Coronavirus Diaries

$1200 in May. Only selected people get any. Trillions for the ones that each rivals Scrooge McDuck with his four cubic acres of money. Disgusting.

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@maxdancona,

I believe you are talking about the arithmetic of current cases, deaths and recoveries, and not the underlying mathematics of the epidemic.

The total caseload will follow the trajectory of the Logistics curve with a period of exponential growth starting at zero, and followed by an inflection point at which the rate of growth reaches a maximum and starts decreasing (and at which the active case load reaches a peak), followed by continued growth at a decreasing rate, becoming asymptotic as the level of herd immunity is approached at somewhere in the vicinity of ~ 90% of the population. The active case load will conversely follow a bell curve, peaking at the same inflection point at which recoveries first equal new infections.

Right now we're in the first exponential growth phase, as you indicate. However the total caseload is indeed approaching a fairly constant rate, meaning we are indeed approaching the inflection point. The emergence of a significant new geographic area of fast growing infections (such as New York)could adversely affect that (just as the introduction of a more effective treatment modality help it). The three week duration of infections before recovery means the increase in recovered cases (which began in earnest a few days ago) will continue at an accelerating rate.

I believe Easter is a bit optimistic but that Trump was correct in raising the issue now.

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@Lash,

Lash wrote:

I prefer that he acquiesce to the expertise of medical professionals, epidemiologists, and those who've been following the pathology of this pandemic--and he should have kept his stupid mouth shut about "I heard there's a National Enquirer-sponsored cure..." that did result in people's deaths.

Anything else is reckless with millions of lives.

Who are the professionals to which you refer.?

I believe Trump is indeed consulting with such a team of them and also, in typical Trumpian fashion, challenging and leading them. Nothing wrong in that.

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@georgeob1,

I started another thread on the math. I have calculated out the numbers assuming a constant exponential growth until 4/27 (where the number reaches 1.5 million deaths).

At some point, when we approach the "inflection point" the numbers will start diverging from exponential growth. This clearly isn't happening. Until the numbers actually start to diverge from exponential growth, the imminent arrival the inflection point is just wishful thinking.

Any mathematical discussion would be better on the Corona virus math thread.

https://able2know.org/topic/546733-1

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@georgeob1,

I think there’s something seriously wrong with an uneducated huckster ‘challenging’ or ‘leading’ medical professionals.

He needs to listen to them and step away from the mic when they share their expertise.

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

I believe Trump is indeed consulting with such a team of them and also, in typical Trumpian fashion, challenging and leading them. Nothing wrong in that.

If Trump follows through on this ridiculous Easter timeline against the advice of the scientific experts... that will be worst outcome, and it should be pinned on Trump.

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@maxdancona,

This is where the general strike talk comes from. Some people are planning to ignore commands to return to work early.

I hope we’ll support fellow Americans put in this position by Trump’s idiocy.

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@Lash,

I am not sure if a general strike is either effective or necessary.

When he starts lifting the restrictions, he becomes politically responsible for the increased deaths. His problem is that he keeps vacillating between reality and political wishful thinking.

I don't think he will stick with wishful thinking for very long, it will cost him politically (which is what he cares about).

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

I believe Trump is indeed consulting with such a team of them and also, in typical Trumpian fashion, challenging and leading them. Nothing wrong in that.

Please george, dont lt your political leaning interfere with what you know as a professional in ecision making. Even Eisenhower didnt set sail on a D Day that wasnt forecast by hi meteorological staffers.

If Trump or someon in his staff line fires Dr Faucio , would you change your mind? (applying a little of a personal "falsification " hypothesis)

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@maxdancona,

If you don’t mind—or if you do—I won’t die to prove a point about Trump.

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@maxdancona,

ANY leader that exchanges our population;s lives for a self aggrandizing business scheme which basically says that people should be proud to sacrifice themselves for the good of the economy, should be faced with a YOU FIRST directive . Anybody can be an elected leader in a Democratic Republic, weve proven that several times over,(not just this election round). Every four yars we refine further the answer to the question of "HOW SMART MUST YOU REALLY BE TO BECOME PRESIDENT OR GOVERNOR ) or any level of legislator.

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@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

Quote:
I believe Trump is indeed consulting with such a team of them and also, in typical Trumpian fashion, challenging and leading them. Nothing wrong in that.

Please george, dont lt your political leaning interfere with what you know as a professional in ecision making. Even Eisenhower didnt set sail on a D Day that wasnt forecast by hi meteorological staffers.

If Trump or someon in his staff line fires Dr Faucio , would you change your mind? (applying a little of a personal "falsification " hypothesis)

I believe a good leader should always get and consider the advice of the several professionals who can assist in his decision making, and should try to find a synthesis or balance in their advice even as the advice, coming from different professional perspectives leads to conflicting recommendations on the issue at hand . In the case in question the issues involved serious issues affecting both immediate public health and the economy that sustains everyone including the various professionals and our ability to carry out the medical programs so sorely needed. In short there is no course of action that meets the "requirements" of ALL the professionals involved at the same time - a situation such leaders encounter frequently.

I've been there many times and learned to ; identify the possible paths ahead and tradeoffs to the staff ( to get them thinking outside their lanes) ; keep my options open as long as the situation permits ( even to the discomfort of some of the "professionals") ; and make my decisions with as much current information as I can get, and as such decisions become really necessary.

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@georgeob1,

Reading this raises an interesting question...

Is there anything that Trump could do that you would criticize?

I have no problem pointing out the things that Trump has done that I thought was correct. I had no problem criticizing Obama for things he did that I felt were incorrect.

This unwillingness to question or criticize anything Trump says or does is a little troubling.

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@maxdancona,

Yes, there are many such possibilities, some have materialized others have not.

Your self-congratulation is noted.

Your troubles are your own: not mine.

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The bailout when Bush was leaving and Obama coming is very similar to the boondoggle we have today. The corporations are angling to get it all if possible. The pittance for the poor will require further action to keep people from dying and or stealing and robbing to survive.

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@georgeob1,

Pre-conceived prejudices? That's rich, coming from you. For less than two trillion dollars, as I have pointed out at several times, and in several places, can be used to give every employee for whom 941 payments have been deposited in this fiscal year $2000 a month for the next six months. That doesn't include me, so I'm not talking about cashing in myself. You, however, are singing a song of corporate bailout which very likely would benefit your corporation(s). Two thousand dollars a month to almost 158,000,000 Americans would allow them to pay the rent and feed their families. Corporations forced to seek bankruptcy protection are merely ailing, they're
not dead. Don't piss down my leg and tell me it's raining. The constitution begins: We, the people . . . It does not begin, We, the corporate boards.

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@Setanta,

We the people includes me and George. Neither of us are corporations (although like many people, I work for one).

Extremists on both sides seem to forget thar 'we the people" includes people who don't agree with their political ideology.

I want money to be used to keep important businesses open preventing econnomic pain for average Americans. I do support many of the conditions added by Democrats.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

A complete economic collapse would injure many people, and cripple our efforts to treat the sick and combat the spread of the disease. Do you deny that? Perhaps you live in a world of absolutes of your own design. The real world which we all inhabit is far more complex than that and does indeed involve tradeoffs.

What a steaming pile of crap. The US already doesn’t treat the sick. Why the **** would you start because of this pandemic

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Thank you. Such things don't occur to George in his particular fantasy world of political absolutes.

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