Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 03:37 pm
@okie,
Quote:


There you go again. You say you understand that, but then you go ahead and assert that cutting tax rates necesarily and always leads to lower amount of money collected, which is wrong and you know it.


Yes it does, and you and I could do any number of models to prove it. The only argument that you have is the silly 'laffer' argument (which really is a laugh) and that doesn't work unless you assume 99% taxation. It is a useless argument which is not mirrored by any real-world data.

Quote:
It does not always or necessarily one follow the other.


Yes, it does. How can you not understand this?

Quote:


There are 2 factors in the tax revenue equation, tax rate and the economy on which it is applied, and tax rates affect the economy, that is an inescapable and absolute fact.


Tax rates don't effect the economy to any great degree unless you push them to their extremes. Rate differences of 5-10% make no meaningful difference in the way individuals live their lives or run their businesses. Historically we have experienced growth which was just as strong under much higher tax rates as we do under our current ones. Your model says that should be completely untrue, but it isn't. The inescapable conclusion is that your model is wrong.

I quoted quite a few sources showing that you were wrong; did you bother to read any of them? It seems not.

An experiment:

You have a tax rate of 15% on a million dollars of income. This garners 150k in revenues for the government - 15% of 1 million is 150k.

You want to lower taxes to 10%. This takes 50k of revenues out of the government's pocket. In order to make up that 50k, the income has to rise by half to make up the difference. 10% of 1.5 million is 150k. And that's just to break even!

Unless you are claiming that tax cuts cause our economy to grow by gigantic amounts - something there is no historical proof of - then tax cuts don't pay for themselves, period. And I think you will have an extremely hard time proving using any math, logic or historical data set that they do.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 03:43 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

When you cut the tax rates you cut the amount of taxes collected. Cutting tax rates never leads to higher rates collected, ever. It just gives the economy a new, lower point for the rates collected to rise from - just like they always rise over time with a growing population.

We have been over this many, many times, Okie. You are forwarding a political viewpoint, not one which is supported by economists. Need I link to Conservative columnists and economists proving you wrong on this point? I'd be happy to.

Cycloptichorn

The assertion that curring tax rates NEVER leads to an increase in the dollar value of taxes collected is simply false.


No, it's not false, George. See the links I posted on the last page of several Conservative economists specifically claiming that they do NOT do this. Please also refer to the post above this one, in which a simple math game shows that the economy would have to grow by gigantic amounts to garner more revenues under lower taxes - something that doesn't happen.

Quote:
One can argue endlessly about specific cases - with & without adjustments for inflation or populatin growth , however the underlying principle that government taxation of businesses and individuals removes funds that would otherwise be spent or invested in the creation of new economic activity - is beyond doubt.


It has nothing to do with adjusting for inflation or population growth at all. Though presenting the numbers from the Reagan admin. without doing so, as if it was proof positive that tax cuts = higher revenues, is a falsehood, yes.

The truth is that the math just doesn't add up. You guys have theories about job creation, taxation and the economy which don't work when you try and logically apply them. What your theories do ensure though is lower taxes for the rich - every single time. Hard to avoid the conclusion that this is the true goal, because I know you know how to do math, George. Try doing the math and tell me I'm wrong.

The rest of your post is Boilerplate George and there's nothing there worth responding to. Like Okie, I challenge you to provide evidence that cutting taxes leads to higher revenues. As Ramesh Ponnuru stated in the piece I quoted on the last page, cutting taxes can be compatible with higher revenues but are not a cause of higher revenues - ever. They are a cause of lower government revenues. I could pick any point in history in which a major tax cut took place and show you this with data; can you do the same for your argument? Nope.

Cycloptichorn
ican711nm
 
  0  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 04:02 pm
@parados,
1980 Federal Receipts do not increase in quantity or value because of later inflation.

Subsequent total yearly Federal Receipts do not increase, because subsequent inflation rates decreased. Nor will subsequent yearly Federal Receipts increase, because of any subsequent inflation rate increase.

Federal receipts increased 1980 to 1988, because of increases in private and business incomes. Those increases occurred because of tax rate decreases over the period 1980 to 1988.

parados wrote:
This statement doesn't even make any sense ican.

