Obama '08?

Interesting article. Good point about how ground is probably going to be broken, no matter what. (Didn't mention Richardson, who is a Governor, not of Arizona, but who is Latino.)

The end seems to be contradicting rather than supporting Bear's point, though:

Quote:

If Iraq is roughly where we are now or, God forbid, worse, it will be very tough for Republicans to hold onto the White House, regardless of who the nominees are.

Of the Dem possibilities, who is more "wartime" than Obama? I don't think Hillary or Edwards are that much more "wartime." Richardson maybe.

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Another thought, apropos of nothing in particular except for looking at Selma pictures:

While hopefully it's not necessary anymore, will start with a disclaimer that I respect Obama a great deal as a person and as a politician, and it is because of that respect that I am interested in more esoteric points of what is more and less likely to get him to the White House.

I think the white shirt thing is something that he has developed as a signature and I think it works really well for him. There is a regular-guy, let's-get-to-work aspect, and is also just really striking in pictures, the tall guy with the white shirt standing out against the sea of dark suits.

http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d130/sozobe/obamaselma.jpg

(Screenshot from his website, couldn't get a usable url.)

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Hillary was trying to 'out black' Obama in a really pathetic attempt.

This round she is helpless in getting the black vote support that hubby Bill did....at least until Obama doesn't get the nomination.

If Hillary is nominated she will definitely choose Obama as a running mate to get that vote back.

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It's possible. I can't see that a relatively inexperienced groundbreaker would choose a relatively inexperienced groundbreaker as her VP -- seems like she'd be going for ballast, not an amplification of her own vulnerabilities.

Plus, if Obama isn't the nominee, then her competition is the Republican nominee. As in, even if a lot of people like Obama better than Hillary, that doesn't mean that if Obama isn't an option they wouldn't like Hillary better than (McCain, Giuliani, whomever).

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It would be interesting to see Obama and Giuliani get the nominations from their party. The other candidates don't interest me, and my write-in vote will be for Kucinich.

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right now it's **** for dinner no matter what. It's early though.

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That pic looks like a page from a "Where's Jesse Jackson?" book.

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sozobe wrote:

I think the white shirt thing is something that he has developed as a signature and I think it works really well for him. There is a regular-guy, let's-get-to-work aspect, and is also just really striking in pictures, the tall guy with the white shirt standing out against the sea of dark suits.

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I see it more like "This is a ceremonial moment, everyone is going to wear dark suits, so I'll wear something white to stand out." Hillary Clinton did the same thing. You wouldn't see that on Obama's website though. The staff has made sure to Clinton out of every picture of the march. I wouldn't have thought they're so petty-minded over there. (Hillary Clinton's page, to be fair, is just as petty the other way round.)

Another thing that took me aback is that in his speech in the church, Obama traded in the steady flow of his voice that comes so naturally to him for a fake civil-rights-leader stakkato. I hope Obama hasn't hired some sleek PR consultant who is now beginning to script him. It is exactly his un-scriptedness that makes Obama interesting. It would be a pity to lose that.

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Bi-Polar Bear wrote:

right now it's **** for dinner no matter what. It's early though.

What do you have against Obama, that he should be included on the menu as "****"?

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Thomas, he's often in shirtsleeves -- I do think he did it on purpose to stand out (and did see the pics of Hillary in her pale green pantsuit), but he's doing it a lot, and I think it works.

February 2nd:

http://images.theglobeandmail.com/archives/RTGAM/images/20070221/wobama0221/0221obama.jpg

Katrina relief, not sure of date:

http://www.hcjic.org/images/Photos/obama-clinton.jpg

in Kenya:

http://www.djibwatch.org/images%5Cpersonnes%5Cetranger%5CObama_kenya.jpg

February 20th, in L.A.:

http://images.scotsman.com/2007/02/22/2007-02-22T013707Z_01_NOOTR_RTRIDSP_2_OUKEN-UK-OBAMA.jpg

no context

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/allpolitics/0410/gallery.off.topic/gall.obama.jpg

Anyway, you get the idea. Basically, he seems to take off his suit jacket quickly in outdoor, warm situations, and whips off his tie and rolls up his sleeves if the occasion isn't too stuffy. And he usually has on a white shirt, sometimes light blue. (Seems be getting more reliably white lately.) Just seems to be emerging as a signature, and I think that's good (that he has a signature, and that this is it -- the connotations are good).

