@hawkeye10,
There are about 29% of republicans who are hard core Bush/Palin supporters; they will never change their minds about their favorite president/candidate (for almost any office).
The biggest problem we now have is that the democratic base have become angry at Obama's administration, and they will stay home during the next few elections as more republicans get off their butts and go to the polls to vote. Moderates are a strange breed that can go for Palin if no other candidate looks "attractive" enough. Those are the same folks that voted for Bush twice.
Democrats are now in "self-defeat" mode, and Palin may have a good shot in 2012.