The yearly average inflation rate decreased from 13.58% in 1980 to 4.08% in 1988, a 30.044% decrease.

Which part of this statement does not make sense to you?

The part preceding the comma came from:
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=1

The part following the comma--a 30.044% decrease--came from dividing the 4.08% inflation rate in 1988 by the 13.58% inflation rate in 1980 and multiplying the result by 100%.

SORRY! I SHOULD NOT HAVE DESCRIBED THAT AS: a 30.044% decrease. I SHOULD HAVE DESCRIBED THAT AS: a 69.956% decrease (I.E., 100% - 30.044%).
parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 05:06 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:
1980 Federal Receipts do not increase in quantity or value because of later inflation.
No, they DO increase because of inflation. A business that makes $1mill in 1980 would not think itself doing well if it only made $1million in 1988 because the value of the dollar is quite a bit less. A business that made $1.5 million in 1988 would have seen almost no growth in sales totals or employees. The only thing would be inflation would have made their product sell for 1.5 times what it did in 1980.


Let's do a simple electrical problem you hopefully can understand ican.
Suppose you have an electrical circuit with 8 test points.
You apply 120 volts to the circuit.
From where you applied the voltage to the first test point you lose 13.58% of the voltage.
At the second test point you find you lose 10.35% of the voltage measured at the first test point
At the third test point you lost 6.16% of the voltage at the second
At the fourth point you measure 3.22% less than at the third
At the fifth point you measure 4.3% less than at the fourth
At the sixth you measure 3.55% less than at the fifth
At the seventh you measure 1.91% less than voltage at the sixth
At the eighth you measure a 3.66% drop from the seventh.

Now calculate the total voltage loss over the entire circuit.



Would you be willing to argue that the voltage at the 8th point is exactly the same as the voltage applied to the circuit. Are you willing to argue that a 100watt bulb attached to the 8th point would be the same brightness as one attached to the start of the circuit?

Since the value of the 1980 dollar has been reduced by the same amounts in the simple electrical circuit are you really going to argue that you can refer to the 1988 dollar the same as the 1980 dollar?


Quote:
Which part of this statement does not make sense to you?

Gee, perhaps the part that you just corrected is what didn't make sense.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 06:11 pm
@parados,
Parados, the voltage would decrease from 120v over your entire specified circuit to: 2.97501E-11 x 120 = 3.57001E-09 volts.

Average inflation rates in each year over a period of years are not validly multipliable to arrive at a net inflation rate for the end of that period of years.

Had you asked what is the voltage after the 8th location (call it the 9th location), if the voltages at each of the 8 specified locations were your factors times 120v, you would have provided a valid analogy. The correct answers to that question are:

Location... Factor of 120v...Voltage
(1) ................ 0.1358..........16.296
(2) .................0.1035..........12.42
(3)................. 0.0616..........7.392
(4)................. 0.0322.........3.864
(5) .................0.0430.........5.16
(6) .................0.0355.........4.26
(7) .................0.0191.........2.292
(8) .................0.0366.........4.392
(9)......................?...............?

parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 06:22 pm
@ican711nm,
Holy CRAP ican..
And you claim you were an electrical engineer?

Quote:
You apply 120 volts to the circuit.
From where you applied the voltage to the first test point you lose 13.58% of the voltage.


120 volts reduced by .1358% is NOT 16.296 volts.

Either you are senile or you have never designed a damn thing in your life.

If you have a 13.58% loss over a circuit ican, what is the voltage at the test point?



Quote:
Average inflation rates in each year over a period of years are not validly multipliable to arrive at a net inflation rate for the end of that period of years.
Who multiplied average inflation rates other than you? I certainly didn't.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 06:30 pm
@parados,
His second column is the amount of voltage lost at each gate, not that this was the question.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 06:35 pm
@ican711nm,
parados wrote:
A business that makes $1mill in 1980 would not think itself doing well if it only made $1million in 1988 because the value of the dollar is quite a bit less. A business that made $1.5 million in 1988 would have seen almost no growth in sales totals or employees. The only thing would be inflation would have made their product sell for 1.5 times what it did in 1980.

If the inflation rate were 10% in 1980, but only 1% in 1988, then the value of $1 million in 1980 would be $900 thousand, and the value of $1 million in 1988 would be $990 thousand.

