Obama '08?

@MontereyJack,

MJ, Your analysis about polls seems to be right on target. I studied statistics in college, but that was about ten lifetimes ago. I don't remember the details of the bell curve, but I've read many reports about the 3% +/- consistently for many years.

BTW, your trying to explain this to okie is a lost cause; his brain is imprinted with Ras for everything; he never deviates - not even by 1%.

1 Reply

@revelette,

And you are going to rely upon Nate Silver to tell us what is unbiased ???? You are a hoot, revelette.

3 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

MJ, Your analysis about polls seems to be right on target. I studied statistics in college, but that was about ten lifetimes ago. I don't remember the details of the bell curve, but I've read many reports about the 3% +/- consistently for many years.

BTW, your trying to explain this to okie is a lost cause; his brain is imprinted with Ras for everything; he never deviates - not even by 1%.

Nobody denies a margin of error in polls, imposter.

1 Reply

@okie,

I didn't say you denied a margin of error in polls; rather that any info that detracts from Ras polls are ignored by you.

0 Replies

@okie,

okie wrote:

And you are going to rely upon Nate Silver to tell us what is unbiased ???? You are a hoot, revelette.

Versus relying upon you?

There's no evidence that Nate has ever done anything but accurately report statistics. If you think there is, present it.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@ican711nm,

CHECKING AGAIN

1 Reply

@okie,

I don't even know who Nate Silver is.

However, was his facts in error? If they were not, biased or not is not relevant.

I found his article again in the link below.

http://civicforumpac.com/nate-silver-rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate/

Another similar one on the same subject:

NYT

0 Replies

@okie,

okie wrote:

And you are going to rely upon Nate Silver to tell us what is unbiased?

the results of the surveys do that. In this case, he's simply reporting the results.

Not saying that's all he ever does - but in this case, the results fall against Rasmussen.

0 Replies

@MontereyJack,

Quote:

It's been a couple years since I looked into it, okie, but as I remember, Rasmussen has been patting itself on the back because it did better in ONE election, not all of them.

But they DIDN'T do better. They did better in a preliminary analysis that used preliminary vote totals that were off by over 1% from the final certified totals. These idiots keep trotting out the meme that rasmussen was better than anyone else when in reality they came in 3rd or 4th using the real percentages.

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Not only that, but even Rasmussen has Obama's approval at 52-47% today - the highest he's recorded in that poll in over 15 months.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

The name Quintan Wiktorowicz does not roll off the tongue easily. He began working today in a senior level position with the National Security Commission.
Prior to joining the government he was in academia in the UK. Based on interviews he conducted he concluded that the stereotypes many have about Muslims and radicalization (to the point of resorting to violence) is misguided.
Very religious Muslims are the most resistant to radicalization while those with a shallower grounding in Islam are more susceptible to radicalization.
That makes sense to me.
The policy implication for us seems to be to reach out (I hate that phrase) to the fundamentalist Muslims who have a better understanding of Islam then the converts to the faith.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

rjb, I blame the media in our country for not presenting any balance about Muslims in general. I've traveled to many Muslim countries, have Muslim friends, and find them more peaceful than many Americans I meet on a2k.

Most Americans blame all Muslims for 9-11, but fail to apply that same standard on what Americans have done around the world.

Disgusting!

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

The only thing wrong with Nate Silver is that revelette cited him. Only those people cited by okie/ican have imprimater.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

I have to agree that the most religious Muslims ought to be the least susceptible to radical ideas.

0 Replies

@ican711nm,

CHECKING AGAIN AND AGAIN

0 Replies

ican says:

Quote:

CHECKING AGAIN AND AGAIN

What is ican checking so feverishly again and again and again?
Does anybody know?
Does anybody care?
Whatever it is, it seems to be keeping him from posting the same dumb cut-and-pastes AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.
Thank the gods for small mercies.
You just keep checking, boy.

2 Replies

@MontereyJack,

I went back 3 pages and could find nothing, MJ. I, too, hope he will keep CHECKING.
Meanwhile, I am curious about the movement to repeal the 17th amendment to our Constitution. We have some self-professed Constitutional experts here who could, perhaps, explain the logic of that.

1 Reply

@MontereyJack,

MontereyJack wrote:

What is ican checking so feverishly again and again and again?

I changed my internet provider. I used those CHECKING POSTS to diagnose problems I encountered after the change, and then checked my solutions.

So I'll follow this post with a new cut and paste post lest you not have something else to complain about.

1 Reply

Complaining? Who was complaining?

0 Replies

Quote:

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=20232&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
Health Care Tax Filing Rule Burdens Small Businesses
The health care law includes a provision that requires even the smallest businesses to send a 1099 form to the IRS whenever they buy more than $600 a year in goods or services from a single company or individual. The IRS estimates the provision could affect 40 million businesses, charities, nonprofit associations and other entities that would be required to file the additional reports, says the Dallas Morning News.

Andy Ellard, who runs a 20-employee manufacturing shop in Dallas, estimates the provision will take 160 hours of his bookkeeper's time. After hearing from business people like Ellard, most members of Congress and President Barack Obama agree, the 1099 provision needs to be repealed before it takes effect in 2012. Attempts to strip it from the law last year won majorities in the House and the Senate but still failed to get through, says the Morning News.

Democrats, using estimates provided by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, say the health care law as passed will save $143 billion between 2010 and 2019.

Republicans have said that the law would raise spending on health care and that the budget office used faulty assumptions.

The 1099 provision came out of the Senate Finance Committee as Democrats were trying to find ways of lowering the cost of extending health insurance to 32 million more Americans. The IRS has said it will not require 1099 filings when businesses make payments with credit and debit cards, since those are now going to be filed with the IRS by credit card companies under a new, separate law.

Source: "Health Care Tax Filing Rule Burdens Small Businesses," Dallas Morning News, January 11, 2011.

[/quote]

1 Reply

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