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Quote:

Another thing that took me aback is that in his speech in the church, Obama traded in the steady flow of his voice that comes so naturally to him for a fake civil-rights-leader stakkato.

Yes he did.

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I can't really comment on that one, but couldn't it be mode-shifting? Speaking to one's audience? The audience in question seemed to be reacting well.

Remember that "civil rights leader staccato" is frequently "black pastor cadences," and Obama has said that his own black pastor is a major linguistic influence (the phrase "Audacity of Hope" came from him, etc).

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sozobe wrote:

I can't really comment on that one, but couldn't it be mode-shifting? Speaking to one's audience? The audience in question seemed to be reacting well.

That's true, I'll have to give you that. But I don't think they would have reacted any worse if he had just spoken the way he always speaks, which is what Hillary Clinton did with good success.

sozobe wrote:

Remember that "civil rights leader staccato" is frequently "black pastor cadences," and Obama has said that his own black pastor is a major linguistic influence (the phrase "Audacity of Hope" came from him, etc).

I can't really offer any informed speculation about Obama's motivation for speaking that way. I can only offer my subjective reaction. And my subjective reaction was the same as my reaction to politicians from North Germany who think they have to speak Bavarian to a Bavarian audience. Almost inevitably, they will miss the nuances of the dialect just closely enough to be embarrassing. Obama managed not to be embarrassing. But he didn't seem on his home turf rhetorically. And that's a shame, because he's very good on his home turf.

But again, all this is just my own subjective reaction.

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sozobe wrote:

Anyway, you get the idea. Basically, he seems to take off his suit jacket quickly in outdoor, warm situations, and whips off his tie and rolls up his sleeves if the occasion isn't too stuffy. And he usually has on a white shirt, sometimes light blue. (Seems be getting more reliably white lately.) Just seems to be emerging as a signature, and I think that's good (that he has a signature, and that this is it -- the connotations are good).

I agree. Your sequence of photos persuaded me.

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How y'all doin?

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sozobe wrote:

Basically, he seems to take off his suit jacket quickly in outdoor, warm situations, and whips off his tie and rolls up his sleeves if the occasion isn't too stuffy.

also does it when it's not warm and others are wearing jackets/coats. Looks a bit stagey in those situations.

Politics/marketing - the brand needs to be clear.

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I see what you're saying, Thomas. That's what I don't really have enough information on. As in, if he DOES regularly talk like that, in private, or at his church, or when he was a community organizer or whatever, and he was just shifting to that mode, I don't think there's anything wrong with it. If he was trying it on just for the occasion, that's more wince-inducing.

As in, maybe what we usually see (speaking to the general public) is its own mode, no more inherently natural than the one he was in to give speeches in Selma.

But I can't tell from what I've seen which it is.

I know that I have at least three and maybe more modes that are all natural but are very different from each other.

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sozobe wrote:

I see what you're saying, Thomas. That's what I don't really have enough information on.

I understand. Just keep it in mind so you can remember me in case you ever read a speech where he says: "I have been to the mountain top! And I have seeeeeen ... the promised land!" (Just kidding. I know full well he's not that plump.)

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ehBeth wrote:

also does it when it's not warm and others are wearing jackets/coats. Looks a bit stagey in those situations.

Politics/marketing - the brand needs to be clear.

I was wondering about that after watching the video (some coats, hats, etc.). It seems like it's upper 60's/ low 70's in Selma this week, and was definitely sunny. Maybe it's just that the Chicago guy finds that balmier than the Southerners did. :-P

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Listening to Obama and Hillary in Selma was hilarious to say the least. Especially Hillary, as she really did bomb out big time. She needs to take a few lessons to get the inflections and accent alot better, or Obama is going to literally wipe her out.

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