If in 1980 I deposited $1 million in a zero interest account when inflation was 10%, and left it there until 1988 when inflation was 1%, that deposit in 1988 would be worth $990 thousand.
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 06:43 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:
If in 1980 I deposited $1 million in a zero interest account when inflation was 10%, and left it there until 1988 when inflation was 1%, that deposit in 1988 would be worth $990 thousand.


Do you honestly believe that this is how inflation works?!?!

If you have 10% inflation in FY 1980 then your million dollars, deposited at the beginning of the year, is worth 10% less.

If inflation goes down to 8.5% next year, that million is now worth 8.5% less than the number at the END of FY 1980, not the beginning.

And so on. It's cumulative, not measured from some nebulous point.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  -1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 07:07 pm
@parados,
Parados, I would say a 15% increase in tax revenue, after adjusting for inflation, pretty well dispells your argument as well as Cyclop's argument. I did the math as well, after checking the inflation calculator from 1980 to 1988, which showed a 44% inflation factor. 44% seemed a bit high, but oh well, that is what I used, and I came up with over 14% growth of revenues even after throwing in the 44% inflation factor.

You mention adjusting for population growth, I would need to read about that, but at first thought it does not seem like it is logical that one could automatically assume that a growing population will automatically grow the economy in a proportional way. After all, it would depend upon a host of factors, such as average age of the population and what percentage of the population is going to contribute to the economy. For example, if the population is increasing in retired percentages, or the very young, those people are consumers but not necessarily producers. Also, if you have a few tens of millions of illegals that are avoiding paying taxes, that is also going to impact the situation.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:14 pm
Suppose we have a 2% inflation rate each year for a 10 year period.
What is $100 of Fed Receipts, obtained at the beginning of those 10 years, worth at the end of those ten years?

Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-2%)^10 = 100 x 98%^10 = 100 x o.8171 = $81.70?
Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-(2% x 10) = 100 x 80% = $80.00?
Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-2%) = 100 x 98% = $98?
Do you think what it's worth depends on what the Feds can buy with it?
Do you think what it's worth depends on how close the fed is to making the deficit = zero?
Do you think what it's worth depends on how competitive and productive the private sector has been?
Quote:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=1
YEAR AVE
2009 -0.34%
2008 3.85%
2007 2.85%
2006 3.24%
2005 3.39%
2004 2.68%
2003 2.27%
2002 1.59%
2001 2.83%
2000 3.38%
1999 2.19%
1998 1.55%
1997 2.34%
1996 2.93%
1995 2.81%
1994 2.61%
1993 2.96%
1992 3.03%
1991 4.25%
1990 5.39%
1989 4.83%
1988 4.08%
1987 3.66%
1986 1.91%
1985 3.55%
1984 4.30%
1983 3.22%
1982 6.16%
1981 10.35%
1980 13.58%
1979 11.22%
1978 7.62%
1977 6.50%


okie
 
  -2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:22 pm
I hate to have to do this, but I am going to post this video again, recording Obama's own proposal. I have been chastised here for repeatedly posting the evidence of Obama's Marxist connections and associations, but of course liberals do not like this, and even some conservatives seem to recoil at such a possibility, and even criticize my posts here.

But seriously folks, ask yourself after watching the following video again, would any centrist propose what Obama proposed in the video during the campaign. I believe it requires a dictator wannabe and and extreme leftist, probably a Marxist at heart, to propose such a thing.

I am very convinced that more people need to wake up and oppose this man, this president, that the mainstream media trumped up as a centrist, but no way is that even remotely possible folks, face it.



I wonder if Ayers helped give him this idea?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  -1  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:39 pm
Quote:

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=18935&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
NEW ZEALAND ROLLED BACK GOVERNMENT AND REBUILT ECONOMY
Prior to comprehensive reforms 20 years ago, New Zealand was an economic mess, suffering from debt, continual deficits, and a stagnating economy. Out of desperation, New Zealand's political leaders reduced government spending and enacted fundamental, wide-ranging reform. Since then, New Zealand's national government has seen a single deficit; it was this year and due to the worldwide recession, Byron Schlomach, director of the Goldwater Institute's Center for Economic Prosperity.

