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The beginning of the end? (For Tony Blair)

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 May, 2006 09:24 pm
BBC just declared the "projected national share of the vote".

This is the calculation of how the national British population would have voted if there had been local elections across the country (rather than only in a quarter of the councils). It's supposed to be a biggie, because it is the only available indicator of what nation-wide popular sentiment is.

Results:

40% Conservatives - their best result in local elections since 1992; up 2% compared to 2004 (under Howard), up 5% compared with 2002; up 7% compared to 1998 (under Duncan Smith, or was it Hague?); and up 13% from the last local elections under Major's leadership of the Tories (when Labour still polled 46%..). A very consistent growth, thus. But not a drastic leap or trendbreak for Cameron.

27% Liberal Democrats - pushing Labour into third place, but not doing any better than in the 2004 elections

26% Labour - an equally bad result as in 2004; but not a worse result (no "meltdown")

7% Others

Something in the interpretation for everyone... ;-) ... but obviously a good night for the Tories, a bad night for Labour (even if its not as bad as it could have been), and a disappointing night for the Libdems.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 May, 2006 09:35 pm
Ha. <grimace>. The BBC is interviewing the BNP's Griffin. The guy is quoting pieces from the BNP's own Manifesto and website to him.

There's the bizarre: the BNP demands, for example, that all schools will only offer one kind of schoolmeal again (no vegetarian and, of course, no halal alternatives).

But there's also the extreme, and a striking TV moment took place when Griffin denied that his party stood for opposition against interracial marriage, only for the interviewer to then literally quote from the BNP's own website to him, where it does excoriate the badness of interracial marriage...
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 May, 2006 11:40 pm
Looks like it's the middle of the end for Tony Blair.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 02:56 am
Thanks for the rolling analysis nimh, read all your recent posts and noted times posted! Saved me from sitting up all night. You really are a nerd* aren't you? Smile

*common name for psephologist
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 03:36 am
Ha ha! Yep, absof*ckinglutely.

Looking back on staying up the night tho, I gotta admit that, however interesting any election is to a nerd, I mean, psephothingemie, like me, especially if its got colorful maps and all, this really wasn't quite worth it. I mean, all in all, results, as they came in during the night (I havent clicked to see whats happened since I went to bed yet), were quite unsurprising and unrevealing - very much in the middle of what one would have expected anyway. Apart from the Libdems doing worse than expected, which doesnt make me happy.

In other news, an impromptu informal focus group poll by LABR(at) Int. showed that close to 100% of respondents expressed grave disappointment at the performance, this time round, of David Dimbleby and the BBC technical department. An overwhelming majority of the admittedly limited sample of 1 thought the presentation of a broadcaster otherwise known for its baffling excellence in arrays of graphs, stats, maps and quirky gadgets unique in the world, this time was clunky, slow and awkward. The survey also revealed that 67% of stats quoted in online conversation is made up on the spot.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 03:47 am
Well your Labrat int inc. focus group of 1 (whats the singular of group?) is right. The BBC and have lost it when it comes to rolling news. The international version of BBC news 24 is ok, and their website is ok, but live tv programs for domestic consumption are crap.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 04:07 am
meanwhile addressing thread topic

Quote:
Voters have delivered a decisive and damaging verdict on British prime minister Tony Blair who now faces the judgement of his own party on his future as prime minister.


(BBC)
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 04:42 am
nimh wrote:
Ha. <grimace>. The BBC is interviewing the BNP's Griffin. The guy is quoting pieces from the BNP's own Manifesto and website to him.

There's the bizarre: the BNP demands, for example, that all schools will only offer one kind of schoolmeal again (no vegetarian and, of course, no halal alternatives).

But there's also the extreme, and a striking TV moment took place when Griffin denied that his party stood for opposition against interracial marriage, only for the interviewer to then literally quote from the BNP's own website to him, where it does excoriate the badness of interracial marriage...

The interview with Griffin should be online here, btw - recommended viewing! Shocked
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 05:43 am
WOOO

Blood on the carpet

Quote:
Charles Clarke has been sacked as home secretary in the biggest cabinet reshuffle of Tony Blair's career.
but not Tony's...yet.

(bbc)
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 07:30 am
http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/5783/ukdt9ck.jpg

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00105/p1-05_05_06_105908b.jpg
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 07:40 am
no sound card unfortunately and never learned to lip read however can guess what he said

out of interest

Quote:
The British National Party has more than doubled its number of council seats in England from 20 to 44. But, historically, gains by far-right parties in UK elections have tended to be short-lived. Oswald Mosley's New Party, formed in 1931, panicked the political mainstream when its candidates gained 16% of the vote, but it never came close to winning a seat at Westminster and was later subsumed into the British Union of Fascists...


