Can the US/UK Get Out Before the Civil War Starts in Iraq?

I'd like to see a few of those maps, so I can save them to CD. It will be interesting.

It's 2010.

We see here the value of not winning a war against Iraq, but waiting until the USA/UK have thrown everything into chaos. Iran, in my view, may end up having it's cake and Kuwait too, but I could be wrong about that. Saudi opposition may be strong enough to keep Kuwait under it's present autocratic system.

Syria spreads out taking all of Lebanon, you know they've wanted to do that for the longest time, and a nice chunk of Kurdish/Iraqi areas. Turkey just hangs on to what they've got as the song says and starts putting more and more weaponry on it's eastern borders.

The Kurds are left out in the cold again.

The Saudis meanwhile gain the territory they wanted after World War II. Congratulations, it's the only other part of the Middle East, besides Israel, that has no oil. Jordan offers to take some of it, but the Saudis princes can't bring themselves to do it.

Ahmad Chalabi becomes the new UN Ambassador from Iran. He takes a option to buy an apartment on York Ave on the New York's Upper East Side. He only attends opening sessions.

In 2011 the Iranian Air Force fires a long range missile out over the Indian Ocean. They fail to inform India of the schedule. The Indian Military goes on high alert and the Pakistanis seeing this, and despite urgent phone calls from President (Clinton)(Rice) [you pick] they attack India. Hamas, having received ample help from both Iran and Saudi Arabia for the past six years, engages in a full out assault on Israel which is repelled for six days until Syria joins in. The Israelis fight on expecting help from the USA and Europe. None arrives.

Ships in the harbors of every European nation and in New York, Baltimore, Beaumont (Texas), New Orleans and in the St. Lawrence Seaway begin exploding in a wild series of catastrophic proportions.

Meanwhile, India launchs missiles into the heart of Islamabad and Teheran.

Aljazeera announces it has a new tape but that all it contains is wild, uninhibited laughter.

Joe

It is a little too late for the US/UK to get it's troops out of Iraq. What they should do is to withdraw their forces to the borders to keep Iran, Syria and Iraqis other neighbors out of the fray. And let the Sunni's and Shiites have at it if they must. But under no circumstances should the take sides or get involved.

Iran would love for one or two of the Shiite factions to plead for assistance.

Joe

The so-called "civil war" has been simmering for decades. What we have here is tribalism with "nationhood" imposed by the West. Such tribalism seems to be minimally controllable by autocracy alone.

The coalition needs to cut its losses and get out.

I have a niece in Kurdistan (works for USAID) and based on her accounts I think you are underestimating the Kurd contribution to all this. Crucial to the the emergence of a nation is for a group of people to imagin themselves as one. Up to now for the most part the Kurds have not, the have imagin themselves as a ethic group. That is changing. In norther Iraqi they have had not only 15 years experience as an independent self governing entity. They are rapidly building an independent infrastructure, roads communication, a military that is more than a militia and only tentatively connected to the Iraqi national army. For example, the internal road network they are building does not connect to the Iraqi road system. Also, they do not expect help from anyone else. I suspect they could handel Syria, could make it very hot for the Turks, and I doubt the Iranians would bother. If Iraq implodes you will probably see and independent Kurdistan.

Acquiunk



Well, you may be right, but the Kurds have been without a country for several centuries. The country they were promised after World War I disappeared in a hail of Turkish and Iranian gunfire. Here is the problem for them. They are spread across Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. That's a lot of folks to repel and they still end up being landlocked in one of the most mountainous regions of the world.

Plus there is this:
Kurdistan has among the largest oil reserves in the Middle East and the world. With about 45 billion barrels, Kurdistan contains more and larger proven deposits than the entire United States, and ranks 6th in the world. These reserves are spread over a thin band on the margins between the high mountains and the foothills, from far southern Kurdistan to extreme western Kurdistan near the Mediterranean Sea. Source

Even if they were able to establish themselves as a free and independent country, they would still have to work with the Syrians, the Turks and the Iranians to move their oil through the pipelines.

Still possible, but I don't think any of them will assist the Kurds in achieving nationhood, they would rather keep them semi-autonomous and productive.

Joe(we'll see.)Nation

PS Where's your map?

Excuse me but where did the "forecast" map of 2010 for Iran come from?

I made it up.

Joe

Now you do one.

It's a perverse way of looking at it. The US and UK tried to replace the vacuum caused by the old regime's defeat with a constitutional democracy, and have spent a lot of energy and money trying to rebuild infrastructure. The chaos has been caused by the insurgents throwing bombs in every direction, and taking hostages for blackmail.

Reality bites, Brandon. We have used our blood and treasure and the beneficiaries shall be the mullahs of Iran. That's what happens when you let a bunch of idealogues pursue their vision, or should I their version, of history. Bush/Cheney will be remembered as the ones who truly believed in the Al Queda/Iraq connection. Cheney said we would be greeted as liberators, Bush spoke darkly of the weapons of mass destruction, both visions turned out to figments of something like imagination, but perhaps more like fantasys. Too late to do much about all that now.

But regarding the future....


Do you have another view? What does your map look like?

Joe

I suppose, it will finally - after thousands more have died - end like on the Balcan and look similar to this

Interesting Walter, especially the divided Baghdad and stretching the Iraqi Arab Republic all the way across the area from Jordan to Iran.

And of course, two additions to the United Nations.

Joe

Duh. Maybe something like that:

What about all those Kurds left in Turkey? Aren't they going to start agitating to join up with the new mother country? How do you think that will play out?

Kuwait remains unscathed. How do they do that? Not that I think they won't, but what prevents either Saudi Arabia or Iran from moving in on all the free oil?

Joe(nice maps all)Nation

I heard a Bush sound byte on the radio this morning where he said, "It's going to take time to restore the chaos, but we will do it."

Is that an old quote? New one? Was he referring to the situation in Iraq?

I will await enlightenment.

Depends whether Turkey would really try to reform some essential aspects of doing business in an effort to join the European Union, or not. I'd say they are more eager to gain 'access' to the EU and rather be passive about the Kurds, maybe even giving them more rights, eventually.... while at the same time an independent (and in comparison rather stable) Kurdistan might attract those currently living in Turkey and Iran.

I think that the same dynamic that prevents Saudi Arabia or Iran from moving into the Arab Emirates would prevent them from moving into Kuwait. Kuwait would generate an outcry, whereas Iraq basically is chaos (and getting worse) and those involved (i.e. the coalition of the willing) would, at one point, probably not give a damn about what happens to the place. Especially if civil war would keep on getting worse.

If everything would be done under some pseudo-democratic proceedings (I'm thinking along the lines of a referendum where, let's say, 97 percent of those questioned would vote in favor of an Anschluss with Iran), I can't see too much resistance.

The northern part of Iraq... Well, I just think nobody could be bothered to start a fight about a fairly large amount of essentially desert. Even if the Saudi-Iraqi border might fluctuate a bit (much like the borders with the various emirates have), I don't think it'd be of interest to anyone.

Old Europe:

Very well put, not many Americans have been following Turkey's progress, or lack thereof, in getting full membership in the EU. They, the Turks, can't be very pleased with what is going on next door in Iraq.


Does anyone think the map won't change at all? \


Joe

First, you have ignored every bit of my argument, so I assume that you cannot negate it.

Second, based on the totality of past events, at the moment of invasion, there was some probability that Hussein still had WMDs and WMD programs, and was simply continuing to hide them. The probability was large enough to be unacceptable, taking into account Hussein's evil and the power of the weapons. Invasion was better than taking a chance on the total destruction of some city by WMDs a few years down the road.