Maurice McTigue, director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and a former member of the New Zealand Parliament, explains:

In New Zealand, agriculture subsidies were artificially inflating land prices and everybody knew land prices would collapse when those subsidies ended.
Some estimated 31 percent of farmers and at least seven major banks would go bankrupt.
Yet, with no bailout or any other government involvement, only one-half of 1 percent of farmers went bankrupt.
And not a single bank went under.
An outbreak of "spontaneous economic order" resulted, says McTigue:

Banks re-valued loans to avoid defaults.
Farmers renegotiated payment schedules.
People figured out how to navigate the changing economy without government intervention.
This example may seem most applicable to federal financial policies in response to the U.S. real estate meltdown; but, the lesson is broader. We commonly hear stories that if states cut spending on parks or education or health care, our economy will collapse. Yet New Zealand's experience illustrates that fundamental reform, rethinking and shrinking of government should be welcomed, not feared, according to Schlomach.

Source: Byron Schlomach, "New Zealand rolled back government and rebuilt economy," Goldwater Institute, January 27, 2010.

For text:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/article/4339
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 08:54 pm
@okie,
Quote:
You mention adjusting for population growth, I would need to read about that, but at first thought it does not seem like it is logical that one could automatically assume that a growing population will automatically grow the economy in a proportional way. After all, it would depend upon a host of factors, such as average age of the population and what percentage of the population is going to contribute to the economy. For example, if the population is increasing in retired percentages, or the very young, those people are consumers but not necessarily producers. Also, if you have a few tens of millions of illegals that are avoiding paying taxes, that is also going to impact the situation.

So... you think more people don't need to eat more? drive more? use more furniture? go to more movies? The economy is driven by consuming. How can you not know that okie?
parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 09:10 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:
Location... Factor of 120v...Voltage
(1) ................ 0.1358..........16.296
(2) .................0.1035..........12.42
(3)................. 0.0616..........7.392
(4)................. 0.0322.........3.864
(5) .................0.0430.........5.16
(6) .................0.0355.........4.26
(7) .................0.0191.........2.292
(8) .................0.0366.........4.392
(9)......................?...............?


This is ridiculous ican. Your answer is wrong based on the question. It's obvious you were never an electrical engineer based on your answer.

The voltage at the first testpoint would be 103.704
If we lose 10.35% of that voltage, we lose 10.73 volts NOT 12.42.
Your numbers get progressively worse as to the actual voltage lost.

The voltage lost is from one part of the circuit to the next NOT from the power source to that point.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  3  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 09:13 pm
@parados,

Quote:
Also, if you have a few tens of millions of illegals that are avoiding paying taxes, that is also going to impact the situation.


A few tens of millions? Would that be more than a couple of tens of millions. or one tens of million?
Get a grip.
parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 09:25 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:
Suppose we have a 2% inflation rate each year for a 10 year period.
What is $100 of Fed Receipts, obtained at the beginning of those 10 years, worth at the end of those ten years?
Once again, you are making no sense. The Feds spent the money. We are talking the value of a 1988 dollar vs a 1980 dollar.

Quote:

Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-2%)^10 = 100 x 98%^10 = 100 x o.8171 = $81.70?
Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-(2% x 10) = 100 x 80% = $80.00?
Do you think it's worth $100 x (100%-2%) = 100 x 98% = $98?

I am curious which one you think ican and why.
parados
 
  2  
Thu 4 Feb, 2010 09:28 pm
@realjohnboy,
It does raise a question when the population only increased by 17 million but okie claims a few tens of millions of illegals showed up.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  -1  
Fri 5 Feb, 2010 02:19 am
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:


Quote:
Also, if you have a few tens of millions of illegals that are avoiding paying taxes, that is also going to impact the situation.


A few tens of millions? Would that be more than a couple of tens of millions. or one tens of million?
Get a grip.


I do have a grip, do you? Illegals flying under the radar screen in terms of taxes is a fact. I have no idea how many are doing that, but we know there are at least 10 or 12 million illegals, and possibly 20 million or more illegals in this country. I did not use the correct phraseology when I said "a few tens of millions, because I wrongly associated the illegal numbers with the uninsured numbers of 40 some million.