(bbc)
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 08:10 am
BM (how did I miss my favorite politician's thread?)
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 01:09 pm
Just to wrap this up properly..

Results for all but 1 of the 176 local councils in which seats were at stake are in - and below you'll see what it looks like.

The results that have come in since last night (many from London) have worsened the assessment on how Labour did, improved that of the Tories, and continued the pattern for the Libdems.

They also put George Galloway's Respect on the map; it got 11 seats in Tower Hamlets, the heart of London's Eastend, alone, pushing the Conservatives and Libdems into third and fourth place there. (Its gains were notably at the expense of the Libdems, not Labour.) Respect still expects more seats in neighbouring Newham, the one council where counting apparently isnt complete.

Note: If I understand it correctly, the total number of councillors on the right, below, is the total number of the respective parties' councillors in the councils where elections took place. There were also many councils in which no elections took place. Eg, the total number of BNP seats across the country now is 47 (if I got it right), not 32. Same for other parties.

Code: Councillors

Net +/- Total

Conservative +317 1830

Labour -317 1385

Liberal Democrat + 2 909

Residents Assoc - 13 35

BNP + 27 32

Green + 20 29

Respect + 12 13

Liberal - 2 8

Others - 49 117


Judging on the neat Guardian guidelines to measure the parties' success with, yesterday was thus, compared to prior expectations:

- For Labour, slightly less than OK, but not bad
- For the Conservatives, OK up to good
- For the Libdems, close to disastrous.

To relativate both the scope (-317) and the significance of Labour's losses, just read through this BBC overview of earlier eye-catching local elections. In 2003, for example, after the Iraq invasion had started, Labour lost 812. And in 1995, still nationally under John Major, the Tories lost nearly 2,000 seats - and that was at the end of a decade of already progressively worse scores.

Nevertheless, the reaction of the Labour council leader in Stoke, Mick Salih, who lost his seat last night, is telling: he said the party had become "a Tory party in disguise". He told BBC Radio Stoke he had had "enough of the Labour party". "I shall not be renewing my membership and that is a fact. It is not the Labour party I joined years ago." (bbc).
0 Replies
 
oldandknew
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 02:52 pm
The electorate has spoken & Blair's Hole in the Wall Gang is on the run.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 May, 2006 08:35 pm
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
no sound card unfortunately and never learned to lip read

I posted a transcript of most of the Griffin (BNP) / Dimbleby (BBC) interview here, on the other thread.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 May, 2006 08:36 pm
nimh wrote:
Note: If I understand it correctly, the total number of councillors on the right, below, is the total number of the respective parties' councillors in the councils where elections took place. There were also many councils in which no elections took place. Eg, the total number of BNP seats across the country now is 47 (if I got it right), not 32. Same for other parties.

Yep, I got that right.

In comparison: the Green party may have gone from 9 to 29 seats in the councils contested this week, but all in all they now have 90 local councillors in England, leading it to observe that "it had enforced its position as the fourth political party".
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 May, 2006 06:14 am
It seems the anti Blair momentum within the Labour party is gathering.

Quote:
The Chancellor is now expected to open discussions with the Prime Minister on how to recover from the crisis engulfing the government, talks thought to include the explosive issue of a handover of power. Despite insistence in Downing Street that conversations between the two are purely routine, it is understood Blair is prepared to discuss the transition in what will be seen as an attempt to calm rebel MPs, who have given Blair a week to publish a timetable for his departure.


My head tells me that Blair will announce his departure and a leadership contest for his successor at the party conference in the Autumn. But my heart thinks he will be pushed out before then...

Anyroad up this is the not end of the beginning, much nearer the beginning of the end for the world's number one favorite politician....Smile
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 May, 2006 06:47 am
Yeah the last straw (no pun intended) was £7500 of my money and yours to keep Cherie's hair looking awful during the election. What a liberty.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 May, 2006 07:10 am
Do you think he's bonking that Carol Caplin woman?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 May, 2006 08:23 am
Quote:
[A] Times poll [..] showed Labour's public support has slumped to its lowest level for 14 years in the wake of recent troubles.

It found the Tories had stormed into an eight-point lead as Mr Blair attempted to quell the internal revolt.

Labour's 30-point rating in the Populus poll was its lowest since 1992 - and down six points in the last month.

The prime minister's drastic reshuffle was dismissed by three in four voters as a bid to deflect attention from the foreign prisoner releases, NHS job cuts, Mr Prescott's affair and poor local election results.

In fact, more than half of voters believed the government's biggest problem was now the prime minister himself, with just 31% wanting him to stay beyond the end of the year - down 11 percentage points.

And almost two-thirds agreed that if things continued in the same vein, Labour would lose the next general election.

Mr Cameron broke new ground by being the first Tory leader to move ahead of Mr Blair in public popularity over the past nine years.


Brown: transition should be orderly
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