four-day weeks or lopping days off the school year, even though virtually everyone involved in education agrees that American students need more instruction time.

Los Angeles slashed its budget for summer classes to $3 million from $18 million last year, while Philadelphia, Milwaukee and half the school districts in North Carolina have eviscerated their programs or zeroed them out. A scattering of rural districts in New Mexico, Idaho and other states will be closed on Fridays or Mondays come September. And in California, where some 600 of the 1,100 local districts have shortened the calendar by up to five days over the past two years, lawmakers last week authorized them to cut seven days more if budgets get tighter.

“Instead of increasing school time, in a lot of cases we’ve been pushing back against efforts to shorten not just the school day but the week and year,” said Justin Hamilton, a spokesman for the federal Department of Education. “We’re trying to prevent what exists now from shrinking even further.”

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It is interesting to speculate about the outcome. I recognize that there is enough time and opportunity remaining to significantly change all our approaches to the questions; polls; electoral vote counting or intuition about evolving popular perceptions. There is enough evidences of all these approaches leading to forecasts that were overturned by the actual outcomes to make any reasonable forecaster cautious.

However, I have come to believe that there is the odor of Jimmy Carter to Obama - that of a self-absorbed leader who is both out of touch with popular sentiment and inclined to blame the public for not seeing things his way.

I detect impressions like these fom many aquaintences, most of whom were enthusiastic (come even almost fanatic) Obama supporters two years ago.

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@georgeob1,

It can be an affectation George--being a "fanatic". All that "fair-weather friend" bullshit. Riding the wave.

Real fanatics are not at all like that. But I do allow for the "even almost" which has it both ways. Mailer spoke of maggots in the smiles. "Even almost" is maggots in the rhetoric.

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

However, I have come to believe that there is the odor of Jimmy Carter to Obama - that of a self-absorbed leader who is both out of touch with popular sentiment and inclined to blame the public for not seeing things his way.

This is why I say polling data matters - not because it's predictive, but because it helps us understand the truth of situations.

In this case, Carter's approval ratings at this point in his term were a full 15 points lower than Obama's approval ratings are at this point. Obama's numbers have been stable at this point for more than a year now - almost 2 years, actually.

There's a huge difference between 45% and 30%. Your friends and acquaintances may be disappointed in Obama, but the idea that they aren't going to vote for or support him? Just a wish on your part. They certainly aren't telling pollsters that.

Cycloptichorn

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I too tend to think that's a case of wishful sniffing on georgeob's part.

The odor I smell is Newt Gingrich and the Contract on America.

The polls show that Americans by more than 2 to 1 think any budget balancing should include a return to higher tax rates on the rich--the rollback was according to the Republikcans at the time supposed to be temporary anyway--reneging on their word again.

The more the Tea Party types dig in their heels and refuse any concession on the widely popular view that income over 250,000 should be taxed at the same rate it was under Clinton, when GDP grew far faster than under the Bush tax cuts, which allegedly were supposed to stir business growth (check out the graph H2Oboy posted for confirmation of that point), the more Americans are going to see them as the obstacle to recovery that they are, just as happened with the Newtster. So far they're choosing to play to their small base and be on a collision course with the rest of the country. And that's just going to strengthen Obama's hand. Good.

1 Reply

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