The point is not the exact number, the point is that the problem is significant, and I find it frustrating that the government doesn't seem to care enough about enforcing the law, and it is also frustrating to have fellow citizens acting as if it doesn't matter.

If it doesn't matter to you, I would suggest you get a grip, rjb. If I come across as a bit abrupt to you, please excuse me, because it irritates me that law abiding citizens have to pay for those that are not.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Fri 5 Feb, 2010 09:32 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo has the unpleasant habit of responding not to the point or argument he claims to be addressing, but rather to some other snippet of a point which suits him at the moment and then claiming in a rather bombastic and largely ignorant way that he has demolished whatever argument, observation or point that was at issue,

With respect to marginal tax rates, and Cyclo's claims of "doing the math", the simple fact is that if a marginal tax rate is reduced from (say) 40% to (say) 36% then if the amount of reported income subject to that tax rate increases (over any period of time) by more than the ratio of 40/36 (=10/9 = 1.1111, or a little over 11%) then the government will increse its revenue from that tax in real terms. Moreover,since the increase is concurrent, no present value adjustment is required.

This is the elementary mathematical issue which Cyclo claims to have mastered, but didn't address at all.

An 11% increase in some category of total income for the population is indeed a substantial thing. However, its occurrence over (say) a two year period would not amount to an unprecedented or even unusual occurrence in even reasonably good economic times. Many things can influence the amount of total income reported under such a tax. The obvious ones are real growth in earnings and an influx of people into the tax bracket in question - both results of overall economic growth (or inflation if the brackets aren't indexed). Another factor is a shrinkage in the underground (cash & barter) economy, or, stated another way, a reduction in the distortions to normal economic activity that results from the strategies (both legal and illegal) that people everywhere employ to evade taxes. All three phenomena (an increase in the number of taxpayers in the bracket in question; a real increase in their average reported income; and a shrinkage of the underground economy) occurred following the Kennedy and Reagan tax cuts in this country and those under Margaret Thatcher in the UK. All three tax cuts were followed by periods of high economic growth and relatively greater prosperity.

It would be wrong to assert that the subsequent periods of growth & prosperity were the exclusive result of the tax cuts. Many other faxtors were involved. However the tax cuts were indeed an associated and contributing factor to increased productive economic activity.

The counter example of excessive taxation crushing economic activity is also both true and demonstrable. At the other extreme most (not all) overtly socialist schemes to level wealth or directly mananage most of the the economic activity of a country have led to uniform poverty, corruption and various forms of tyranny. The obvious examples are the former USSR and its satellites, China before Deng, and most of the first generation governments of post colonial Africa. These stories are well-known & documented, and I won't elaborate on them.

There are relatively successful and equitable societies that do pursue far more extensive social welfare schemes and the attendant higher taxation levels than the USA. The Scandanavian countries and other European powers are examples. However they are very different from us in several important respects - having largely monolithic cultures; low levels of immigration (and little desire to see that change); and often awful histories of warfare, destruction and social revolution that have contributed to their contemporary "social contracts". It is my opinion that these countries are already in serious, and probably irreversable demographic decline, and the combined stresses arising from that and others associated with external population pressures are very likely to render their current systems thoroughly unsustainable. In short despite the imperfections of our system, it is more sustainable and better adapted to the actual conditions we face than the alternatives so eagerly sought by Cyclo and others.

The annual deficit in this country's government actual operations for the past year, and budget fort the next budget have oncreased dramatically. Facts that defenders of the administration habitually evade with claims that "it happened before their watch" or "it wasn't our fault". However, the clear trend implicit in the new budget and the political proposals of the Democrats is for growing dfeficits to create payoffs for their constituents, and growing taxes to pay for part (not all) of them - and no forseeable reduction of the deficit (apart from the unbelievable rosy assumptions they make for the out years).


That this would do irreparable harm to the economy appears beyond doubt. That the public has already become aroused to the danger is also beyond doubt. It is also increasingly evident that the Administration is becoming divided and somewhat paralyzed on these issues. The bold rhetoric continues about health care "reform"; increased spending and increased taxes (on others) to pat for some of it. However, to an increasing degree no real action is being taken.

The next ten months are likely to be interesting.
 

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